Ennis' Take
ENNIS: Lay of the Land - The Lightweight Division January 2011 (Part Two)
Jan 20, 2011 - 6:35:36 PM ENNIS: Lay of the Land - The Lightweight Division January 2011 (Part Two)

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By: Shawn Ennis, MMATorch Senior Columnist

This is the second of a two-part breakdown of the UFC's lightweight division. Last week's entry concentrated on the top of the division along with the up and comers. This week we'll take a look at everyone else, and a few fighters outside the UFC who could find a home within the friendly confines of the Octagon.

THE POOL

I'm going to start off the pool with a fighter who was originally in the Step or Two Away category before I had to move him out due to overcrowding and a lack of quality wins. That's Jim Miller (19-2). Now before Jim Miller's defenders rise up in the comments, just hear me out for a second here. Miller is a dangerous guy, no doubt. He's won six in a row and looked great doing so. But whom has he beaten that would put him near the top of the division? His biggest win in my eyes came over a hot prospect in Charles Oliveira. That's really only half the problem, though. The other half is his future matchmaking. While another fast-rising contender, Dennis Siver, has no big wins to his name, he's fighting George Sotiropoulos in his next fight. Who does Miller have coming up? Not Gomi, not Evan Dunham, not Sean Sherk, not anyone that would vault him into contendership. He's fighting Kamal Shalorus (7-0-2). No disrespect to Shalorus here either, but what exactly does a win do for Miller here? It pretty much keeps his streak alive. But a loss would be a pretty big blow to any title aspirations in the next year. That's what keeps him out of the Step or Two Away category for the moment. That having been said, he's right back in the picture with a win over Shalorus and an upcoming fight against a big name. We'll see how high the UFC is on him after his next fight. Moving on, we've got one of Miller's victims, Mark Bocek (9-3). Bocek seems like he may finally be hitting his stride with his win over the suddenly ice-cold former UFC welterweight/lightweight Dustin Hazelett (12-7). The Canadian made submitting Hazelett look easy, and Hazelett is a guy who has come up with some pretty slick submissions in his own right. Bocek fights another tough grappler in former WEC lightweight champion Ben Henderson (12-2) at UFC 129. It'll be an interesting few months here as the WEC transplants integrate themselves into the UFC and we finally get to see them test themselves against some known quantities. The Henderson-Bocek fight should give us a good idea of where both guys stand right now, and it's a really intriguing matchup. They say Henderson can't be choked out, but Bocek will almost certainly give it a try anyway. Donald Cerrone (13-3) is another WEC transplant that will look to make a name for himself on the big stage starting at UFC 126 when he takes on the always-tough Paul Kelly (11-3) at UFC 126. Henderson is trying to avoid his first ever back-to-back losses, while Kelly could be facing dire consequences with a loss to Henderson since going 2-2 in his last four. With the lightweight division absorbing a lot of talent due to the WEC merger, it's now the most swollen of any UFC division, and as such it could get nasty here with cuts over the next few months. I wouldn't be surprised to see some pretty established names (hello Marcus Davis (17-8)) get shown the door with just one loss. And if it's two in a row for a guy who hasn't established himself, that's almost certainly worth a pink slip.

In another fight that could result in the loser being cut, Yves Edwards (39-16-1) will take on Cody McKenzie (12-0) and his mythical "McKenzietine" this Saturday night. McKenzie has the novelty of having won 10 straight fights by first round guillotine, which could work in his favor to a certain extent. At the same time, if Edwards loses to a guy like McKenzie, why would the UFC keep him around? In another fight this Saturday, Cole Miller (17-4) will square off with his friend Matt Wiman. Wiman has won two straight but hasn't fought since June, while Miller is coming off of a September win over TUF 9 winner Ross Pearson (11-4), which was Pearson's first UFC loss. A fight between Miller and Donald Cerrone is almost a sure thing after this fight and Cerrone-Kelly, as the trash talking has already commenced between two of the division's more verbose inhabitants. For his part, Pearson has a UFC 127 bout scheduled with Octagon mainstay Spencer Fisher (24-6). This should mean a trip back to the main card (or televised prelims) for Fisher, who quietly earned a decision win over UFC newcomer Curt Warburton (6-2) in an unaired UFC 120 prelim. Warburton, another Brit, will also make his return in Australia at UFC 127. He may be in for a long (or short) night against WEC veteran Maciej Jewtuszko (8-0). Jewtuszko was last seen in August crushing Anthony Njokuani (13-4) at WEC 50 in under two minutes. Jewtuszko frightens me. Njokuani will face the aforementioned Edson Barboza at UFC 128, which you simply will not want to miss if you are a fan of quality violence. These two are sure to deliver the thunder, and though it may not be scheduled for the main broadcast of that particular card, I'd be surprised if it doesn't end up being shown.

Continuing with hard to spell names, we'll move on to Chinese native Tiequan Zhang (12-1), who faces Jason Reinhardt (20-1) at UFC 127. This should show what Zhang is made of after he was thoroughly dominated by as-yet unheralded prospect Danny Downes (7-1) at WEC 53. At the same time he'll be taking on a fighter in Reinhardt who has been on the shelf for three entire years, so it may not be overly telling one way or the other.

