Ennis' Take
ENNIS: Lay of the Land - The Lightweight Division January 2011 (Part One)
Jan 13, 2011 - 11:28:14 AM ENNIS: Lay of the Land - The Lightweight Division January 2011 (Part One)

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By: Shawn Ennis, MMATorch Senior Columnist

This will be the first of two parts breaking down the UFC's lightweight division. This week will focus on the top of the division, while next week looks at the rest of the lightweights and what those outside the UFC have to offer.

There has been a rash of new champions among the ranks of the UFC in the past 12 months. Only three of the UFC's seven weight divisions have not crowned a new champion in the past year (Featherweight, Welterweight, Middleweight.) And after almost every title change, the champion is heralded either by a commentator or by the MMA public at large as the unbeatable ruler of his era. "Who can beat [insert name]?!" is what we hear time and again. Well, as it turns out, there's someone who can beat pretty much everyone. So how long will it be before two-time defending champion Frankie Edgar finds that someone? Let's take a look at the champ and the division over which he currently reigns. Should you doubt the depth of this division or whether there are enough contenders to keep a champion busy, read on.

THE CHAMP

Frankie Edgar (13-1-1): Despite taking out lightweight demigod B.J. Penn not once, but twice, Edgar seems to be perceived as perhaps the UFC's most vulnerable champion. His size is likely the most obvious culprit for this perception, with many saying before the Penn fights that Edgar would be well-suited to cut to featherweight and pursue glory against fighters more his size. As we know by now, however, Edgar is doing just fine for himself at 155 pounds. Up next for the champ is another defense against still-number-one-contender Gray Maynard, who memorably gave Edgar all he could handle in their epic fight on January 1st that saw Edgar get torched in the first round, only to come back and take three of the next four from the much-bigger Maynard. If the second fight is anywhere near as good as the first, we're all in for a treat.

THE CONTENDER

Gray Maynard (10-0-1): After beating Edgar soundly in their first encounter, many pegged "The Bully" as a shoo-in against the underdog champion. Those people looked to be prophetic throughout the first round, as Maynard almost finished the New Jersey native on more than one occasion. But we all know what happened next, and we won't soon forget it. It will be interesting to see how Maynard approaches the next fight. Will he look to control Edgar as he did in their first fight? Will Edgar be able to out-wrestle a version of Maynard that didn't punch himself out in the first round? How much did that first round actually hurt Maynard? If there has ever been a toss-up fight to complete a trilogy, this is it.

A STEP OR TWO AWAY

Anthony Pettis (13-1): The much-maligned title shot that Pettis earned with his WEC title win over Ben Henderson in December has been postponed, but Pettis remains close to his chance at either Edgar or Maynard. Pettis will not sit on the sideline and wait for that shot. The latest on the situation is a rumored bout with surprise-almost-contender Clay Guida at UFC 130 or 131. This will be a tough test for Pettis and will show a great deal about both fighters. Since suffering his only loss via decision to Bart Palaszewski in December 2009, Pettis has looked more impressive with each outing, going 4-0 in 2010 and culminating with his dazzling performance against Henderson that brought him out of obscurity and scored him highlights on every sports website known to man. Should he be able to continue his run against the ever-popular Guida this spring, Pettis could bring quite a following with him to the title fight.

Clay Guida (28-11): Guida is a unique character. He's obviously certifiably insane, as you can see any time he's not fighting and just watching from his cageside seat. Guida is always moving, always hopping and dancing around, singing along to whatever entrance music is playing, and generally possessing the energy of a human Monster drink. That relentless energy is at the root of his popularity. Guida fights at a relentless pace, and while he may not always win, he never slows down. And when he loses, his losses are epic. Think about it – how many Clay Guida wins do you remember? You might have hazy memories of the Nate Diaz fight, or Shannon Gugerty perhaps, or maybe Mac Danzig. But do you remember his fights with Tyson Griffin, Roger Huerta, Diego Sanchez or Kenny Florian? I know I do. And those all have one thing in common – Guida lost every one of them. Guida is on a hot streak right now, putting together three wins for the first time since 2005, and the UFC is wise to strike while the iron is hot. Should he be able to beat Pettis in their upcoming fight, Guida will enter a title fight with a lot of momentum and a ton of fan support. This contender bout is a win-win for the UFC and MMA fans.

