Penick's Take
UFC 114 PREVIEW: Penick's breakdown and predictions for Rampage vs. Evans event in Las Vegas
May 28, 2010 - 10:42:20 PM UFC 114 PREVIEW: Penick's breakdown and predictions for Rampage vs. Evans event in Las Vegas

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

UFC 114 is upon us this Saturday, and one of the most anticipated fights of the year will finally take place between Quinton "Rampage" Jackson and Rashad Evans. With the loss of Forrest Griffin, this is truly a one fight pay-per-view, but it is more than worth tuning in for. The rest of the fights on the card, while not necessarily relevant to any division's title picture, all have the potential to provide exciting action and make for an enjoyable pay-per-view event. With that out of the way, onto the fights!

Quinton "Rampage" Jackson vs. Rashad Evans (Light Heavyweight)

The time for talking is finally over, as this epic grudge match finally comes to a head on Saturday night.

For Rampage, the talk from Rashad Evans and all that has gone on between him and Dana White because of the A-Team movie has motivated him to work harder for this fight than any other. At least, that's what he continues to tell everyone. Whether that's actually what has happened will be revealed based on how he fights on Saturday.

Rashad comes into the fight supremely confident. He's fought twice in the time that Rampage has been out of action, losing his first fight and his Title before rebounding with a decision victory over Thiago Silva. His coach, Greg Jackson, believes their gameplan will be superior and that the things they want to exploit and implement during the fight will be there for them to do.

This is the quintessential speed vs. strength bout, and there are a lot of pundits who believe Rashad's speed will be the key in this fight, and that he'll outwork Rampage throughout the fight toward a unanimous decision.

With Rampage seemingly re-dedicated to his training and putting in his best camp since the Wanderlei fight, I don't see it happening that way. It would be great to see a return of the Pride Rampage; the slamming, ground and pound nightmare that wrought highlight after highlight against his opponents, but those days have passed him by. Still, I think we're in for a performance more along the lines of his fights with Wanderlei and Chuck Liddell in the UFC than those with Forrest Griffin and Keith Jardine.

I'm buying into the Rampage hype from the Primetime show, and though he may not stay dedicated to the sport after this fight, I think he's more than motivated for Rashad and I think he's going to take him out in violent fashion.

PREDICTION: Rampage via KO in the second round.

Michael Bisping vs. Dan Miller (Middleweight)

Dan Miller is a good fighter. He's a very good grappler that burst into the UFC on a seven fight unbeaten streak before rattling off three straight victories. With that run, however, came a jump in competition. A combination of tragic outside circumstances and a highly skilled opponent led to two straight losses, as he was outwrestled by Chael Sonnen and beaten on the feet by Demian Maia after dislocating his thumb in the first round of their bout in February.

Michael Bisping has been a very good and sometimes underrated fighter throughout his run in the UFC after winning the third season of The Ultimate Fighter, but when it comes to bigger and more high profile fights, he's at times seemed to drop the ball. His most recent loss to Wanderlei Silva came in many ways because he let up at the wrong time twice in that fight, and lost the second and third rounds because of the final minute in each.

Miller has had to endure some mentally and emotionally devastating family issues over the last year, losing his first child during child birth days before his fight with Chael Sonnen and his second child taking ill before his fight with Maia, and it's taken a toll on his performances.

For as heartbreaking a story as Miller has, he's once again getting into the cage against a well rounded opponent in Bisping, and this is a fight that would be hard for him to win with a clear head and nothing else going on in his family life. He'll have a lot of people pulling for him, but unfortunately for him at this stage of their careers, Bisping is the stronger fighter, and I think he'll get back on track in this one.

PREDICTION: Bisping via unanimous decision

Todd Duffee vs. Mike Russow (Heavyweight)

This is an interesting heavyweight bout, and an extremely tough test for the emerging Duffee. At 6-0 with all of his victories coming by stoppage, Duffee's certainly got lofty expectations heading into his first UFC fight since his official record-setting seven second knockout of Tim Hague last summer.

Russow has won eight straight fights since 2007, and has only one loss in his career. The Chicago police officer is more than a formidable challenge to the young prospect, and very well could find a way to victory in this one.

