Penick's Take
PENICK: Previews and Predictions for UFC on Versus: Vera vs. Jones preliminary card
Mar 18, 2010 - 8:20:54 PM PENICK: Previews and Predictions for UFC on Versus: Vera vs. Jones preliminary card

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

The UFC makes its debut on the Versus network this Sunday with a card headlined by Brandon Vera and Jon Jones. But before we get to the four fight televised card there are seven fights on the night's preliminary card that should provide the live crowd in Colorado with a ton of action. As fans everyone will be hoping for some short fights on the main card so a few of these get to make the broadcast, but let's get to the previews!

Duane Ludwig vs. Darren Elkins (Lightweight)

Elkins is making his UFC debut in this fight after beginning his career 9-1 mainly on local shows in Indiana. His sole loss came by TKO only :13 seconds into the fight, which is a bit of a bad omen considering the fighter he's facing.

Ludwig is a longtime journeyman in the sport, posting a career record of 19-10 since 2000, but while his ground game hasn't really evolved along with the rest of his contemporaries he still possesses the ability to do damage when the fight's on the feet. He unofficially holds the record for "fastest KO in UFC history" for his four second knockout of Jonathan Goulet, though the official time records show 11 seconds.

Elkins has some submissions to his name, but by all accounts it isn't an extremely adept ground game like those that have felled Ludwig in recent years. Ludwig comes in as a slight favorite in this fight, and if he can keep the fight on the feet he'll be at the advantage. While Ludwig has been submitted in multiple fights over the last three or four years, but all of those losses came at the hands of really high level lightweights and at this point Elkins is not in that category.

PREDICTION: Ludwig via TKO in the first round.

Eric Schafer vs. Jason Brilz (Light Heavyweight)

Eric "Red" Schafer had a four fight win streak snapped in his last fight, a unanimous decision loss to Ryan Bader last October in a fight in which he stayed quite competitive. Brilz lost in his last fight out as well, a split decision to fellow prelim card fighter on Sunday Eliot Marshall back in September.

Brilz is a longtime journeyman who has been a professional since 2000, finally getting his break in the UFC in 2008. He's primarily a wrestler and has used that skill set to take over fights from the top en route to 17 career wins. That said, he's going to have a very difficult time employing his normal strategy against a very adept jiu jitsu player in Schafer.

Schafer is not only a more skilled submission fighter, but he's got a better standup game as well. He comes into this fight as the underdog, but in looking at their styles I think it's going to be hard for Brilz to grind out the decision here, and he's not going to connect on enough to TKO Schafer. I like the slight underdog pick in this fight.

PREDICTION: Schafer via submission in the third.

Mike Pierce vs. Julio Paulino (Welterweight)

Mike Pierce certainly hasn't had the easy road in the UFC. He made his UFC debut against Brock Larson and shocked the highly regarded welterweight with a unanimous decision victory. For his troubles, he got to face one of the best welterweights in the world in Jon Fitch his next time out, though he lost a decision in that one.

Julio Paulino is another fighter making his UFC debut, and he enters the Octagon with a 17-2 record in fights taking place mostly in Anchorage, Alaska. He's on a seven fight win streak following his last defeat that came at the hands of current UFC fighter Rick "The Horror" Story in 2007.

Paulino is a finisher, with only three of his fights going to the judges scorecards. He'll need to avoid that against Pierce, as he's only won one of those three that went the full time limit. His other 16 wins have come by way of TKO or submission, but despite that stellar record his level of competition has not been very high, and in taking this fight on short notice as well he hasn't had as much time to prepare for what Pierce brings into this fight.

I like Pierce's ground and pound attack a lot in this fight, and any fighter that can hang with Jon Fitch and defeat Brock Larson certainly deserves a certain level of respect. Paulino is just overmatched in this fight, especially so on short notice, and it could be a long night for him.

PREDICTION: Pierce via TKO in the third.

Brendan Schaub vs. Chase Gormley (Heavyweight)

Former NFL player and TUF 10 runner up Brendan Schaub enters his first fight away from the reality show tournament in the UFC a considerable favorite against Chase Gormley, who failed to impress in a first round submission loss to Stefan Struve in his UFC debut.

Before getting knocked out by the underrated hands of Roy Nelson in the TUF 10 finale, Schaub posted four straight TKO or knockout victories. A training partner with Rashad Evans and in Greg Jackson's camp before entering the TUF house, Schaub continues to improve with a superior athletic ability anchoring his development.

Gormley posted six straight wins before his UFC debut, but he's not nearly as physically gifted as Schaub in his young career. He's also going into enemy territory, as he'll be in the back yard of where Schaub spends much of his time training. Schaub has also picked up three of his victories in the city of Broomfield.

I'm expecting to see a hungry and improved Schaub after tasting defeat for the first time, and he's the favorite in this one for a reason.

PREDICTION: Schaub via TKO in the second.

John Howard vs. Daniel Roberts (Welterweight)

Howard was supposed to face Anthony "Rumble" Johnson on this card in a fight that had a lot of bad blood involved, but instead he faces replacement Daniel Roberts, who is another fighter making his UFC debut.

Howard is riding a six fight win streak, three of which have come in the Octagon. Roberts enters his first UFC fight with an undefeated record at 9-0 with seven of those fights coming by way of submission. Six of those submissions came in the first round as well.

This is an intriguing matchup because Roberts hasn't faced a higher level of competition yet and while Howard has found some success in the Octagon, he's been very close to losing all three of the fights he's won. Still, with Roberts coming in on short notice I like Howard to physically overpower him in this one, and if the fight moves to the later rounds I like Howard to finish this one.

PREDICTION: Howard via TKO in the second.

Eliot Marshall vs. Vladimir Matyushenko (Light Heavyweight)

Another Broomfield veteran in Marshall comes back to his home state for this card here, and he's getting quite the step up in competition in former UFC Light Heavyweight Title contender Vladimir Matyushenko.

On paper this looks like a bit of a mismatch, and perhaps even an easy fight for Matyushenko, but Marshall has begun to come into his own since his time on the Ultimate Fighter and has improved his game quite a bit over his last couple of fights.

Matyushenko has only lost twice since his ill-fated fight with Tito Ortiz, where the pay-per-view feed cut out due to three Title fights going over the allotted time. Those two losses? To Andrei Arlovski and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. He made a successful return to the UFC last September with a unanimous decision over Igor Pokrajac.

Marshall's going to need to be 100% at the top of his game to win this fight, but if he can stick and move against an aging and slowed Matyushenko the upset is there for him in a decision. I don't know that he'll be able to do that, however, and I'll stick with the favorite.

PREDICTION: Matysuhenko via unanimous decision.

Clay Guida vs. Shannon Gugerty (Lightweight)

Guida enters this bout trying to snap a two fight losing skid. Granted, those two losses came to Diego Sanchez and Kenny Florian, but his limited standup game was exposed by the two much superior strikers. In the latter fight, he was thoroughly dominated before getting choked out in the second round by Florian.

Gugerty looked really good in a first round submission of Matt Grice at UFC 100, but that has been surrounded by submission losses to Spencer Fisher and Terry Etim. He's now at an even .500 in the Octagon, but he's running into an extremely hungry Guida in this fight.

Clay's relentless takedowns are going to be the key to this fight. If he can get back to his bread and butter and get Gugerty on his back instead of trying to stand and trade with him he'll have the advantage.

Gugerty can win this fight if Guida decides to play the "I can strike right along with you" game, but I just don't see that being the case after the way the last two fights went down for him.

PREDICTION: Guida via unanimous decision.