We've exhausted all of our UFC 127 lightweight fights, but there's still one to be discussed that's coming up this weekend. Waylon Lowe (9-3) has the task of welcoming the debuting Willamy Freire (18-3) to the UFC. Should he be unsuccessful in this outing, I don't think Lowe is long for the Octagon, at least in this go round. And of course we've already mentioned Evan Dunham in a previous section, but we haven't yet talked about his opponent on Saturday, Melvin Guillard (26-8-2). Guillard purports to have become a better, more patient fighter under the tutelage of Greg Jackson, and if that's the case he'll need to showcase that improvement against Dunham. As of yet Dunham has shown no areas of real weakness, and while Guillard was able to eke out a victory against the always-tough Jeremy Stephens (19-6) in his last outing, he hasn't been tested for a while in the way that Dunham will test him. Should be a very intriguing fight. And let's not forget Stephens while we're at it. Stephens just ended the UFC career of Marcus Davis with one punch at UFC 125. He doesn't have an upcoming fight scheduled, but a good fight might be between Stephens and a slumping Tyson Griffin (14-5), who last dropped a robbery of a split decision to Nik Lentz (20-3-2), who is currently 4-0-1 in the UFC but has yet to really catch on with fans or anyone else for that matter. Another fighter derailed by Lentz is Andre Winner (11-5-1), who dropped a decision to "The Carny" back in August before losing his second straight to Dennis Siver. Winner doesn't have a fight scheduled at the moment, but the once-promising TUF alum is certainly on shaky ground as it stands right now.

Staying on the TUF front, we've got the finalists of the most recent season, starting with the winner, Jonathan Brookins (12-3), who was originally rumored to have a fight lined up with Jon Makdessi in his second UFC appearance before the opponent was confirmed as his TUF castmate Kyle Watson (13-6-1). As of yet there is nothing scheduled for Brookins or his co-finalist, Michael Johnson (8-5), and though it's no easy feat to win the TUF tournament, we really won't know too much about either man until they step in there with a known quantity. I would imagine with the number of lightweights currently under contract, neither fighter will have an easy road to stay in the Octagon. I wouldn't be surprised to see Johnson thrown in there immediately with someone like Rafael dos Anjos (14-5), who was coming off of three straight wins before a jaw injury shortened his night against Clay Guida; or maybe veteran Aaron Riley (30-12-1), who would be sure to put on a fun fight. Brookins, on the other hand, could get a relatively new face in the UFC, and perhaps someone coming off of a debut loss. Someone like Mike Lullo (8-2), who was leg kicked to death by Edson Barboza in his debut, or T.J. O'Brien (16-5), who was elbowed to smithereens by Paul Kelly in his debut. The advantage and disadvantage to these kinds of matchups is that whether or not Brookins wins or loses, we still don't know much about him or the guy he just fought. But a win is a win, and that's probably what the UFC wants in order to lend the TUF tournament any legitimacy.

Alright, we're heading into the home stretch here. Let's talk about some more guys with upcoming fights. Coming up at UFC 128, we've got Kurt Pellegrino (16-5) taking on Gleison Tibau (21-7). These are two guys who are in a similar position. They're both coming off of losses to guys on their way up (Sotiropoulos for Pellegrino, Jim Miller for Tibau,) both of them are serviceable vets that have been UFC mainstays for about five years, and neither of them can seem to take the big step up when they have the opportunity. Should be an interesting fight as I think they match up pretty evenly, but I'd give Pellegrino a slight edge. Also coming up on the next Versus card, we've got WEC import Shane Roller (9-3) meeting Thiago Tavares (15-3-1). Roller went 6-2 in WEC, losing only to Ben Henderson and Anthony Pettis. Most recently he gave Jamie Varner his exit from Zuffa with a rear naked choke win in the final WEC event. Tavares, for his part, seems to be another guy with potential who comes up small when it matters. This could very well be a "loser leaves town" type of fight – both guys are serviceable enough, but with the size of the lightweight roster, the UFC has an abundance of serviceable fighters. In another probable win-or-go-home type of fight, we've got the infamous Gabe Ruediger (17-6) taking on the perennially exciting Paul Taylor (10-6-1) at UFC 126. For Ruediger, this is another shot at redemption. After being memorably cast out of The Ultimate Fighter house, Ruediger went on a six-fight win streak, winning all six by stoppage. He was unceremoniously welcomed back into the Octagon, however, by Joe Lauzon (19-6), who absolutely ran through him in two minutes, finishing things off with an armbar. That was Lauzon at his best in front of a raucous hometown crowd, and Ruediger did not look like he was expecting anything close to what he got. Taylor is 1-3 in his last four fights, and given Ruediger's shaky history with Dana White I have a hard time seeing the loser invited back for another fight any time soon.

