Opinion & Analysis
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The Specialists
STYLES CLASH: UFC 104's Lyoto Machida vs. Mauricio Rua - How their styles differ and who is likely to prevail
Oct 22, 2009 - 5:21:00 PM
UFC light-heavyweight champion, Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida, is regarded as one of the most unique fighters to have entered the cage in several years. He holds a pro record of 15 wins without a loss and hasn't lost a single round in his entire career. Son of a Shotokan Karate Master, Machida developed a very original style combining his extensive Karate background with knees, kicks and elbows of Muy Thai and Brazilian Jiu Jitsu in a style he calls "Machida Karate."
Mauricio "Shogun" Rua, former Pride Middleweight Grand Prix Tournament Winner, is now among the best in the light-heavyweight UFC division. Coming off an amazing KO victory over Chuck Liddell and a last second KO over "Hammer" Coleman, he boasts a record of 18 wins 3 losses with 15 knockouts. He is a former Chute Boxe fighter, for those of you that don't know what that means, it means your aggression is equal to your skill in the cage. They are the original academy for training Vale Tudo, which means "anything goes," and are known to be very aggressive and establish the pace rather than wait and counter
THEIR STYLES
Joe Rogan would describe Machida as "elusive" because of his unorthodox stance, it looks like a typical Karate Front Stance but he leans his weight on his rear leg. This technique allows Machida extra to gain distance, forcing his opponents to extend as they attack thus leaving themselves open upon missing for an infamous Machida counter-strike. From this stance, Machida is also capable of throwing kicks with virtually no projection, these phantom-like kicks have incredible power and pose a heavy threat in frustrating his opponent while keeping them at bay which allows him to foresee an attack and prepare his counter. Let's not overlook the fact that he is a black belt in Jiu Jitsu, and has a strong take down defense.
Shogun Rua is among the most powerful in his weight class and has proven so throughout his MMA career. He is usually the aggressor and likes to use his big leg kicks to set up his strikes and open up his opponents for his powerful right hooks. His ground skills are not to be overlooked, he is also a black belt in Jiu Jitsu, which he hasn't had to show much of because his opponents usually hit the ground asleep rather than by takedown. He has significant submission losses against Babalu Sobral, Kevin Randleman, and Mark Coleman (which he snapped his arm in 2006 during a Pride Event in their first meeting).
THE FIGHT
Although Shogun is normally an aggressor, don't expect him to come out flying in this fight because it is going to take time to figure Machida out (if he can at all). He will lead with cautious jabs and try to keep Machida at bay with some kicks while waiting for a takedown opportunity where Shogun is superior in this match up. I feel the ground be his goal in this fight because Machida showed a little weakness on the ground when he was almost choked out by a triangle from Tito Ortiz in UFC 84... If he can get Machida to his back, Shogun has to use his strength to keep Machida's back to the cage where his movement is limited and it's easier to inflict damage. Even if Shogun ends up on his back, he has the strength advantage for a submission from there is very well at transitioning back to the top.
This strategy is going to be just as hard as fighting Machida standing up because of his takedown defense. Machida obviously knows of Shogun's KO power but, as stated, he is very elusive and extremely patient on his feet. And until someone figures out how to move around his unorthodox stance, he is nearing impossible to take down. Machida is extremely smart and confident in his style and will stick to his usual tactic of a slow and very relaxed pace, he will try to pick Shogun apart with his quick kicks and await the frustration in Shogun which ultimately would lead to a devastating counter-strike. Shogun's experience will keep his frustration to a minimum so expect a slow and strategic fight and unless he can get Machida to the mat I don't think Shogun will be able to figure out how to get around the unfamiliar style of Machida and will ultimately end up awaiting a rematch like the 15 others.
PREDICTION: Machida is too confusing and frustrating, Shogun tires in the 4th and is KO'd. (Some of my teammates will disagree with my opinion, but how do you bet against a guy crazy enough to drink his own urine)!
[Lyoto Machida art credit Cory Gould (c) MMATorch]
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Shogun takes down everyone he faces, and tooled Ricardo Arona on the
ground, who rarely even gives up points in grappling tournaments.
The "invincibility" of Machida is starting to get out of hand, just because
people don't know anything about Karate, so they think it's magical.
Once he loses, you won't be able to explain it any better than why he's
won.
Jared
22 Oct 2009, 22:02
"He has significant submission wins over Babalu Sobral, Kevin Randleman and
Mark Coleman (which he snapped his arm in 2006 during a Pride Event in
their 1st meeting)"?????
The only submission victory Shogun has is over Randleman. Shogun was
submitted by Babalu and it was Shogun's arm that was snapped in the
Colemena fight.
MIchael
23 Oct 2009, 09:00
I actually agree with the article.. Griffen choking out rua is no fluke..
the guy clearly isnt invinsible either. ur right on the about the shogun
losses by submission.. Maybe the writer misprinted but that makes the 1st
comment on this page ridiculous cuz in this case, Shogun is the one getting
tooled on the ground
John
23 Oct 2009, 16:56
That was one of his first fights against Babalu, and the only time he was
finished. If he was bad on the ground, he would have lose to Ricardo Arona.
But he dominated him on the ground.
Griffin fought Shogun when Shogun had a blown out knee. That's not an
excuse, it really happened. This isn't "Nog had a staph infection before
the fight, so he wasn't 100%." It's "this guy's leg was blown out, and he
had surgery twice, and took a year and half off because of it."
The only reason people favor Machida is because he's undefeated, and people
don't know about Karate, so they think Machida's doing magic. If Shogun
beats him, people are just gonna dismiss Lyoto, even though Shogun smashed
Randleman, Liddell, Rampage, Arona, Alistair Overeem, and Lil' Nog. This is
not a weak fighter by any means.
I agree with John above but also feel as tho Shogun hes past his prime and
Machida is in his. There is nothing special about Karate, but there is
something special about what he does with it. This article does a good job
of describing the fighters and giving his own opinion. I agree with some
points and disagree with some as well. But its cool to see others opinions
aside from mine and my pals. I think Machida will take this one
John
23 Oct 2009, 23:40
Shogun is 27 years old for crying out loud. One loss to Forrest Griffin,
and he's out of his prime? Just shows how fickle MMA fans are. If Shogun
beats Machida, talks of this will end, and he'll be back ranked number one
in the world, and suddenly, he'll be unbeatable.
Jared
24 Oct 2009, 01:41
I don't think it's a question of Shogun being past his prime as much as
it's a question of whether or not he's 100%. He obviously wasn't against
Coleman, and while he looked good against Chuck, the fight only lasted the
first round. He looked good for the round, but can he maintain that for 5
rounds?
Machida's favored because he's very good and because Shogun hasn't proven
he's back yet. I definitely think we've yet to see the best version of
Shogun inside the Octagon, but will that come tomorrow night or will it
still take a couple more fights? A Shogun at 100% would have a shot at
beating Machida, and at the very least give him all he can handle.
Personally, I would still favor Machida over an 100% Shogun. The list of
fighters Shogun's beaten is impressive, but I don't think any of those
fighters would be favored over Machida.
