Roundtables
ROUNDTABLE (pt. 3 of 3): Pay-per-view buyrate predictions for UFC 113 through UFC 116 - Schielke, Lee, Park, Hansen, Matthew and Penick
May 18, 2010 - 2:40:47 PM ROUNDTABLE (pt. 3 of 3): Pay-per-view buyrate predictions for UFC 113 through UFC 116 - Schielke, Lee, Park, Hansen, Matthew and Penick

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With a number of exciting fight cards on deck for the UFC this summer, how well do you think the next few pay-per-view events can do? Predict the buyrates for UFC 113-116.

JASON SCHIELKE, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR

I predict that UFC's 113-116 will do (in my best Dr. Evil voice) one hundred BILLION buys!!! Now all kidding aside, I believe that 113 will do somewhere in the 450K-550K range; 114 will do around 500K-600K; 115 will hit 325K-375K; and 116 will be the grand champion hitting in the neighborhood of 700K-800K. Brock Lesnar has proven that he can sell pay-per-views, and I don't think this is going to be an exception.

Also, I wanted to touch base with you and let you know that I'm working on a piece about various problems that I believe exist in various aspects of judging and the rules. I got in contact with Tim Lueckenhoff, President of the ABC and the Missouri Division of Athletics, in hopes that he may be able to shed some light on some of the topics I plan on hitting on. He told me that he "will have to get approval from his department before providing any information." and also told me that he would try to get whatever answers he is able to provide to me by tomorrow since he will be in his office all day. Here's hoping!

ERIC LEE, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR

I think this summer will be a major plus for the UFC. UFC 113 Will be very similar in buyrate to UFC 104 when Machida and Shogun first fought. My estimate is around 500,000. UFC 114 is the long awaited Rampage vs. Evans fight that a season of Ultimate Fighter trash talking has built up. My guess is around 700,000-800,000. After that is the return of Chuck Liddell which is still probably the biggest and most well known name in the world of MMA. My estimate is around 700,000. Now the biggest draw of the summer will be UFC 116 and the long awaited return of Brock Lesnar. I am expecting a full 1,000,000 buys for this event. There's a lot to look forward to this summer.

CHRIS PARK, MMATORCH UK SPECIALIST

Its a difficult one for me to judge as we dont have PPV for MMA in the UK. I would expect UFC 116 to be the biggest card of the year by some distance. It will probably even be the biggest since UFC 100.

113 and 114 have great match-ups on offer so I would expect them to be more successful than most of what we have seen so far in 2010.

As for 115? I'm not sure on this one. Chuck Liddell vs. Rich Franklin is coming three years too late but I prefer this over Tito Ortiz any day of the week.

I'm thinking good figures for the two May events, probably the top two so far in 2010. Then a bit of a lull for 115 before a hugely successful event at UFC 116.

BJORN HANSEN, MMATORCH COLUMNIST

UFC 113: (700K) Remember Kimbo was MMA’s biggest X-factor when it comes to drawing power. Machida and Shogun pulled 500K last time around, and nobody gave Shogun a chance. A deeper card, a more anticipated (re)match, and the street legend they call Kimbo could bump this rate significantly.

UFC 114: (600K) One of the best prefight hype commercials I’ve ever seen. TUF 10 finally pays off. (but still no championship bout)

UFC 115: (500k) Chuck is good. No Thiago Alves or Jon Fitch is bad. The card has enough depth that it’ll remain strong, but it lacks any serious implications. No championship bouts again, will hurt buyrates.

UFC 116: (950K) One word: Brock. He’s missing Georges St. Pierre, so I think the magical one million mark will be out of reach. But, just barely. Expect this to be one of the “biggest”, in every sense of the word, events of the year, if not history.

SAM MATTHEW, MMATORCH COLUMNIST

The next few PPV events are shaping up nicely for Zuffa. Starting with the upcoming UFC 113, I’m expecting the PPV buyrates to at least break a million, maybe slightly less just because of the over-saturation of MMA PPV events recently. However, with the big Shogun/Machida rematch headlining, and the insanely popular Kimbo’s presence on the main card, this PPV could get close to UFC 100’s record breaking numbers (1.5 – 1.7 million estimated buys).

