Roundtables
ROUNDTABLE (pt. 2 of 3): Pay-per-view buyrate predictions for UFC 113 through UFC 116 - Shelby, DeBar, Perez, Leet, Hyden and Pelkey
May 17, 2010 - 9:59:09 PM ROUNDTABLE (pt. 2 of 3): Pay-per-view buyrate predictions for UFC 113 through UFC 116 - Shelby, DeBar, Perez, Leet, Hyden and Pelkey

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With a number of exciting fight cards on deck for the UFC this summer, how well do you think the next few pay-per-view events can do? Predict the buyrates for UFC 113-116.

TOBEN SHELBY, MMATORCH AUDIO CO-HOST

With a slate of solid cards (on paper) coming up for the UFC, I think we’ll see that some recent poor buyrates have been a result of lack of interest in the matchups and not overexposure. I expect fans to have come out big for Lyoto Machida vs. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua II and Quinton “Rampage” Jackson vs. Rashad Evans. I put both in the 700,000 to 800,000 range. Both cards are bolstered by solid undercards – and let’s not forget the X-factor known as Kimbo Slice that was on UFC 113. Do monstrous TV numbers equal PPV buys?

I have lower expectations for UFC 115. I think Chuck Liddell still sells, but not nearly as well as he used to. Rich Franklin’s been one of the UFC’s key utility players for a while now, but I don’t know if he has the name value to bring in big buys. I’ll guess around 500,000 for UFC 115.

Finally, UFC 116 could be huge. Brock Lesnar is a proven commodity and I think with it being his comeback fight against the heavy-handed Shane Carwin, UFC 116 could get close to one million buys. It needs the proper hype, but considering the highlight reels the main-eventers have put together so far, it’s definitely a possibility.

CORY DEBAR, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR

Predicting buy rates is like predicting the Kentucky Derby winner. It’s difficult when you consider the rash of injuries to fighters on recent cards. However, I hope MMA continues to grow and the UFC helps lead the way with a great summer. I will go with the sure thing. Lesnar vs. Carwin will be the overall winner eclipsing the 1 million mark.

ANWAR PEREZ, MMATORCH COLUMNIST

The next few PPV's for the UFC will do huge numbers. The organization is about to launch UFC Undisputed 2010 on Xbox360 and Playstation 3, Rampage Jackson and Rashad Evans are the subject of UFC Prime Time, Jackson will have a starring role in the A-Team movie, and Brock Lesnar is making his much anticipated return. This is the summer of the UFC. I believe that the buyrates will be around 350,000 up to the one million mark. The return of Brock Lesnar alone could net the UFC its biggest buy rate ever and could mean even greater business for the UFC than they ever hoped for.

FRANK HYDEN, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR

I think UFC 116 will draw a huge buyrate. Brock Lesnar returning to the Octagon is big money. Plus, they can sell Carwin on his absolute destruction of every opponent he's fought so far. If they put some other good fights on there, I think UFC 116 breaks the 1.6 million buyrate number that UFC 100 got. I think 1.9 million sounds about right for the ceiling, and 1.5 million is about the lowest I'd go.

I don't think that UFC 115 will draw big numbers at all, relative to that. Chuck Liddell vs. Rich Franklin as the headline will draw in nostalgic fans. I'd have to predict about 415,000-450,000 buys. Not horrible numbers by any means, but not breaking records either.

UFC 114 has Rashad Evans vs. Quinton "Rampage" Jackson in the grudge match of the year. Forrest Griffin fights on this card, as does Michael Bisping. Diego Sanchez is also on the card. I think this event has the potential to reach 900,000 buys. The hype has been strong for this show. For my prediction, I'll go with 835,000 buys.

UFC 113 has Lyoto Machida vs. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua, as well as Kimbo Slice fighting. Josh Koscheck vs. Paul Daley is actually the fight I'm most looking forward to on this card. I'll go a little high here, and say 685,000 buys.

LARAMEY LEET, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR

The events this summer are all great, but two stand superior to the others and I think that UFC 114 and 116 are going to be huge. With the Primetime series being used for UFC 114 I expect the ratings to be huge. Evans and Jackson are going to hype up this fight so much that it might just break a record or two. TEAM JACKSON!

With Brock Lesnar making his return to the Octagon the buyrate will be massive, Lesnar always has crushing numbers and I do not think that these will disappoint. If it came down to the two I think that UFC 114 will sell more, but that is just the marketing from The Ultimate Fighter, Primetime, and it’s a month away and the commercials are already beginning.

MATT PELKEY, MMATORCH COLUMNIST

All these shows fall in a nice little upswing for the UFC that started with UFC 111 and should continue at least through UFC 118. As for each of those four shows: UFC 113 is headlined by the same Machida-Shogun fight that I believe did in the neighborhood of 400,000 buys the first time. I think 500,000 is a reachable goal and would have to be considered a success.

UFC 114 is headlined by Rashad-Rampage (at long last), but it just lost its #2 fight when Forrest Griffin had to pull out, and despite the fact that it will benefit from a Primetime series to hype the Rashad-Page encounter, I still think 600,000 is a lofty goal.

UFC 115 is obviously the weak link of the four being headlined by Chuck Liddell's return against Rich Franklin, but Liddell is still (STILL!) one of the UFC's top draws and I expect his return to the main event to at least approach half a million buys. That would have to be considered a monumental success for a card headlined by a fight with no real ramifications whatsoever.

If 115 is the weak link, 116 is the big dog. It's Brock Lesnar's return, and he'll be facing Shane Carwin in what will be billed as the biggest heavyweight fight in the sport's history. Anything less than 1,000,000 buys would have to be considered a disaster, and while I think it'll coast past that mark, I'm not sold that it'll surpass UFC 100 as the biggest show in MMA history. I think it'll settle comfortable in the 1.2-1.3 million buy range.


RELATED ARTICLE: Part one of this roundtable with responses from Hansen, Carter, Hobaugh, Williams and Amadi: [CLICK TO READ FULL ARTICLE]