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By: Rich Hansen, MMATorch Columnist
Sometimes this column writes itself. Sometimes, like today, playing Joe Silva is next to impossible. Sure it's easy to write that Demetrious Johnson will fight the number one contender, but what of John Moraga who went from Facebook to getting lit up on Fox? Is Jake Ellenberger almost great or is he a gatekeeper? Does decimating Bobby Voelker means that Robbie Lawler is finally on the cusp of a title shot, or do you stop caring after the word Voelker? Is Liz Carmouche the woman who almost beat Ronda Rousey, or is she the woman who got her first win over an opponent with a .500 record on Saturday night?
So may questions remain unanswered after Saturday night, and with so many of the fights being at welterweight and lightweight, there is no shortage of choices for all of Saturday night's fighters when it comes to setting them up with a future fight. I don't keep track of my batting average (out of wanting to keep some self-confidence in this venture), but I'm pretty damn sure not one of these will come true. Aside from Demetrious Johnson vs. the #1 contender, of course. So watch, he's going to move up to 135 and fight Barao...
Demetrious Johnson: “Mighty Mouse” was as close to perfect as he could ever hope to get, but was that due to his brilliance, or due to a vastly undeserving opponent being placed in front of him? Let's see him fight Joseph Benavidez again, because there's zero doubt in anyone's mind that Johnson and Benavidez are leaps and bounds above everyone else in the division. And in case a win over Formiga isn't enough to convince the UFC that Benavidez is fully rehabilitated from losing in September 2012 to Johnson, they could always put the Benavidez-Formiga on Facebook and screw up the stream, thereby ensuring Benavidez's credentials to fight for a Flyweight Championship.
Next fight: Demetrious Johnson vs. Joseph Benavidez And if Benavidez gets Brazistolled in September, I suppose John Lineker or the winner of Tim Elliott could be next, God forbid.
Rory MacDonald: MacDonald won, he won easily, but he didn't break a sweat and he pissed off Dana White. So, you can scratch MacDonald fights for the title next right off your list there. MacDonald dominated a fringe top-five guy with a jab, great footwork, and little else. How great could he have looked had he opened up the arsenal? Likely he would have looked better than we've ever seen him, but possibly he would have looked unconscious on his back with toes curled. He played it safe, he got the W, but he's not taking a step forward as a result. At least not in the eyes of the guy who signs the checks, (channeling Butters) if you know what I am saying. Personally, I honestly believe that MacDonald wants to get Carlos Condit even more than he wants a lifetime supply of oxygen, shelter, and sustenance, so look for him to call out Condit before the possibility of a Robbie Lawler fight can be proposed to him. I don't think Lawler brings anything to MacDonald that Ellenberger didn't bring, and I don't think MacDonald will do any more against Lawler than he did against MacDonald. And Carlos Condit is going to bring a much more aggressive style than Jake Ellenberger. That's the fight to make.
Next fight: Rory MacDonald vs. Carlos Condit. Or maybe the Lawler fight happens. Demian Maia is possible, depending on whether the Shields thing is a bad joke or not.
Robbie Lawler: Saturday night's other big winner was of course Lawler. I don't care if you do it to Bobby Voelker or to Zeus almighty, a head kick KO on Big Fox is a moment to remember. But to me, that's all it was; a moment. Lawler went in with nothing to gain, and that's what he comes out of Seattle with. I understand Voelker was at best the third choice; these things happen in MMA. You know what doesn't happen in MMA, Gus? In-cage riots. Anyhoooo, I want to see the patient and methodical Lawler in against someone who's going to push pace and be in his face like an ace of bass swinging a mace with the grace of a lady in lace. Sorry. How about the recently retiredun-retiredretiredun-retiredretiredun-retiredretiredun-retiredretiredun-retiredconflicted Nick Diaz. The first fight is still talked about to his day, I can't wait to see how they'd do almost ten years after their April 2004 fight.
Next Fight: Robbie Lawler vs. Nick Diaz If Diaz is retired this week, then Lawler vs. MacDonald is a decent enough fallback, as is Lawler vs. the winner of Carlos Condit vs. Martin Kampmann.
John Moraga: Well, on the bright side, since he came from eking out a win over Chris Cariaso to fighting for the championship on Fox, hopefully no one will remember the way Demetrious Johnson beat him up and stole his lunch money. It was unfair of the UFC to put an untested and underwhelming John Moraga in against the best fighter in his division so soon in his UFC run. I just don't get how the UFC is building this division when great fighters like Darrell Montague, Josh Sampo, Zach Makovsky, Alptekin Ozkilic, Rafael de Friets, et. al. remain unsigned. Whatever, I don't draw a paycheck from Zuffa, they can do what they want. Anyhoooo, Moraga is several fights away from a title shot now, which is probably in the best interests of all parties. I've seen a lot of chatter about a possible Moraga vs. John Dodson fight, but I don't see Moraga having a chance in that one, either. Just because Dodson and Moraga both fought for the title does not mean they are similarly gifted fighters. Moraga's a good fighter, but he's much closer to the guy who was down 20-18 to Chris Cariaso than the guy who deserved to fight Demetrious Johnson.
