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Who wins the Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway main event at UFC Fight Night 74, and how?
MICHAEL BANE, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR
This is a fantastic fight in the featherweight division, and while it may not seem main event worthy in name value, there's a chance the fight itself may deliver main event performance value. There's always a danger in putting two up-and-comers together in a fight. You could potentially derail the hype and title track for one of them, and burn them as a contender altogether. The fighters in this scenario are are so young that a loss here shouldn't cause any harm they can't recover from.
Despite only being 25 years old, Charles Oliveria already has 25 professional fights under his belt. His first fight in the UFC occurred at only 20 years old, and he scored two straight submission wins right off the bat to extend his record to 14-0. If you've ever watched one of his fights, you've seen how special his submission game is. When was the last time you saw a calf slicer attempted in the UFC, let alone successful? And that might not even be his best submission when you take into consideration the modified anaconda choke he took Hatsu Hioki out with.
Oliveria has hardly rested on his laurels, and if you've watched his last two fights you've seen a vastly improved striking game. It's always encouraging to see fighters expand their repertoire of skills, and Oliveria has graduated from becoming passable in the striking department to almost dangerous. His continued evolution is a good sign that he has what it takes to be a title contender.
Max Holloway is an even younger fighter who has been on an impressive tear lately. At only 23 years old, the last victory of his six fight streak was his signature win, when he submitted highly ranked Cub Swanson. Holloway brings a tremendous amount of energy and pressure to the Octagon. While his striking game is his best asset, he's no slouch on the ground either, as evidence by the Swanson submission a second guillotine choke victory against Andre Fili.
Holloway has definitely improved since entering the UFC, and the rate at which he's improved has been quite impressive. He's demonstrated a real natural ability to absorb and incorporate new elements into his game. It's almost shocking sometimes to see how much better he's gotten from fight to fight recently, and he appears to be pretty blessed as far as natural fighting instincts go.
This is a tough fight to call. While Holloway seems to be coming in with more momentum, Oliveria has face a much higher level of competition than his younger opponent. Frankie Edgar is arguably one of the top 15 pound-for-pound fighters in the world, and while Oliveria didn't beat him, he certainly gave a respectable performance. Likewise, there's no shame in losing to the next lightweight championship challenger in Donald Cerrone, not to mention it was fighting in a higher weight class.
That said, Holloway does have momentum on his side, and he looked pretty unbeatable against Swanson. MMA math (which is truthfully about as useful as New Math) says that Swanson beat Oliveria, and Holloway beat Swanson, therefore Holloway beats Oliveria. Or, if you want a more convoluted demonstration of something that rarely works: Edgar beat Swanson, Holloway beat Swanson faster, Holloway is better than Edgar, Edgar beat Oliveria, therefore Holloway should beat Oliveria better than Edgar did. Again, this doesn't work consistently, but comparing common opponents if one way to try to evaluate who's going to win a fight (Weidman and Rockhold's respective performances against Machida are one reason I'm leaning toward Rockhold).
If Oliveria can get this to the ground, he holds a big advantage over Holloway. His striking has improved drastically to the point where he could conceivably be competitive in a standing battle. Holloway is getting better by leaps and bounds, but at 23 years old is he ready for the advanced jiu-jitsu game that Oliveria has? This fight has been a coin flip for me, and while I'd been leaning Holloway for most of this week, I'm second guessing myself and going with Oliveria by third round submission. Either way, really looking forward to this fight. Someone text me when all the undercard garbage is out of the way so I can tune in.
FRANK HYDEN, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR
Both guys are really good on the ground, so I think Holloway will keep the fight standing and eat up Oliveira with strikes. I think Holloway gets the second round TKO. Both guys are on win streaks and fighting well, so I expect a good fight. It won't surprise me if Oliveira wins, but I think Holloway has the edge. Either way, it should be an exciting fight. I don't think this goes to decision because of the stakes and the way they fight.
BRAD WALKER, MMATORCH COLUMNIST
Max Holloway is on an absolute spree, by far the best of his career; he is going to dispatch Olivera with ease, then move up the food chain and into title contention as time moves on. He wins this one by TKO in the second.
CASH NORMAN, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR
Since Charles Oliveira first entered the Octagon I've thought he was going to be something special, but Do Bronx quickly entered the school of hard knocks since his debut. In only his third fight Oliveira was submitted by Jim Miller before getting a bully beat down by Donald Cerrone in his fifth matchup. Upon his drop to featherweight he ran into a buzz saw by the name of Cub Swanson, but put on a very competitive match before losing a decision against Frankie Edgar.
Anyone can clearly see the growth Charles Oliveira has had throughout his MMA career. Although he has grown offensively and his ground game is excellent he has many defensive liabilities. Oliveira has a straightforward muay thai style in which he looks to grab a clinch and hit opponents with knees and elbows, or setup a guillotine submission. Whereas Max Holloway has shown he can move in and out of the pocket with ease. While Oliveira has shown improvement in his matches, I think Holloway is growing by leaps and bounds in each of his contests. I think Oliveira may have problems with the movement and angles of Holloway.
I'll pick Holloway to win by TKO in the fourth round after catching Oliveira was a counter.
DAYNE FOX, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR
This is an absolutely awesome fight that I'm anticipating greatly... largely because I don't have any clue how this is going to end. Both have shored up their weaknesses to where I don't see Oliveira automatically submitting Holloway, and I don't see Holloway blasting Oliveira away with sheer volume. And with both being as young as they are they should both continue to improve. However, volume striking tends to weigh heavier into a decision than submission attempts do and Holloway is also very accomplished at stopping opponent's takedowns... so Holloway by decision is my pick.
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