UFC 114 will probably get 700,000 buys, but certainly won’t break a million, not with just Rampage Jackson and Rashad Evans to spotlight the show and the rest of the card looking pretty weak, especially with Forrest Griffin pulling out of the co-main event due to injury and a much lesser known Jason Brilz taking his spot against Antonio Rogerio Nogueira.

UFC 115 might get close to a million buys, but probably won’t clear it. “The Iceman” Chuck Liddell earned himself a lot of fans as the light-heavyweight champ at the same time that Rich Franklin was owning his middleweight division. This sets up a great main event between two aging strikers fighting to stay in the game.

UFC 116 is the big one for Zuffa. It’s the return of the giant, Brock Lesnar back from the brink of death and he’s taking on the man who has to be considered his most legitimate challenger, Shane Carwin. The heavyweight division is the real prize in MMA now, just like it once was in boxing, and this UFC’s PPV buyrates may actually exceed the last Lesnar appearance on UFC 100. And with Wanderlei Silva taking on Yoshihiro Akiyama in the co-main event, I’m predicting 1.5 million buys for this epic summer event.

JAMIE PENICK, MMATORCH EDITOR-IN-CHIEF

This should be a very good stretch of business for the UFC, as the two events this month have big time matchups in the main event. Last week's UFC 113 card with the Shogun-Machida rematch I'd have to imagine did better business than the first one, so I'd put it around a little over 550,000. There is still difficulty in selling a fight to pay-per-view buying fans between two guys who don't speak much English.

As for UFC 114, losing Forrest Griffin hurts, but people will be tuning in for the main event alone anyway. The return of the UFC Primetime series helps rebuild the hype for the fight and helps to re-establish the bad blood these two developed for each other. They really don't like one another, and that's more than enough reason to want to see them fight. It's hard to gauge this one a bit because it's kind of a one fight card, but with the buildup from the Ultimate Fighter, along with the Primetime show, I think it can push it to the 700,000 range.

UFC 115 is clearly the weakest card of the bunch, and though it has two of the UFC's longtime draws and fan favorites in the main event in Chuck Liddell and Rich Franklin, it's the least important main event of the summer. With UFC 116 around the corner, this will be seen as skippable by a lot of fans. It will be on the low end for the UFC, but still might surpass 400,000.

Brock Lesnar's return at UFC 116 is the biggest fight of the year for the UFC. The only thing that can surpass it is if Lesnar wins in impressive fashion and then they pair his fight with Cain Velasquez with the GSP-Koscheck fight in December. This fight against Shane Carwin is a big deal, made bigger by Carwin's victory over Frank Mir in March. With an international superfight between two stars of Japanese MMA in Wanderlei Silva against Yoshihiro Akiyama adds to it for sure. The Floyd Mayweather vs. Shane Mosely fight reportedly did 1.4 million buys earlier this month, and this fight will pull comparable numbers. In fact I'd put it right at that mark as a solid middle guess. Give or take 200K, I'd expect the fight to draw around that number.

UPCOMING ROUNDTABLE QUESTIONS

•Tim Sylvia said this week he'd like to make a return to the UFC or perhaps fight in Strikeforce following his fight at the Moosin event on Friday. Can Big Tim compete with any of the top 15 or 20 fighters in the UFC and Strikeforce at this point in his career?

•What commentary duo or trio would you like to see on Strikeforce broadcasts on Showtime or CBS and why?

•What are the ramifications for Strikeforce and Fedor if a bout with Alistair Overeem fails to come to fruition in the organization this year for any reason outside of Fedor losing to Werdum or an injury taking place?

•Predict the outcome of Rampage vs. Rashad at UFC 114. Who wins and how does the fight go down?

•If Strikeforce and Bellator successfully co-promote a bout between Gilbert Melendez and Eddie Alvarez, who would you pick in that fight and why?

RELATED STORIES: Part one of this roundtable with responses from Hansen, Carter, Hobaugh, Williams and Amadi: [CLICK TO READ FULL ARTICLE]

Part one of this roundtable with responses from Shelby, DeBar, Perez, Leet, Hyden and Pelkey: [CLICK TO READ FULL ARTICLE]