Next fight: John Moraga vs. Darren Uyenoyama If Uyenoyama gets the hook from Zuffa before getting another fight, I could see Moraga vs. the loser of the August 28 fight between Louis Gaudinot and Tim Elliott. Same goes for the loser of John Lineker vs. Jose Maria Tome on Saturday night.
Liz Carmouche First of all, big congratulations to Carmouche for beating someone with a winning record. It's not every day she gets to do that. Or for that matter, it's not ANY day before July 27, 2013. The UFC wants me to believe she's borderline elite based on the fact that she almost caught Ronda Rousey with a choke back in February? Fine. Then don't pull Miesha Tate and replace her with someone who'd never stepped foot outside of Brazistol until six days before fighting on Bog Fox. Do you really think Alexis Davis wouldn't have taken that fight on short notice? Did you really need to keep McMann vs. Kaufman together? Could they not have moved Julie Kedzie up to the main card to at least give a smidgen of familiarity to the person fighting Carmouche on Freaking Fox? You want me to believe Carmouche is what you want me to believe she is, get her a real fight next time. As far as I'm concerned when it comes to Carmouche, Saturday night didn't happen.
Next fight: Liz Carmouche vs. Alexis Davis A fight with the winner of Kaufman vs. McMann could be in the cards next.
Jake Ellenberger: I am at least willing to entertain the possibility that the giant turd Ellenberger laid in the middle of the KeyArena had less to do with his own tentativeness and had to do more with Rory MacDonald confounding Ellenberger at every turn. It's possible MacDonald is just that good. That said, Ellenberger has lost to Carlos Condit, Martin Kampmann, Rory MacDonald, and is in danger of becoming the Michael Bisping of his division. As in, every time Bispng gets himself positioned a fight or two from a title fight, he gets derailed by the near-elite of his division. But since Ellenberger went out on a jab as opposed to on his own shield, it might be 2015 until he gets a chance to get in the mix, nahmean?
Next fight: Jake Ellenberger vs. Matt Brown, if Brown loses to Mike Pyle If Pyle loses, I have no interest for Ellenberger vs. Pyle 2, but I'd love a rematch with Ellenberger and whomever loses between Condit and Kampmann. Tyron Woodley makes sense, too.
Jorge Masvidal: And now we're to the morass that is 15 – 30 in the lightweight division. There isn't much that separates Masvidal from the other lightweights who won on Saturday night; Danny Castillo, Melvin Guillard, and Daron Cruickshank. It's very tempting to book Masvidal vs. Guillard, Cruickshank vs. Castillo, write briefly about Ed Herman and Mike Chiesa, collect my check, and move on. But I have way too much journalistic integrity for that, despite my lack of being a journalist. After all, I write the word 'I' in reference to myself, I write the word 'nahmean,' and I frequently call Brazil Brazistol, just because. So while I'm still going to pair Masvidal with Guillard, I'm doing it out of love, not sloth.
Next fight: Jorge Masvidal vs. Melvin Guillard. Masvidal vs. the winner of Donald Cerrone vs. Rafael dos Anjos would be a hoot, as would Masvidal vs. Ross Pearson, maybe in Manchester, Dan.
Danny Castillo: Castillo is like the black sheep of Team Alpha Male. Instead of knocking fools out or breaking limbs while keeping the team's purity in tact, he just sits on people's faces and makes Jamie Penick wish he had an office job. But a win is a win, so he's going to get a bigger fight next time out. Well, a smaller fighter, since Tim Means weighed in at 160 lbs., but a bigger name. But since he's likely to take an exciting prospect and make him look bad (see Njokuani, Anthony or Sass, Paul), I think the upside of his next opponent needs to be of similar pedigree.
Next fight: Danny Castillo vs. Bobby Green. What the hell. I mean, they liked the fight a month ago, why not now, #amirite? A fight with Mark Bocek after he grinds Michel Prazares into a pulp makes sense, as does the winner of Myles Jury vs. Mike Ricci.
Melvin Guillard: I sure wish we'd see THAT version of Melvin Guillard every time. Almost three years ago Guillard shipped down to Albuquerque, fought a smart fight en route to defeating Jeremy Stephens, and pissed off the entire internet in the process because there weren't seven pints of blood on the canvas at the conclusion of the fight. Saturday night against Mac Danzig showed how effective Guillard can be when mixing the proper proportions of smart with athletic and explosive. The Guillard we saw last night, if he fights that way every time, he's a top-ten guy.
Next fight: Melvin Guillard vs. Jorge Masvidal. A fight between Guillard and James Krause or Guillard and Nate Diaz make a lot of sense. I know Diaz is coming off what seems like 42 losses in a row and he fancies himself a welterweight this week, but tell me you don't want to see that rematch. I'll wait.
Other fights to make
Daron Cruickshank vs. Anthony Njokuani
Ed Herman vs. CB Dollaway – admit it, it seems strange to you that they haven't fought yet, doesn't it?
Michael Chiesa vs. Sam Stout – a natural fight to make. Thiago Tavares makes sense, in America, after 17 blood tests.
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Jamie Penick, editor-in-chief
(mmatorcheditor@gmail.com)
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