Penick's Take
STRIKEFORCE ON CBS PREVIEW: Penick's previews and predictions for Henderson vs. Shields event from Nashville
Apr 17, 2010 - 9:10:35 AM STRIKEFORCE ON CBS PREVIEW: Penick's previews and predictions for Henderson vs. Shields event from Nashville

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

Strikeforce returns to CBS tomorrow night with Strikeforce: Nashville, headlined by a Middleweight Title bout between Dan Henderson and Jake Shields. The card has lost a little steam this week as it has been overshadowed by the aftermath of UFC 112, but it still features three good to great Title fights on the CBS broadcast. The Melendez-Aoki fight for sure should be must-see television for any MMA fan, but let's take a look at what's on deck for the organization's second event on CBS:

Gegard Mousasi vs. Muhammed "King Mo" Lawal (Strikeforce Light Heavyweight Championship)

While this would almost appear to be a mismatch considering Lawal has fought six times to Mousasi's 31, Lawal brings a highly decorated amateur wrestling background and a wake of destruction in his path over his six fight career.

Mousasi is a Dutch-Armenian fighter with a Judo and Kickboxing background that brings a highly successful career into this Title defense tomorrow night. In his 28 wins, Mousasi has only gone to decision twice, and owns 17 wins by knockout and nine by submission. That's 28 wins to two losses, both of which came by armbar.

Mousasi is on a 15 fight win streak dating back to August of 2006, where he suffered one of those armbar losses to Akihiro Gono in the 2006 Pride Welterweight Grand Prix. He moved to middleweight and became the first DREAM Middleweight Champion in 2008, winning the DREAM Middleweight Grand Prix, knocking out Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza in the finals.

He then moved up in weight, where he's won two bouts at heavyweight in Japan while winning two light heavyweight bouts in Strikeforce.

"King Mo" is stepping into this fight against the first major challenge he's faced. Mousasi is by far the best fighter Lawal has faced in his career, but with no one else on his list of opponents even being close to Mousasi's level it's hard to gauge how this fight will go down.

This should be a highly competitive fight that can very well go into the late rounds, as Lawal's got the wrestling to hang and the power to give Mousasi some trouble if he connects. But Lawal's still got holes in his game, and Mousasi simply has a ton more experience coming into this one. In a fight that both fighters legitimately can win, I'll stick with the favorite and take the Champion to hold onto his Title.

PREDICTION: Mousasi via TKO in the third round.

Gilbert Melendez vs. Shinya Aoki (Strikeforce Lightweight Championship)

If Aoki pulls off the victory here, there will be a very big argument for calling him the number one lightweight in the world following B.J. Penn's UFC 112 loss, but this is an extremely difficult fight for him.

Gilbert Melendez is a very good wrestler with a good striking game, and in his 19 fight career he has avenged the only two losses on his record. Added to that is the fact that both of his losses came by way of decision.

Aoki has only lost four times in his career, but two of those came against Hayato "Mach" Sakurai at welterweight. His last loss in the lightweight division was almost two years ago to Joachim Hansen in the DREAM Lightweight Grand Prix final. His submission game is one of the best in MMA, and 14 of his 23 career wins have come by way of submission.

This fight comes down to whether or not Aoki can get Melendez to the ground and pull off a submission, because his striking is not at Melendez's level, and if he gets stuck on his feet for long in this fight, Melendez can and will knock him out.

I think Melendez's sprawl and wrestling ability allows him to keep this fight standing, and he'll defend well enough on the ground even if Aoki gets him there, so I think it'll be just a matter of time before he connects on a fight finishing combination. This should be a hell of a fight, however.

PREDICTION: Melendez via TKO in the second round.

Dan Henderson vs. Jake Shields (Strikeforce Middleweight Championship)

Jake Shields is riding a 13 fight win streak coming into his first Middleweight Title defense, but this is only his third fight in the weight division after his career has been spent at 170 lb. He holds victories over a large number of notable fighters, including Yushin Okami, Carlos Condit, Paul Daley, Robbie Lawler and many more in his 24 win career.

Dan Henderson was the final Pride Champion in both the 183 lb. weight class and 200 lb. weight class, and challenged for both the Middleweight and Light Heavyweight Championships upon entering the UFC. He's defeated a who's who of Pride greats in his 25 win career, and he left the UFC off a strong three fight win streak that ended with his most famous moment, the vicious knockout of Michael Bisping at UFC 100.

Shields is still improving in his stand up game, as it's his excellent jiu jitsu and underrated wrestling that has brought him this far in his career. And that's precisely the reason he's not being given much of a chance to win in this fight.

Henderson is a two time Olympic wrestler, and that Greco-Roman background should allow him to dictate the pace of this fight. He's not impervious to being taken down in this fight, but he's more than adept enough on the ground to avoid the submission attempts from Shields. Through a five round fight, Jake's just not going to be able to avoid the KO blow coming from the right hand of Henderson, and Hendo takes the first of what could eventually be multiple Titles in Strikeforce.

PREDICTION: Henderson via KO in the second round.

The action all comes to network television tomorrow night for Strikeforce/CBS Saturday Night Fights on CBS, and as always we'll have live round by round coverage of the event as it airs. So check back here tomorrow night for that live event report for Strikeforce: Nashville on CBS!