Prediction and Betting Contests
UFC 141 CONTESTS: Confidence Pick and Betting Games are LIVE
Dec 30, 2011 - 5:20:19 PM UFC 141 CONTESTS: Confidence Pick and Betting Games are LIVE

DISCUSS ALL THIS IN OUR NEW MMATORCH FORUM

...OH, ONE MORE THING - PLEASE BOOKMARK US & VISIT DAILY!

By Rich Hansen, MMA Torch Columnist

PICKS ARE DUE AT 5:45 PM CENTRAL TIME

UPDATE

Matt Riddle has been pulled from the card due to an illness. Riddle-Ramos is OFF. All picks on Riddle and Ramos will be removed from Confidence Picks, and point values adjusted accordingly. All bets on Riddle or Ramos will be 'refunded.' Since the fight was canceled so close to bell time, no adjusted entries will be accepted.

Brock versus Alistair. Lesnar versus Overeem. Brock Lesnar versus Alistair Overeem. Diverticulitis versus horse meat. WWE versus K1. Jim Ross versus Michael Schiavello. Muscles upon muscles versus, well, more muscles upon more muscles.

Oh, and there are ten other fights as well. As always, we here at MMA Torch commemorate each major UFC event (along with the occasional major Strikeforce event – and yes, I know that is an oxymoron) by running the MMA Torch Betting and Confidence Pick games. And with UFC 141 just around the corner, it’s time to bring in the new year Torch style; by betting play money and making picks against total strangers on the internet in the pursuit of no cash and prizes.

In the MMA Torch Confidence Picks game, Rich Hansen is your two time defending champion. And while there is a huge conflict of interest at play here, since I tabulate all the entries and run the game, again, no prizes, so nyah nyah. I will be defending against the Englishman Carll Light.

In the MMA Torch Betting Contest, our new champion, veteran player Avery ‘Odin’ Clarke will be defending his title for the first time against the plucky and effervescent Dionicio Ortiz (and yes, I did just pick two unrelated adjectives at random.).


NOTE

Please note that Sean Pierson and Ross Pearson have names that, while spelled differently, are pronounced the exact same way. So as to avoid confusion, please be very precise when you’re making any picks that involve either of these two fighters.


CONFIDENCE PICKS NOTE

UFC 141 is an 11 fight card. Therefore, the point values you assign must range from 11 (most confident) down to 1 (least confident).

When you email your entry, please sort the entry numerically from high to low. Thanks.


BETTING LINES

So, with no further ado, here are the lines we’re using, courtesy of Pinnacle:

Alistair Overeem: -140
Brock Lesnar: +127

Donald Cerrone: -277
Nate Diaz: +245

Jon Fitch: -217
Johny Hendricks: +194

Alexander Gustafsson: -330
Vladimir Matyushenko: +289

Nam Phan: -220
Jimy Hettes: +197

Ross Pearson: -295
Junior Assuncao: +260

Danny Castillo: -167
Anthony Njokuani: +151

Dong Hyun Kim: -370
Sean Pierson: +322

Jacob Volkmann: -250
Efrain Escudero: +222

Matt Riddle: -110
Luis Ramos: +100 (even)

Diego Nunes: -245
Manvel Gamburyan: +218


CONFIDENCE PICKS GAME RULES

NOTE: A player does not need to play both games during each event. Players may choose to submit an entry for one game or the other, or for both, at their own choosing.

Assign a number from 1 through 12 (if a 12 fight card, 1 through 11 if a 11 fight card, etc.), with the highest number going to the fighter you are most confident in winning. Also list your prediction for method of victory, along with the round (or decision if you predict a decision)

Using UFC 124 as a template, here is how simple an entry will look:

Georges St-Pierre – 11 - decision
Thiago Alves - 10 - KO2
Jim Miller - 9 - decision
Stefan Struve - 8 - KO1
Ricardo Almeida - 7 - sub3
Mark Bocek - 6 - sub2
Joe Stevenson - 5 - decision
Dan Miller - 4 - decision
Rafael Natal - 3 - decsion
Matt Riddle - 2 - KO1
John Makdessi - 1 - decision

The first tie-breaker is the sum of confidence points. Using the example above, a Georges St-Pierre victory would earn 11 points, Thiago Alves winning would earn 10 points, etc.

