Penick's Take
UFC 121 PREVIEW: Penick's breakdown and predictions for Lesnar vs. Velasquez event from Anaheim
Oct 23, 2010 - 11:30:41 AM UFC 121 PREVIEW: Penick's breakdown and predictions for Lesnar vs. Velasquez event from Anaheim

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

This preview originally published on Thursday, October 21

The next great heavyweight matchup is finally here, as Brocktober culminates in this excellent Heavyweight Title clash between Brock Lesnar and Cain Velasquez. After months of anticipation, a three episode Primetime special on Spike and more hype on the countdown show and around Spike, ESPN and more, the two heavyweights will finally step into the cage and set all speculation aside. But there's more than just this massive title fight on the card, so let's get to what's on tap:

Brock Lesnar vs. Cain Velasquez (UFC Heavyweight Championship)

Brock Lesnar is an unprecedented fighter in this sport. Entering the sport after finding fame and fortune in the WWE, and coming up just short of making an entrance into the National Football League, Lesnar made the move to the UFC after only one fight. To face the level of competition he has faced through his first five fights (not including Min Soo Kim prior to the UFC) is just unheard of in this era of the sport.

Discredit the man all you want, but the fact remains that in his first true fight, he took on a former World Champion in Frank Mir. And, while many try to write off Mir's victory over Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, those same people use Cain Velasquez's win over an even slower and more worn down "Big Nog" to elevate his status heading into this fight. Lesnar's subsequent run following his, to date, only loss simply cannot be matched by any fighter today from their third to sixth fights.

Heath Herring, while not a world beater, had 25 times as many fights as Lesnar when they fought. Randy Couture was already a living legend when they faced off, and although he wasn't anywhere close to Lesnar's size, it's not as if Couture had never fought a giant heavyweight before. Lesnar is simply unlike any other giant heavyweights the sport has seen. And then in the rematch with Mir, Lesnar got his revenge from what he felt was an unjust standup and a mental mistake that led to a submission loss in their first meeting nearly 18 months prior.

Lesnar has answered many questions in his two and half year run in the UFC, and he proved in his most recent fight against Shane Carwin at UFC 116 that he's got the heart and will to continue when faced with adversity. Surviving the first round onslaught of Carwin, something no other fighter had done to date, was one of Lesnar's most impressive feats, and he earned his first submission victory in the second to seal the performance.

Cain Velasquez himself is a bit of a phenom. Making his UFC debut after only two professional fights himself - due to local promotions and their inability to find him willing opponents - Velasquez has torn through everyone put in front of him. The two-time All American NCAA D-1 wrestler from Arizona State has overwhelmed many fighters with his relentless speed, ever-improving striking game and unending cardio.

Velasquez rolled through Brad Morris and Jake O'Brien upon his entrance to the UFC, earning first round stoppages in both. Dennis Stojnic then gave him slightly more trouble, but he continued his assault in the second round of their bout and an exhausted Stojnic was finally saved by the referee.

Cain's first big opportunity came against long time veteran Cheick Kongo at UFC 99 in Germany. Velasquez was tagged a number of times in the fight, with his knees buckling from the very hard hitting Kongo. But, in that fight, Velasquez was able to revert to his wrestling to stymy Kongo and work towards a unanimous decision victory.

A subsequent win over Ben Rothwell earned Velasquez his biggest fight to date against Minotauro Nogueira. Cain's striking was in top form here, as a zombified Nogueira couldn't contend with his crisp combinations and pin-point counter strikes, and an uppercut from Velasquez sent Nogueira crashing to the ground. A couple of follow up punches on the ground had referee Herb Dean stepping in as Velasquez became only the second fighter to finish the legendary Nogueira.

Both fighters bring their wrestling base into this fight, and in that area the edge goes to the Champion. He was a more successful collegiate wrestler, and his size, speed and athleticism works in his favor in that department. Striking advantage goes to Cain at this point, as he's shown himself to be a much more technical striker, and Lesnar clearly had some major holes in that area during the Carwin fight.

But Lesnar has been concentrating on that part of his game heading into this fight, and his personal coach Marty Morgan understands what they're up against in Velasquez. Morgan coached Lesnar's training partner and current Bellator Heavyweight Champion Cole Konrad when Konrad faced Velasquez in wrestling in college. That was just wrestling, yes, but it's a significant piece to this fight's puzzle.