If Russow can wade past the knockout power of Duffee's strikes and get this fight to the ground, he'll test out what Duffee can do on the ground and, in all likelihood, can lock in a submission. That, however, requires getting past those strikes and getting past that power. I'm going to say he'll do it for a bit, but ultimately Duffee will prove too much in this one.

PREDICTION: Duffee via TKO in the second round

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Jason Brilz (Light Heavyweight)

Nogueira steps into his second UFC bout, after making an extremely impressive debut, stopping Luiz Cane in the first round of their bout at UFC 106 in November. The 18-3 fighter and brother of former Interim Heavyweight Champion Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira was set to face off with Forrest Griffin in a fight that could have vaulted him into the Title picture before Griffin came up injured.

Brilz stepped in for this one on short notice, and though he's not a well known fighter to UFC fans, he presents a somewhat sneaky challenger to Nogueira in this one because of that fact. He's got a great record against less than stellar competition, but he's still got some skills.

Unfortunately for Brilz, one of his big strengths is his wrestling and ground game, and against one of the Nogueira brothers that's not going to do you much good. Brilz may find a way to pull of an upset here, but I don't think it's going to happen.

PREDICTION: Nogueira via KO in the first round

Diego Sanchez vs. John Hathaway (Welterweight)

One of the more interesting fights on the card outside of the main event, Diego Sanchez's return to the welterweight division brings a lot of questions as to what he'll be able to do back up in his old long time weight class.

Hathaway comes in as a taller fighter, and one of a few British fighters that has acclimated themselves to the wrestling aspect of mixed martial arts. He's also shown off a vicious streak at times, stopping seven of his fights due to strikes.

The big question for Sanchez after his humbling loss to B.J. Penn at UFC 107 in December is where he's at mentally. Though he's lost fights in the past, this was the first time he had been thoroughly defeated, landing a shocking eight strikes through the four and half rounds the fight took place.

I'd expect him to be re-energized and definitely stronger coming in, as the weight cut had a clear effect on his power, but until we see what he looks like on Saturday it's hard to judge where he'll be at.

Hathaway definitely has the skills to out-grapple Sanchez en route to a decision victory, but I think a resurgence in power along with the fact that he will want to rebound from the Penn loss edge my pick Sanchez's way.

PREDICTION: Sanchez via TKO in the third round


***SPIKE TV PRELIMINARY FIGHTS***


Amir Sadollah vs. Dong Hyun Kim (Welterweight)

Amir Sadollah has literally fought in the UFC for his entire career thus far, and he's so impressed that he continues to get bigger and bigger challenges.

Dong Hyun Kim is no joke, and is technically undefeated after his split decision loss to Karo Parisyan was over-turned into a no contest. A tough fight for anyone, Kim represents by far Sadollah's biggest test to date.

Sadollah is coming off of two very impressive decision victories of his own, most recently over Brad Blackburn in January. After battling illness and injury after winning season seven of the Ultimate Fighter, Sadollah is looking to show he's more than just comic relief, and I think he'll continue to do so in this one.

PREDICTION: Sadollah via unanimous decision

Efrain Escudero vs. Dan Lauzon (Lightweight)

Both fighters in this one are trying to get past some adversity; Escudero responding to his first career loss and Lauzon battling not only a loss in his last fight but turmoil in his fight camp.

The season eight winner of the Ultimate Fighter got caught in a nasty, arm-wrenching submission at the hands of Evan Dunham his last time out, but prior to that he had pulled out a highly impressive knockout of Cole Miller.

Lauzon lost his cornermen to an ultimatum, and with his brother Joe's rundown of the way Dan has been training, not only for this fight but pretty much his entire career, I don't like him to overcome these issues. Escudero's got a clear advantage against his former training partner here, and I don't see him losing this fight.

PREDICTION: Escudero via submission in the second round


***QUICK PRELIMINARY CARD PICKS***

•Melvin Guillard over Waylon Lowe via KO in the second

•Luiz Cane over Cyrille Diabate cia TKO in the third

•Aaron Riley over Joe Brammer via decision

•Ryan Jensen over Jesse Forbes via submission in the first