If two participants earn the same number of confidence points, the next tie-breaker will be total number of winners predicted. If Player A earns 40 points on 7 winning picks, and if Player B earns 40 points on 6 winning picks, Player A would be declared the winner.

The next tie-breaker is the number of victory methods predicted correctly. Next would be predicted rounds of victory.

If both players are still tied at this point, both players will be declared winner, and they will face off again, along with the winner of the pool (to be described later), at the next event in a three way dance.

There is no money being wagered in this game, and there are no prizes, short of bragging rights.


BETTING GAME RULES

1.) Every player has $1000 of fake, imaginary, theoretical, play money to wager on each event. This is not a real money game, it is strictly for fun.

2.) Players must place a bet of at least $50, but not more than $500, on each of 3 or more different fighters. Bets may be in any denomination, as long as the amount falls in the range of $50 - $500.

3.) Players may also place a parlay bet. A parlay bet is a bet placed on multiple fighters. All fighters in the parlay must win their fights in order for the parlay to pay off. Parlay bets pay off at a higher rate than a bet on a single fighter. The parlay bet may be placed on either 2 or on 3 fighters.

4.) The minimum parlay bet is $50. The maximum parlay bet is $200. This money comes out of the $1000 allotted to each player. The parlay bet is not separate from the $1000 budget. A player is not required to play a parlay bet. The maximum number of parlay bets a player may wager is one.

5.) Whether or not a player chooses to place a parlay bet, the player must still place at least three straight bets ie: It is not legal to place two bets on individual fighters and one parlay bet. No entry is considered valid unless there are a minimum of 3 straight bets placed on individual fighters.

6.) If a fight ends in a draw, any money bet on said fighter will be refunded, with no fake money commission taken. If a fighter in a 3-fighter parlay is involved in a draw, that fighter will be removed from the parlay and the 3-fighter parlay will be treated as a 2-fighter parlay. If a fighter in a 2-fighter parlay is involved in a draw, that fighter will be removed from the parlay and the 2-fighter parlay will be treated as a straight bet on the remaining fighter.

Instructions on how to read and utilize the betting lines

7.) If a fighter has a positive number such as +150 next to his name, he is the underdog, which means a successful bet on that fighter will pay off at a higher rate. That means that if the fighter wins, the bet will payout $150 net profit for every $100 bet on him. If a player were to bet $500 on a +150 fighter, and the fighter wins, the player will profit $750. If a player bets $500 on a +150 fighter, and the fighter loses, the player will lose his $500 bet.

8.) If a fighter has a negative number such as -200 next to his name, he is the favorite, which means a successful bet on that fighter will pay off at a lower rate. That means that if the fighter wins, the bet will payout $100 net profit for every $200 bet on him. If a player were to bet $500 on a -200 fighter, and the fighter wins, the player will profit $250. If a player bets $500 on a -200 fighter, and the fighter loses, the player will lose his $500 bet.

Structure for each game

9.) For each UFC numbered event, both the Confidence Picks and Betting Game will feature a champion and a challenger facing off against one another. The winner of the head to head battle will be declared the reigning champion.

10.) All other players for each UFC numbered event will compete against each other for the right to face off against the reigning champion at the next UFC numbered event. This is known as The Pool.

11.) As games administrator, I have the subjective right to eliminate any entry for any reason I deem worthy.

12.) Entries may be submitted via email (mmatorchrich@gmail.com), or on the comment section of this post. Email is the preferred method, because if a player posts an invalid entry, I have no way to make sure I can get hold of the player so that it may be corrected. Please, under no circumstances should you both email and post on the board your entry. One or the other please, preferably email.

13.) Any questions, please email me and ask, or find me on Twitter and ask. There are no new rules in this list of rules. I just wanted to have everything listed together. But that said, if you have a question, just ask.

Most important rule

14.) If you mention being a Packer fan, you will be banned. Try me.


Follow me on Twitter, @MMATorchRich.