Penick's Take
PENICK: Original UFC 131 headliner Brock Lesnar facing tougher heavyweight landscape upon return in 2012
Jun 8, 2011 - 6:00:38 PM PENICK: Original UFC 131 headliner Brock Lesnar facing tougher heavyweight landscape upon return in 2012

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

This weekend's UFC 131 event was supposed to be Brock Lesnar's quickest path to a shot at regaining his title. However, with the resurgence of his diverticulitis and subsequent surgery taking him out of the event, Lesnar's return to action won't come until the beginning of 2012, where he'll be looking at a very different heavyweight landscape in the UFC.

After an embarrassing TKO loss to Cain Velasquez in October, where he stumbled around the cage after getting knocked off his bearings before finally getting put away, Lesnar's image took a hit. A lot of fans and writers took to the internet to proclaim the end of the "Brock Lesnar Era," with many believing he was simply going to tuck his tail between his legs and leave the sport as he had walked away from a number of other endeavors.

But Lesnar had no intention on riding off into the sunset. He took a coaching spot on The Ultimate Fighter, sacrificing six weeks of time at home in Alexandria, Minn. to be filmed and coach a group of fighters in Las Vegas opposite Junior Dos Santos. The subsequent fight with Dos Santos could have put Lesnar into a rematch with Velasquez in the fall, along with a shot at redemption for what happened in October.

Now, though Lesnar's surgery was a success and all signs point to him getting back by the beginning of next year, he may have a more difficult path to go through before getting another shot at the title.

The UFC's heavyweight division is likely going to be infused with the top guys from Strikeforce by early 2012. The Heavyweight World Grand Prix continues next week with Alistair Overeem vs. Fabricio Werdum and Josh Barnett vs. Brett Rogers. However, while they are currently still talking as if the tournament will be contested to completion, the booking of Nick Diaz vs. Georges St. Pierre has opened the door for fighters crossing over, and it could lead to the rest of the tournament not necessarily taking place as planned.

With fighters like Overeem, Werdum, Antonio "Bigfoot" Silva, Sergei Kharitonov and more likely entering the mix, Lesnar may need to win more than just one fight in order to get another shot at Cain Velasquez, or whomever may be the champion at that point.

The winner of the UFC 131 main event between Shane Carwin and Junior Dos Santos will face Velasquez in a bout that's likely to take place in October. If that's the case, the winner of that fight will likely be ready to then defend the belt again in early 2012 himself.

Lesnar's not going to be thrown right into a title fight upon his return, so he won't be the one getting that fight. In his return fight, he's likely looking at a bout with the loser of this weekend's main event, or possibly the loser of the title fight in October. Other options might be a third bout with Frank Mir, or perhaps a fight with one of the fighters crossing over from Strikeforce.

Whether that happens depends on if the tournament actually does play out to completion. If it does, the winner will be crowned in the early months of 2012. If the plan is to have the winner of that tournament fight the UFC Heavyweight Champion, that fight wouldn't take place until sometime in the summer, meaning the earliest Lesnar would possibly get an opportunity would be sometime in the fall or winter of 2012. That would likely mean him taking another fight in the summer if he makes a successful return at the outset of the year.

Of course, that path is contingent on him coming back strong and defeating whichever opponents he's matched up against. But the quick path to the title shot will no longer be there for him upon his return. There's going to be a lot of talent "in the mix" by the beginning of next year, and the waters will be a lot murkier at the top than they are right now.

That doesn't mean Lesnar can't get back to the top, though. Depending on how this illness continues to affect him (or how well he's able to combat it with his diet and more), and depending on how his recovery from surgery goes, he could be back a lot stronger in the winter. Adding another signature win or two over a couple of big named opponents would make for an even bigger title fight down the line, and those added fights would give him even more in-cage experience.

In the end, the return of the illness could end up being the best thing for his career. A win over Dos Santos would have sent him into the rematch with Velasquez, and it could have proven to be far too soon. He'll have more time to recover and improve now, and though he'll be out of action for over a year his return will still be highly anticipated.

We haven't seen anywhere near the end of Brock Lesnar, but he's going to have a much longer path back to the top with this delay than he was otherwise facing. The UFC's purchase of Strikeforce assured the eventual entrance of more talent to the division from that roster, and it's going to mean a lot more competition at the top by early 2012.