George Sotiropoulos (14-2): Sotiropoulos was 4-0 in the UFC with three submission wins before his fight with Joe Stevenson at UFC 110, but there wasn't a lot of hype surrounding the native Australian. Fifteen minutes later, that would all change. In front of a rabid hometown crowd, Sotiropoulos thoroughly dismantled the former title contender, outgrappling and outworking Stevenson on his way to an easy decision win. That's when people started to take notice. Sotiropoulos has won two more since then, most recently submitting Joe Lauzon with a kimura. Sotiropoulos may not be next in line for a shot, but with a win over Dennis Siver at UFC 127 and another win after that, I wouldn't put a title shot out of the realm of possibility.

Dennis Siver (17-7): Siver's story differs quite a bit from that of his UFC 127 opponent. Originally brought in to fill out a couple of the UFC's first European cards, Siver went 1-3 in his first UFC stint, which ended with him getting thoroughly destroyed by Melvin Guillard in under a minute. Two years and some change later, Siver finds himself on a 5-1 run with two highlight-reel spinning back kick victories to his credit. His most recent win, a submission over Andre Winner, has garnered him the attention afforded Sotiropoulos, and the two find themselves in a very similar situation, with each standing in the other's way on the relatively short path to a title shot. Should Siver find a way to topple Sotiropoulos, it could very well afford him the momentum to get a contender fight.

Evan Dunham (11-1): I debated on whether to include Dunham in this category, as he's probably not looking at a title shot any time soon. But with the way he's looked recently, and if he can get past Melvin Guillard at Fight Night 23, I certainly wouldn't be shocked to see him get the winner of Siver-Sotiropoulos as a number-one contender fight. His robbery loss to Sean Sherk notwithstanding, the UFC knows what they have in Dunham. He's electric, he's exciting, and above all, he's very, very good.

UP AND COMERS

John Makdessi (8-0): "The Bull" made his promotional debut at UFC 124 against Pat Audinwood. Anyone who saw the fight through UFC on Demand won't soon forget it. Makdessi dominated the fight with crazy striking that had Audinwood on edge and, at times, reeling. I saw things I've never seen in an MMA fight. Axe kicks that actually landed, hook kicks, a jumping spinning back kick. I'd love to see the Fightmetric report for that fight. I didn't keep track, but I don't remember Audinwood landing anything at all. I don't know how Makdessi's style will translate in the long term into a successful run in the UFC, but I'm certainly excited to watch him again. The question on him will be his ground skills, and that question will at least be answered in part when he faces Kyle Watson at UFC 129.

Charles Oliveira (14-1): His recent loss to Jim Miller notwithstanding, Charles Oliveira is one of the UFC's most exciting prospects. Oliveira is always on the move and always attacking. His ground game is dynamic and dangerous (even though he got careless against Miller) and his striking can put opponents on their heels before they know what's going on. There's no fight announced for "Do Bronx," but there's hardly a bad matchup to be had for him in the division.

Edson Barboza (7-0): This guy is just scary. He's got frightening speed and power, especially in his kicks, which he showcased in his UFC debut, ending his bout with Mike Lullo in the third round with leg kicks. That's the second straight time he's won by TKO via leg kicks. And don't discount his jiu jitsu either. He may not use it all that often, and if he can stay on the feet he won't need to. But it's easy to see that Barboza is comfortable on the mat. He hasn't spent much time there, but in one of his few mat sequences, he slapped an anaconda choke on Lee King like it was nothing, went for the gator roll, and got the tap. If you want to see a display of striking that probably won't go the distance, look no further than Barboza's upcoming fight with Anthony Njokuani at UFC 128.

I'll be back next week with a rundown of the rest of the division. Until then, enjoy the fights.

Definitions/Parameters:

The Champ: Self-explanatory

The Contenders: Fighters who could fight for the title immediately and be taken as legitimate contenders. Fighters coming off of a loss will not typically be in this category.

A Step or Two Away: Fighters who could be in contention for a title with another victory or two over legitimate competition.

Up and Comers: Fighters who have no more than three fights in the UFC, who have shown promise. They're not always undefeated, but they have potential.
On the Rebound: Coming off of a high-profile loss or a loss in a fight that they should have won, and it will take a while to get the momentum back. Typically a champion who just lost his belt, as there's really nowhere else to put them.

The Pool: Other fighters of note within the division, who could work their way into the top three categories by going on a run and/or proving themselves/proving themselves again in the Octagon. Also those outside the UFC who could make an impact.