Penick's Take
UFC 115 PREVIEW: Penick's breakdown and predictions for Liddell vs. Franklin event
Jun 12, 2010 - 10:53:56 AM UFC 115 PREVIEW: Penick's breakdown and predictions for Liddell vs. Franklin event

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UFC 115 airs live on pay-per-view this Saturday night, headlined by the light heavyweight showcase between former champions Chuck Liddell and Rich Franklin. In addition to being the UFC's first trip to Vancouver, British Columbia, the event also boasts a number of exciting fights featuring some very good talent. It's not by any means the most star studded card, but after DecisionFest 2010 at UFC 114, this event is sure to be a change of pace. Now onto the fights!

Chuck Liddell vs. Rich Franklin (Light Heavyweight)

Saturday's main event pits two longtime staples in the UFC facing off in a fight that neither really saw coming. Franklin dropped to the middleweight division as Liddell was taking over the division, and he went on to win the Title and defend it multiple times before running into the inimitable Anderson Silva. Twice.

After successfully moving back to 205 lb., Franklin then found himself relegated to the role of company man, taking fights with no real bearing on his standing in the division he hoped to make his new home. After his most recent loss to Vitor Belfort, he's hoping to pick up a win over a legend to re-establish himself in the light heavyweight division.

As for Liddell, after three knockout losses in his last five fights, his ability to compete in the division in which he used to reign has been fairly questioned. His last two losses were especially brutal, with a shotgun blow from Rashad Evans preceding him getting caught by current division Champion Mauricio "Shogun" Rua.

Liddell has taken 14 months off in between fights, but he's coming into this fight in arguably the best shape he's ever been in. He's had a great training camp by all accounts, and he's looking as ripped as he ever has. How that translates to his performance in the cage will be revealed on Saturday night.

Liddell's got a good idea of what Franklin will attempt to do in this fight, as Rich's gameplan will be to use his leg and body kicks, along with a steady stream of his jab, to keep Liddell at a distance, popping in with combinations and doing some damage on multiple occasions. Chuck will need to check the kicks and get in close enough to land the big right hand, and while he's certainly got the power to knock Rich out, that may be his only path to victory at this point.

If Rich can avoid getting tagged with the right hand, I'd expect him to successfully implement a solid gameplan and win at least two of the rounds with effective striking while avoiding damage. I can certainly see a Liddell KO coming, but I think Rich gets back on track and starts to climb up the light heavyweight division. Of the two, Franklin's the one I'd give at least a chance to return to a Title shot before his career is done.

PREDICTION: Franklin via unanimous decision

Pat Barry vs. Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic (Heavyweight)

This is, quite simply, one hell of an exciting heavyweight matchup. Pat Barry is a completely likable and enjoyable fighter, a former kickboxer turned MMA fighter just a couple of years ago who has done nothing but tackle more experienced and, in most cases, much larger opponents.

Mirko Cro Cop is attempting to regain some of the aura he had during his tenure in Pride, though his days as one of the most feared heavyweight strikers in the sport have passed him by. He's 2-1 in his last three fights since returning to the UFC, though his one loss in that stretch, to Junior Dos Santos, was a statement that said he's not going to compete with the best of the best the division has to offer.

Barry, while only a six fight professional, brings a vicious arsenal of kicks and punches capable of putting anyone out, and at the very least hurt them. If you get hit by something he throws at you, rest assured you're going to feel it.

I can't see this fight going all three rounds, and I'd wager to guess that it doesn't reach the third. Cro Cop may very well have the skills to beat someone at Barry's level, but the speed of Barry and the power and energy he brings to the fight will see this one going his way. It should be a great and exciting heavyweight fight, but Barry's smile will be filling the arena on Saturday night.

PREDICTION: Barry via TKO in the second round

Paulo Thiago vs. Martin Kampmann (Welterweight)

The only fight featuring a top 10 fighter in their division, Paulo Thiago is looking to win his fourth fight in five Octagon appearances when he faces Martin Kampmann. This is a fight between two very decent strikers with a better ground game, though for Kampmann he surely prefers to stand in his fights.

Thiago's most recent victory over Mike Swick was an extremely impressive showing of an improved striking game, and the submission he pulled off in quick fashion on the ground was indicative of his black belt level jiu jitsu.

Kampmann is a talented ground fighter in his own right, but he's nowhere near Thiago's level at this point. He rebounded from a loss to Paul Daley with an impressive submission of Jacob Volkmann in January, but he'll definitely be at a disadvantage on the ground in this one.

Kampmann is very hard to stop on the feet, and his striking is at least comparable, if not better than Thiago's. If it stays standing I like Kampmann's chances to out strike Thiago and find a way to win at least two rounds. I don't see the fight staying up-right for 15 minutes, though, and once it hits the ground it will be a very interesting fight. Whether Kampmann can hold his own on the mat, and how he withstands the submissions of Thiago will be the true story of the fight. Kampmann will survive for awhile, and he'll have some success on the feet, but in the end I still like Thiago to pick up the win here.