Last up we've got the guys who fought recently and/or don't have anything scheduled on the immediate horizon. Most notably we have Kenny Florian (13-5), who last posted a loss to Gray Maynard in August of last year. He was scheduled to main even the Fight for the Troops card against Evan Dunham this weekend, but injury sidelined him. When he returns I wouldn't be surprised to see him get a shot at the winner of Saturday's main event, or perhaps one of the fighters waiting in line for a title shot. Depending on the timeline we could see fights with Jim Miller, the winner of Sotiropoulos/Siver, or the winner of Dunham/Guillard. I think those are all good fights for Florian. In that same boat is Sean Sherk (36-4-1), who was handed a decision win over Dunham in his last fight. Sherk could conceivably fight any of the guys I just mentioned for Florian. We also talked about Joe Lauzon, and he's coming off of a loss to Sotiropoulos. A good fight for him could be Takanori Gomi (32-7). I don't think Gomi is going to get any easy fights for however long he sticks in the UFC, and given his somewhat suspect submission defense, Lauzon is a tough matchup for him. Another fight I wouldn't mind seeing would be Joe Stevenson (31-12), who is in the midst of a 2-5 run and coming off of an embarrassing KO loss to Mac Danzig (20-8-1), fighting an up and coming guy like healthcare enthusiast Jacob Volkmann (12-2). I think that would be a pretty good barometer for both guys to see where they are right now. Stevenson needs a win badly, and Volkmann could use a stiff test after starting his lightweight career at 3-0. Finally, there are three guys who could be matched up pretty much any way Joe Silva sees fit. There's Sam Stout (16-6-1), and he could fight Paul Sass (11-0), who is the Cody McKenzie of triangle chokes (he won his first eight fights by triangle, and brought the triangle with him to the UFC, where he used it to choke out Mark Holst in his debut at UFC 120.) Another guy they could match him up with, and probably more likely, is fellow Brit Terry Etim (14-3), who was riding a nice four-fight win streak into his fight with Rafael dos Anjos, where he was submitted.

Well, I don't know about you guys, but I'm exhausted. That is a big division. But shockingly enough, we've still got a little more to talk about. There are these two guys in particular that stand head and shoulders above most non-UFC lightweights, and they could probably both be given title shots pretty quickly should they get the opportunity to fight within the confines of a Zuffa contract. Gilbert Melendez (18-2), the current Strikeforce lightweight champion, has no unavenged losses and has been on the hardcore fans' radar for years. My personal favorite for best non-UFC lightweight, however, is Eddie Alvarez (21-2), who has looked absolutely dominant in his run as Bellator lightweight champion. Most recently, Alvarez thrashed former UFC golden boy Roger Huerta (21-5-1), causing the doctor to stop the fight after the second round. Believe it or not, though, there is still a wealth of non-UFC talent out there in this unbelievably stacked division. I'll just name the ones I can think of.

There's fast-rising star Maximo Blanco (8-2-1), who has looked fantastic in his Sengoku Raiden Championship run, of course there's submission ace Shinya Aoki (26-5), who remains a commodity despite his somewhat hilarious (though humiliating for him) TKO loss at Dream's annual Dynamite!! show. Aoki fought Yuichihiro Nagashima in a fight that featured one round of kickboxing rules followed by a round of MMA rules. In the first round, Aoki looked silly in running away from Nagashima (though you can hardly blame Aoki, whose kickboxing leaves something to be desired) only to be knocked cold by a knee while shooting for his first takedown in the second round. So that didn't end well for him. Those listed above are probably my picks for the first fighters I'd like to see against the top UFC competitors, but there are several more who could make some noise within the division. I'm not going to take the time to list them all here, because quite frankly I don't want to take up all the space and I'm nearing 2,700 words as it is. So I'm going to leave it there for now. If you think I've slighted anyone or left anyone out (as I said there are more deserving fighters who could go in this section), let's talk about it in the comments. Or shoot me an email at ennistorch@gmail.com.


Until next time, enjoy the fights.

History of the UFC Lightweight Title

*Bold indicates title changing hands

2/23/01 – J. Pulver def C. Uno (Decision)

9/28/01 – J. Pulver def D. Hallman (Decision)

1/11/02 – J. Pulver def B. Penn (Decision)

*Pulver stripped due to contract dispute*

2/28/03 – B. Penn draw C. Uno

*Lightweight division dissolved*

10/14/06 – S. Sherk def K. Florian (Decision)

7/7/07 – S. Sherk def H. Franca (Decision)

*Sherk stripped due to positive steroids test*

1/19/08 – B. Penn def J. Stevenson (Submission)

5/24/08 – B. Penn def S. Sherk (TKO)

8/8/09 – B. Penn def K. Florian (Submission)

12/12/09 – B. Penn def D. Sanchez (TKO)

4/10/10 – F. Edgar def B. Penn (Decision)

8/28/10 – F. Edgar def B. Penn (Decision)

1/1/11 – F. Edgar draw G. Maynard

Longest Title Reign: BJ Penn – 812 days

Most Title Defenses: BJ Penn (3)

Current Title Reign: Frank Edgar (285 days, 2 defenses)