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By Wesley Walker, MMATorch Specialist
Main Event: Randy Couture -400 vs. Mark Coleman +300
Prediction: Randy Couture dominates decision victory.
Betting Advice: No money in predicting Randy to win, therefore gamble with Coleman or take a gamble on the under 2 and half rounds.
Co-Main Event: Nate Marquardt -500 vs. Chael Sonnen +350
Prediction: The difference in this fight in my mind will be Nate’s size and strength to sprawl on Chael Sonnen’s shots. I am giving Chael more respect than Las Vegas to win the fight. Sonnen has a great chance if he can get the fight to the ground with his slight edge in wrestling. Marquardt to win by decision.
Betting Advice: No money in predicting Nate straight to win, therefore gamble with Sonnen. I believe Sonnen has a great shot to win, especially with all the pressure on Marquardt to win.
Undercard Fight: Demian Maia -400 vs. Dan Miller +300
Prediction: In this fight the two ground specialists might stand and bang or a grappling match could break out on the ground. I believe the latter will happen and Maia will be able to get Dan Miller to the ground, but I see Dan being able to survive submission attempts by Maia with his fine ground game. Demain Maia should be able to control the fight to gain a decision victory.
Betting Advice: Take and put a couple dollars on Dan Miller to win with a big payoff due to the high odds against him. I believe Vegas has set a lot of the lines to high on many fight especially in this fight Miller has a grind style that gives him a great chance to win in my mind. Demain Maia to gain a decision victory.
Undercard Fight: Matt Serra -145 vs. Frank Trigg +115
Prediction: Matt Serra is a strong powerful striker as he showed in the Matt Hughes fight knocking him down whenever they stood in the fight. Frank Trigg struggles with powerful strikers who load up in their punches. For example the Josh Koscheck fight where he folded under the pressure of Koschecks’ punches.
Betting Advice: Take Serra I believe Matt is more of a favorite than Vegas is giving him credit for. In my mind Trigg is in a bad style match up lacking the same striking skills as Hughes, but not having the superior wrestling to get Serra to the ground. Trigg will give up his back again late in the 1st round.
Undercard Fight: Mike Swick -220 vs. Paulo Thiago + 175
Prediction: The biggest edge for Swick in this fight is that he has had two teammates already fight Paulo Thiago. He can exploit the areas where Thiago struggled in the fights with Koscheck and Fitch.
Betting Advice: Take Swick he’s not an overwhelming favorite plus I believe he will run threw Thiago with superior striking like Koscheck, but being more careful when he attacks.
Swick by TKO 2nd round
Undercard Fight: Mac Danzig -400 vs. Justin Buchholz +300
Prediction: Mac Danzig won the Ultimate Fighter and looked on the fast track to the title but has fallen on hard times with losses to Josh Neer and Clay Guida. The biggest factor in this fight is Danzig’s superior ground game.
Danzig by submission late in 2nd round
Betting Advice: Buchholz is a huge underdog and I believe he has an adequate shot to win this fight take a gamble if he can keep the fight standing he should be able to stay close in the fight
Undercard Fight: Ronys Torres +105 vs. Melvin Guillard -135
Prediction: The most underrated fight on this card is Torres vs. Guillard. These two fighters are mirror images of each other. Melvin has a slight edge in wrestling, but Torres is very strong and fiery.
Betting Advice: Take Torres and the upset he is very well rounded and should be able to bait Guillard into his fight. He should get Guillard to the ground by power and strength.
Torres by decision in an upset
Undercard Fight: Rob Emerson -135 Vs Philipe Nover +105
Prediction: Nover looked great on the ultimate fighter show, but has not been successful in the big shows. Emerson though is very overrated in my mind and has stayed in the UFC with a lucky KO of Manny.
Betting Advice: Bet Nover he is more well-rounded than Emerson and should take the fight where he wants.
Nover by decision in a slight upset
Undercard Fight: Brian Stann +210 vs. Phil Davis -280
Prediction: Phil Davis is going to be a star in the future of the light heavyweight division. He is a former all American wrestler and an extremely powerful guy.
Betting Advice: I love Davis in this fight as long as he doesn’t slug with Stann
Davis dominates to a decision win
Undercard Fight: Chris Tuchscherer -200 vs. Tim Hague + 160
Prediction: Tuchscherer is a training partner with Sean Sherk and Brock Lesnar look for him to control the fight on the ground while hammer fisting Hague in the face.
Betting Advice: Take Chris here he got robbed in the Gonzaga fight with the low blow he should be able to get Hague down and ground and pound
Chris Tuchscherer inks out a decision
Undercard Fight: Rolles Gracie -550 vs. Joey Beltran +375
Prediction: Gracie has superior grappling advantage look for quick rear naked choke on Beltran who is a late replacement for Al-Turk.
Gracie rear naked choke quickly in the 1st round
Betting Advice: If you wanted to place a bet in this fight bet on Beltran don’t see it happening unless he can push the pace because Gracie has never gone past the 1st round
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Wesley Walker is MMATorch's new Predictions Specialist, analyzing the betting odds of big fight cards and offering predictions and strategies.
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