This is a fight in which both of these fighters have avenues to win. Velasquez can absolutely out-strike Lesnar in a pure standup battle at this point, but Lesnar's chin isn't Nogueira's at this point. If Cain can avoid being put on his back, and can avoid being dropped by Lesnar's strikes connecting, I can see him taking a win on points in a tough, five round battle. I don't see him finishing Lesnar.

But, I don't think he'll be able to avoid those things. Lesnar is a continually evolving fighter. His striking will be better than the Carwin fight, and he'll hold his own in that area. He'll look to press the pace of this fight, and he'll be looking to bring the fight to the ground whether it's by a right hand, a straight shot or by getting the fight to the cage and dragging Velasquez down with him. The fact is, at some point in this fight, Velasquez will be on his back, and I like Lesnar every time in that equation. The big ham hock fists find their mark in this one, and Lesnar becomes the first heavyweight to defend the UFC Heavyweight Championship for a third time.

PREDICTION: Lesnar via TKO in the fourth round

Jake Shields vs. Martin Kampmann (Welterweight)

Shields makes his long-overdue debut into the UFC off of the highest profile victory of his career against Dan Henderson in April. The now former Strikeforce Middleweight Champion returns to his natural weight class, where he held a title for the now-defunct EliteXC, and he has the rare path of needing just one fight to earn a title shot in the organization. As Dana White said at the pre-fight press conference on Wednesday, Shields would have gotten a title shot right away based off that win over Henderson if it weren't for timing.

Shields has won 14 straight fights, and has been undefeated over the last five years. He holds victories over Dave Menne, Yushin Okami, Carlos Condit, Mike Pyle, Paul Daley, Robbie Lawlor and Jason "Mayhem" Miller in addition to the Henderson win, and has been one of the best fighters not on the UFC roster for a long time.

Kampmann, meanwhile, re-emerged as a contender in the division with consecutive victories over Jacob Volkmann and Paulo Thiago. He had been derailed by a loss to Paul Daley last September, but the Thiago fight was especially impressive this June. Thiago came in as the favorite, having only been bested previously by Jon Fitch, and Kampmann not only out-struck Thiago, he out-grappled him as well. The extremely impressive win allowed him this opportunity to welcome Shields to the fold and play spoiler to Shields' title aspirations. At the same time, another victory in entertaining and impressive fashion could earn Kampmann a title opportunity of his own.

This fight is an excellent one at the top end of the welterweight division, and while Kampmann can certainly out-strike Shields in this fight, the grappling end will not be as easy. If Shields can survive punches from Kampmann like he survived the right hand from Dan Henderson, I like his chances to take this fight to the ground. When that happens, while I believe Kampmann is a very formidable ground fighter in his own right, this one is all Shields. I think Shields does just that, and he makes his mark in the UFC Octagon with a decisive victory.

PREDICTION: Shields via submission in the second round

Tito Ortiz vs. Matt Hamill (Light Heavyweight)

Another Tito Ortiz fight, another claim that he's 100% entering the fight. If he loses to Matt Hamill and produces another injury that he was battling through the UFC should cut ties with him outright. But, if he is truly back to as good as he can possibly be following a March neck surgery, he can still be a more than capable opponent for anyone.

Ortiz has gone 0-3-1 since his consecutive victories over Ken Shamrock in 2006. He's battled injuries, and had a lengthy layoff throughout much of 2008 and 2009 after undergoing back surgery and having a public dispute with the UFC. But he returned last November and lost a decision to Forrest Griffin.

He was supposed to return against Chuck Liddell after the eleventh season of The Ultimate Fighter, but was fired from the show when he needed that March neck surgery. Now, he takes on his former protege and TUF 3 student in Hamill.

Hamill is coming into this fight off of a victory over Keith Jardine and a "victory" over Jon Jones in 2010. The Jones victory was a disqualification due to Jones' use of illegal 12-6 elbows, and the Jardine fight was marred by an apparent staph infection Hamill was allowed to fight with. Along with that, it was questionable majority decision at that.

Prior to this year, however, Hamill had been very impressive, outside of a tough loss to Rich Franklin. With stoppage victories over Mark Munoz, Reese Andy and Tim Boetsch over the last three years, Hamill has shown some power along with an improved overall fight game. But this fight is really about what Tito has left. Tito can compete, he's proven that with decision losses to tough competition and the draw with Rashad Evans. If he has enough in the tank, he might be too much, at least for two rounds, for Hamill.

PREDICTION: Ortiz via decision

Diego Sanchez vs. Paulo Thiago (Welterweight)

This welterweight fight sees both fighters in need of a bounce back victory. While Thiago is looking to rebound from only his second career loss, to Martin Kampmann in June, Sanchez is in a more desperate state, suffering back to back losses to B.J. Penn and John Hathaway.

