Roundtables
ROUNDTABLE: Predictions for UFC 189's Robbie Lawler vs. Rory MacDonald co-main event
Jul 9, 2015 - 7:45:21 PM ROUNDTABLE: Predictions for UFC 189's Robbie Lawler vs. Rory MacDonald co-main event

DISCUSS ALL THIS IN OUR NEW MMATORCH FORUM

...OH, ONE MORE THING - PLEASE BOOKMARK US & VISIT DAILY!

Who wins the Robbie Lawler-Rory MacDonald co-main event at UFC 189, and how?


DAN MOORE, MMATORCH UK COLUMNIST

Like most of the fights this weekend, I keep going back and forth on my preference. The first fight was incredibly close and I can't see how this one will be any different.

MacDonald has clearly matured and improved since then, but Lawler is like a fine wine who continues to improve with age. I still can't quite believe just how good he's become over the last couple of years.

This fight isn't going to end with a finish, so I'm going to stick my neck on the line and go with MacDonald. It's going to be incredibly close but MacDonald has all the attributes necessary to do enough to win three rounds and take the title back to Canada.


MICHAEL BANE, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR

Lawler is going to try to do what he always does and make this a phone booth fight. Lawler is pretty unique about strikers in that his comfort zone in a fight tends to be well within the vicinity of the fists of his opponent. Most strikers tend to try to find range, get in and throw a few shots, then get out and regroup. Not Lawler. He's in your face, not exactly trying to apply relentless pressure, but more having the confidence that his skills in the striking game will allow him to out damage whomever is across the cage from him.

MacDonald is an entirely different animal, a tactician who comes from the GSP school of planning. MacDonald is a pretty big welterweight, and much like St-Pierre, he utilizes his jab to control distance and keep his opponents from getting close enough to do damage. While Lawler is a true fighter, MacDonald is a true mixed-martial artist, being one of the new breed of athletes who has been training MMA at a young age to make a career out of it.

You have a battle of two vastly contrasting styles here. Lawler is trying to control pace, MacDonald is trying to control distance. Lawler relies on reacting and pure fighting with seeming disregard for taking blows (although he takes far less than his style would suggest), while MacDonald tries to impose a game plan designed to minimize damage and exploit weaknesses. In their first fight, we saw Lawler outs-strike MacDonald by a statistically significant margin and knock him down, while MacDonald scored most of his points with his take downs and ground game. Those types of battles can be hard to score, and it was hard to pick a clear winner, as a split decision showed us.

I don't see strategies changing much here. Lawler is going to fight how Lawler always fights. Lawler's takedown defense is very good, and if there's anything he may focus on training a little bit more than normal, that's what it is. He's confident enough in his boxing and striking that he believes (and is probably right) a fight on the feet is a fight he'll win. MacDonald will try to get the fight to the ground, and his plan will be designed to figure out how to minimize getting punched in the face by Lawler while he tries to get inside to take him off his feet. I think he's going to do it, and we're going to see MacDonald as our new welterweight champion. MacDonald winning may mean a less exciting fight, and unfortunately his combination of coming across as mildly arrogant and socially inept makes him hard to root for. He is a talented, athletic, and hungry young fighter, and it looks like it's his time. MacDonald by unanimous decision.


WILL COOLING, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR

I will come forward and say that I am far from convinced by Robbie Lawler. I cannot shake the feeling that his standing in the division has been inflated by having the good fortune to twice face an out of sorts Johnny Hendricks. He no longer seems to have his old knockout power and he's never been the most technically astute fighter. By all rights, Rory MacDonald has the physical gifts and the technique to dismantle the veteran. And yet when these two fought at UFC 167, Robbie Lawler escaped with the victory because MacDonald's defensive tactics made him the point-scoring aggressor by default. MacDonald should win this fight, but to do so he has to put Lawler under pressure and to that he has to take risks inside the Octagon for the first time since he lost to Carlos Condit. If he plays it safe, he'll again let the fight drift, and Lawler will again do just enough to impress the judges.


FRANK HYDEN, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR

I have to go with Lawler. I think he wins a close decision. It won't be the most exciting fight, but I think it'll be very tense and dramatic. I don't think either guy will be in much danger throughout the fight, but Lawler should outpoint MacDonald to retain the belt. I'm sure some will drool over how great the fight is, but it might not even be in the top five best fights of the evening. I think it'll be good, but not great.


CASH NORMAN, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR

The co-main event between Robbie Lawler and Rory MacDonald should be interesting. As well all know the last time they fought Lawler won via split decision but MacDonald said he had suffered a high ankle sprain prior to the match on The Joe Rogan Experience. I know that many Canadians see Rory MacDonald as the heir apparent to Georges St-Pierre, however, I don't believe this. I don't believe MacDonald is as athletic as Georges nor as dynamic as him in any area. I think eventually Lawler beats MacDonald by TKO in the fourth round and MacDonald never gets another title shot in the welterweight division.


TOM STRONG, MMATORCH UK CONTRIBUTOR

I'm not sure a fight of such magnitude has ever gone as unnoticed as Lawler vs. MacDonald, it's certainly not helped by a certain Irishman taking up every column inch for just sneezing! If there's one thing both of these fighter could learn from Conor McGregor is the way he sells a fight and his ability to make fans tune in to watch him fight, this is a massive fight and it's being dismissed like it's a prelim fight and not one that's for for the UFC Welterweight Title. Anyway, that aside we should be in for another entertaining fight like the first

I don't envisage the fight going much different to their first encounter which resulted in Robbie Lawler taking the split decision victory back at UFC 167. Rory will look to use footwork and his jab to set Lawler up for the takedowns where he can unleash some ground and pound, though if Lawler can stuff those take downs whilst getting into the inside landing punches he might just well retain the title. Rory is still developing his skill set and is only getting better and better, he's gone away after each defeat and come back a better fighter for it, Lawler is as good as he's ever going to get and isn't going to change his fighting style at this stage of his career, this could become his downfall.

Lawler fantastic run will be coming to an end and we'll see a new champion being crowned come Saturday night!

Prediction: Rory MacDonald TKO RD4


DAYNE FOX, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR

As much as I struggle with MacDonald's personality, he is probably the most physically gifted fighter at 170 lbs. His earlier loss to Lawler was probably the best thing to happen to him as it awoke him from autopilot and he has looked fantastic since that time as he has amped up the intensity. Lawler is certainly the best incarnation of himself that he has ever been and will put up a good fight, but I can't see him defeating MacDonald a second time. I'll say MacDonald via GNP in the third or fourth round.