PREDICTION: Thiago via submission in the third round

Ben Rothwell vs. Gilbert Yvel (Heavyweight)

The second of two hard hitting heavyweight bouts on the card is certain to be a less technical, but not necessarily less exciting bout, than the Cro Cop vs. Barry fight later during the event. Both fighters will be trying to rebound from losses in their respective UFC debuts to two of the top fighters in the division.

Rothwell lost to Cain Velasquez by TKO in the second round of their bout last October, and this will be his first fight back in the Octagon since the UFC 104 event. A nine year veteran of the sport with 37 fights under his belt, Rothwell is 1-2 in his last three fights after a two year winning streak spanning 13 fights.

Yvel has been around even longer, compiling a 36-14-1-1 record since first stepping into the ring in 1997. Infamous for attacking a referee in a fight in 2004, as well as some, to say it nicely, unsportsmanlike behavior in multiple fights throughout his career, Yvel has tried to rebuild his reputation over the last couple of years.

While Yvel has lost two of his last three fights as well, to Junior Dos Santos and Josh Barnett, he's certainly still the more violent and heavier hitting of the two. Rothwell is a heavyweight punching bag, capable of taking inordinate amounts of punishment; but despite the fact that he's a very good fighter in his own right, I'd expect this fight to go very similar to his bout with Andrei Arlovski on Affliction's first pay-per-view card. There's going to be a lot of leather thrown about the cage, and fans should expect a couple of bruised and battered fighters by the end of this one.

PREDICTION: Yvel via TKO in the third round

Carlos Condit vs. Rory MacDonald (Welterweight)

One of the more exciting match ups on the card, up can coming phenom Rory MacDonald will be out to make a huge statement in front of a hometown crowd in Vancouver. Carlos Condit is looking to climb back into a top 10 standing in the welterweight division, and in his first fight since a split decision victory over Jake Ellenberger he'll try to show what made him a force in the WEC.

Amazingly, in 29 fights, Condit's victory over Ellenberger was his first by decision. He had gone to the judges' scorecards twice before in fights that did not go his way, including his UFC debut to Martin Kampmann, but his other 23 victories have all come by way of TKO or submission.

MacDonald, at only 20 years of age, has already gained praise as the future of the division. At 10-0, with all of his victories coming by stoppage, this is the first major opportunity for MacDonald to introduce himself to MMA fans everywhere.

Condit's got the height and reach advantage in the fight, but that came very close to not being enough against Ellenberger. This should be a great test for both fighters, who are equally strong on the feet as they are on the ground. I really like MacDonald here, however, and expect an impressive victory from what should be an excellent fight.

PREDICTION: MacDonald via submission in the second round



***SPIKE TV PRELIMINARY CARD***



Tyson Griffin vs. Evan Dunham (Lightweight)

This is a very good lightweight bout between the undefeated Dunham and the always exciting Tyson Griffin. Griffin finally shook off the stigma that he doesn't finish fights in his last bout, knocking out the notoriously difficult to finish Hermes Franca at UFC 103 last September.

Dunham is coming off the most impressive victory of his career, submitting TUF 8 winner Efrain Escudero with a sick arm contortion in January. He holds six submission victories to go along with two knockouts and two decisions, and is 3-0 in the Octagon.

Griffin has been on the wrong end of a couple of exciting decision fights in the UFC, losing close ones to former Lightweight Champion Sean Sherk and current Champion Frankie Edgar, but he had taken seven straight fights to the judges scorecards before his victory over Franca. That was a stretch in stark contrast to the 8-0 start to his career where he stopped all eight opponents.

Griffin is a big step up in competition for Dunham, and I think it's going to be too much for him at this point. Dunham's a competitor, and he'll make this a tough fight, but he's not going to submit Griffin, not a chance, and he'll have a hard time out-pointing him. I like Griffin to continue his path towards a possible Lightweight Title shot in this one.

PREDICTION: Griffin via TKO in the third round

Mac Danzig vs. Matt Wiman (Lightweight)

The season six winner of The Ultimate Fighter picked up his first win in four fights in February when he edged past Justin Bucholz by decision in a fight that was closer than it probably should have been.

Wiman is 5-3 in the UFC, and is coming off a victory himself, but he had lost two straight prior to his UFC 107 decision victory over Shane Nelson.

Both fighters are pretty evenly matched in all areas, and should each be able to find success throughout this fight. Danzig desperately needs to string some wins together after his three fight skid, so this is a must win for him, and I think he can edge out another one.

PREDICTION: Danzig via unanimous decision


***QUICK PRELIMINARY CARD PICKS***

• David Loiseau over Mario Miranda via TKO in the second round

• James Wilks over Peter Sobotta via submission in the second round

• Claude Patrick over Ricardo Funch via submission in the third round

• Mike Pyle over Jesse Lennox via unanimous decision