Prior to those losses, Sanchez had won four straight fights in both the welterweight and lightweight divisions. Heading into the Hathaway fight, there were reports of Sanchez out partying and not training seriously for the fight, and Hathaway picked him apart in that fight en route to the unanimous decision win.

Thiago holds victories over the likes of Josh Koscheck, Mike Swick and Jacob Volkmann in the UFC, but Kampmann was able to control him in all aspects of their fight in June. This is going to be a tough fight for Sanchez, but it's one in which he can pull off the win. I think we'll see a fast paced affair in this one, and if Sanchez has gotten things together with this camp he can pull off the win. This one is kind of a toss-up fight, as both fighters have questions surrounding how they'll come out in this fight, but I'll take Sanchez with the slight upset to avoid three straight losses.

PREDICTION: Sanchez via decision

Brendan Schaub vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (Heavyweight)

Gabriel Gonzaga has become the perennial gatekeeper in the heavyweight division. After knocking out Mirko Cro Cop with a vicious head kick in 2007, he fell short in his bid to capture the Heavyweight Title when Randy Couture finished him in the third round of their bout at UFC 74.

Since then, he's lost fights to Fabricio Werdum, Shane Carwin and Junior Dos Santos. He's picked up wins in that time over Justin McCully, Josh Hendricks and Chris Tuchscherer. He remains a dangerous opponent for any fighter, both standing and on the ground, but his time as a title challenger has passed him by.

As for Schaub, he's getting his biggest opportunity since losing in the finals of The Ultimate Fighter 11. After that knockout loss to Roy Nelson, Schaub has rattled off two straight first round stoppage wins of Chase Gormley and Tuchscherer. Schaub's striking game has improved, and he hits very hard to go along with his increasing technicality.

This fight is going to stay on the feet, and both fighters are wholly capable of knocking the other out. This is Schaub's opportunity to make a huge statement, and I think he's going to do that in impressive fashion. Gonzaga's taken a lot of punishment in his fights against Carwin and Dos Santos, and his chin won't be as solid as it used to be. I like the small upset play here a lot.

PREDICTION: Schaub via TKO in the first round


=====SPIKE TV PRELIMS LIVE=====

Court McGee vs. Ryan Jensen (Middleweight)

The Ultimate Fighter 11 winner takes on Ryan Jensen in a fight geared for the TUF winner. Jensen is a highly capable fighter, and he's coming off a nice submission win over Jesse Forbes in May, but he's been very up and down in his MMA career, especially in the UFC. He's notched just a 2-4 record in the UFC, all four losses coming by submission, though one was due to strikes from Mark Munoz.

As for McGee, a loss to Jeremy Horn in 2007 remains the only blemish on his record, and he's coming off a submission of Kris McCray to earn the title of The Ultimate Fighter. He's finished nine of his 12 career wins, and brings a fairly well rounded game to this fight. It should be a competitive fight, but McGee needs to follow up his TUF win with a good performance, and I think he'll do just that.

PREDICTION: McGee via TKO in the second round

Patrick Cote vs. Tom Lawlor (Middleweight)

Patrick Cote has taken a fall down the ladder in terms of his placement on the card here. After a knee injury halted his title shot against Anderson Silva at the outset of the third round, Cote finally made a return 18 months later, but was soundly defeated by Alan Belcher by submission.

As for the always entertaining Lawlor, after dropping a highly debatable split decision to Aaron Simpson, Lawlor was then submitted by Joe Doerksen in May at UFC 113. Lawlor has shown a good striking game and some decent ground work, but it's his cardio that has failed him in those last two losses. He had a great first round against Simpson before fading, and in the Doerksen fight he ran out of gas in the second round, partially leading to the submission loss.

Both fighters can win this fight at this point. Cote had to deal with a long layoff and didn't look great against Belcher, while Lawlor has not been able to follow up solid starts in the last two fights to earn the victory. This will be a competitive fight, and both fighters need to win, but I give a slight edge to Cote in this one.

PREDICTION: Cote via decision

=====PRELIMINARY CARD QUICK PICKS=====

• Mike Guymon over Daniel Roberts via TKO in the second round

• Sam Stout over Paul Taylor via decision

• Dong Yi Yang over Chris Camozzi via TKO in the third

• Jon Madsen over Gilbert Yvel via decision

=====BETTING CONTEST PICKS=====

$500 on Schaub
$400 on Lesnar
$100 on Sanchez