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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief
We've taken a look at the preliminary card bouts headed to Broomfield, Colorado tomorrow night, so now it's time to break down the fights on the main card as the UFC comes to the Versus network. With two solid heavyweight bouts coming to the card along with a sure to be slugfest in the show's opener, not to mention the increasingly intriguing main event, there's a lot of excitement set to emanate from Colorado on Sunday night. Let's get to the fight!
James Irvin vs. Alessio Sakara (Middleweight)
Irvin made his UFC debut in 2005 and showed off the finishing ability that he's had throughout his career, scoring a flying knee KO of Terry Martin just seconds into the second round. He would lose his next two fights but then picked up five wins in his next seven, which included a "no contest" from a Strikeforce bout where he and Bobby Southworth were clinched and went right out the cage door 17 seconds into the first round. Of course, he's now been out of action for almost two years after suffering a brutal first round loss to Anderson Silva in July of 2008.
Sakara himself has had an up and down tenure in the UFC, never scoring consecutive Octagon wins until his most recent two fights. But those fights came almost a year apart from one another, and he himself has been out of action since last August when he defeated Thales Leites by decision.
This is a fight that is primed to end violently. The two fighters combined have 18 knockout or TKO victories to their credit, and with both not having fought very often recently they'll be trying to finish things quickly to avoid this fight dragging into the late rounds.
One thing that may be a factor, on top of the nearly two year layoff, for Irvin is the fact that he's dropping to middleweight for the first time. With what is sure to be a bit of ring rust to wear off in this fight, he'll also have to contend with the cutting of extra weight, and that could negatively affect his power. Still, Sakara isn't Anderson Silva, and I'm not seeing another quick loss for "The Sandman." I just like his hands more in this fight than I do Sakara's, so Irvin takes the nod in what should be a highly entertaining show opener.
PREDICTION: Irvin via TKO in the first round.
Cheick Kongo vs. Paul Buentello (Heavyweight)
Cheick Kongo had never lost consecutive fights in his career, but now he's reeling from two decisive losses to Cain Velasquez and Frank Mir. The Velasquez loss snapped a three fight win streak that had him in talks of getting closer to contention in the UFC's heavyweight division, but the Mir loss now has him on the edge of the division and in danger of being cut with a third straight loss.
Buentello hasn't been facing the same level of competition over the last few years that Kongo has. Before making his return to the UFC in December, Buentello had only lost three times since 2001, and two of those had come in Title bouts to Andrei Arlovski and Alistair Overeem. But while he's been successful over the years, he's never really been seen as a truly top tier heavyweight.
Both fighters need the win here on Sunday night, as Buentello's return was a sloppy mess of a decision that went to Stefan Struve and Kongo's on the two fight skid. But in this fight Kongo should be the clear favorite.
Kongo's not known for his ground game by any stretch of the imagination, but it is better than what Buentello will put up against him. He's shown in fights like the one against Mostapha Al Turk that he can utilize the takedowns and the ground and pound game for devastating effect, and if he's going to win this fight that's what he'll need to go to. Buentello can certainly hurt him on the feet, but I'd also take Kongo's striking as better overall than Buentello, so I see this fight as Kongo's to lose. I just don't think he will.
PREDICTION: Kongo via TKO in the second round.
Junior Dos Santos vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (Heavyweight)
Now this is a great heavyweight fight between a fighter quickly making his way up the division and another trying to get back to another shot at the top. Dos Santos has done nothing but devastate just about every opponent he's faced in the Octagon, going back to his spectacular debut over Fabricio Werdum. In defeating Mirko Cro Cop and violently finishing off Gilbert Yvel, Dos Santos is getting his name on the short list of contenders in the division.
Gonzaga is looking to reclaim his spot as one of the best the UFC's heavyweight division has to offer. After getting knocked out by Shane Carwin last March, Gonzaga rebounded to a win in highly controversial fashion over Chris Tuchscherer last August. After nailing him with one of the most devastating low blows in UFC history, Gonzaga finished him off after the doctor's for no good reason allowed Tuchscherer to continue.
Many have and will continue to argue that Gonzaga has a clear edge on the ground in this fight, but Dos Santos is a fighter that trains with the Nogueira brothers in jiu jitsu, and simply because he hasn't had to go to the ground in his fights does not mean he has no game there to speak of. This fight is highly interesting because both fighters certainly have the striking ability to knock the other one out, but then there's a big question mark on just how the fight will play out should it hit the ground.
I like Dos Santos in this fight, though. After seeing Shane Carwin take out Gonzaga and the way that Dos Santos has devastated some of his opponents in the Octagon this is very much a fight he should win. I think Gonzaga will be in trouble on his feet at times in this fight, and if he tries to bring it to the ground I think Dos Santos will be adept enough to deal with it and get back to his feet. This one goes to Dos Santos and he gets up to the next level in the heavyweight division.
Brandon Vera vs. Jon Jones (Light Heavyweight)
The fight that's been talked about increasingly as we get closer to it, this main event pits the past promise of Brandon Vera against the future potential of Jon Jones. Vera simply hasn't been the fighter he once was in recent years, and it goes back to his fight with Tim Sylvia in 2007 where he broke his hand and struggled through a boring decision loss. Since then he's gone 3-3, but he's been impressive only in one fight, against Mike Patt last March.
Jon Jones, on the other hand, has been nothing but exciting since bursting onto the MMA scene in 2008. Really it was last year that cemented him as one of the best up and coming fighters in the UFC, but considering he's only been training for two years it's remarkable what he's been able to accomplish already. His last fight out may count as a loss on his record, but the way he manhandled Matt Hamill until the DQ finish was a thing of beauty.
The fight really comes down to which Brandon Vera shows up. Will we see the Vera that rolled through Frank Mir? Or will it be the Vera that boringly skirted to decisions against Reese Andy, Keith Jardine, Krzysztof Soszynski and Randy Couture, going 2-2 in those fight?
If it's the latter, then the exciting and unorthodox style of Jon Jones may overwhelm Vera, who is a fighter not easily overwhelmed. If it's the former, Vera's got all the tools in his arsenal to put down the hungry young lion in this one.
I'm very excited to see which version of each of these guys shows up. If Jones himself has improved even further than in the Hamill fight, he's a scary guy to be messing with. Ultimately it comes down to Jon Jones continuing to improve every facet of his game while Vera hasn't shown us anything special in nearly two years. For that reason I like Jones in this fight, though it should be a war.
PREDICTION: Jones via TKO in the third round.
-As always, we'll bring live round by round coverage of all the fights as they air on Versus, so check back for that.
-Also, join us tomorrow afternoon from 2-4pm ET on BlogTalkRadio.com for our MMATorch Livecast, where Torch Columnist Matt Pelkey and I will run down this card as well as next weekend's UFC 111 event.
Jamie Penick, editor-in-chief
(mmatorcheditor@gmail.com)
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