Penick's Take
UFC 112: INVINCIBLE PREVIEW: Penick's preliminary card previews and predictions for Abu Dhabi event
Apr 8, 2010 - 10:34:01 PM UFC 112: INVINCIBLE PREVIEW: Penick's preliminary card previews and predictions for Abu Dhabi event

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

The UFC hits up the United Arab Emirates on Saturday, as UFC 112: Invincible comes to Abu Dhabi's Yas Island, and the brand new, still finishing up construction Concert Arena. Headlined by two Title fights featuring two of the world's best fighters in B.J. Penn and Anderson Silva, the card should bring plenty of entertainment and a night of good fights for the crowd in Abu Dhabi. But before we get to the main card, there are six fights scheduled for the night's preliminary card:

Jon Madsen vs. Mostapha Al-Turk (Heavyweight)

In the least interesting fight on the card, The Ultimate Fighter season ten competitor Jon Madsen meets two time Octagon loser Mostapha Al-Turk. Al-Turk got struck by some bad luck in his fight last summer with Mirko Cro Cop, as a missed eye poke led to Cro-Cop finishing him off against the cage.

Madsen won his UFC debut by split decision over fellow TUF 10 competitor Justin Wren, but he's still only got three official fights to his credit.

This fight is easy to predict, as Madsen is fairly one-dimensional and Al-Turk is susceptible to his takedowns. Expect a lay and pray fest that doesn't make its way to the televised portion of the card.

PREDICTION: Madsen via Unanimous Decision

Paul Kelly vs. Matt Veach (Lightweight)

Both of these fighters are looking to bounce back from decisive losses in their last fights, with Kelly being finished by the spinning back kick to punches combo from Dennis Siver at UFC 105 and Veach getting choked out by Saturday's Lightweight Title challenger Frankie Edgar at the Ultimate Fighter 10 finale in December.

Kelly has three decision victories to his credit in the UFC, but his inability to finish in the Octagon is a major detriment to his chances in this fight.

Veach was caught by an overhand right by Edgar that set up the finishing sequence, but until that point he had been very competitive and earned a "Fight of the Night" bonus for his efforts. While he showed off some good takedowns and slams in that fight, he'll only need that as a last resort in this fight because he should be able to out-strike Kelly and hold off any takedown attempts from the Brit.

PREDICTION: Veach via TKO in the third round

DaMarques Johnson vs. Brad Blackburn (Welterweight)

Blackburn comes into this fight off a decision loss to the Ultimate Fighter season seven winner Amir Sadollah at UFC Fight Night 20 in January, and the bout was his third straight to go to the judges. He was on a six fight unbeaten streak before the Sadollah fight, including three straight wins to begin his UFC career.

DaMarques Johnson is coming off a huge triangle submission victory over Edgar Garcia at UFC 107 in December, a submission that came after he had been knocked to the canvas with a right from Garcia. It was a nice rebound after coming up short in the Ultimate Fighter's ninth season, losing to James Wilks in the final.

Both of these guys have a ton of talent and this is simply a really exciting match up that both fighters can legitimately win.

Blackburn has the advantage on the feet, though Johnson's shown some power in his striking throughout his career. Johnson as well should have the advantage with a slick submission game on the ground. That is definitely a result of his time with Jeremy Horn at Elite Performance in Utah.

This is a tough fight to call, as it's dependent on Johnson taking some punishment and finding a way to win if he's going to, while Blackburn needs to avoid making mistakes that can get him caught in a submission. It's nearly a tossup, but I like the slight underdog play in Johnson.

PREDICTION: Johnson via submission in the second round

Nick Osipczak vs. Rick Story (Welterweight)

Osipczak is officially an undefeated fighter with five stoppage victories to his credit, though he lost an exhibition tournament bout to DaMarques Johnson during the ninth season of the Ultimate Fighter. The Brit has a solid ground game and a good striking game as well, and is equally dangerous on the feet or on the ground.

Rick "The Horror" Story may have lost his UFC debut back at UFC 99 last June, but he's turned around with two excellent performances, including one of the more impressive submissions of 2009 with an arm triangle choke from the guard of Brian Foster.

Osipczak does have a decent jiu jitsu game, but Foster definitely has the advantage in that department. Osipczak's problem in this fight comes in the fact that Story's never been finished before, and while he has the advantage standing with a significant height and reach disparity between the two, this fight will be decided on the ground. Unfortunately for the TUF 9 alum, I don't believe that bodes well for his chances.

PREDICTION: Story via submission in the third round

Paul Taylor vs. John Gunderson (Lightweight)

Paul Taylor's UFC record isn't very good. There's no two ways to put it, at 3-4 he's kept himself around in the Octagon but hasn't found much success. That said, he almost never has a bad fight, and in fact in seven appearances in the UFC, three of them have earned "Fight of the Night" honors. This fight also marks his first fight at lightweight with all of his previous UFC appearances coming at 170 lbs.

John Gunderson made his UFC debut in January at UFC 108 in a losing effort against Rafaello Oliveira by decision. After a lengthy professional career that began in 2002, the former IFL fighter will be looking to avoid the dreaded 0-2 start and possible spot on the UFC's chopping block.

Gunderson's got a decent ground game with quite a few submissions to his credit, but Taylor is the better striker. Gunderson's not going to be able to grind out Taylor for three rounds, and the more time spent standing in this fight the more chance Taylor has to out-point Gunderson.

PREDICTION: Taylor via unanimous decision

Alexander Gustaffson vs. Phil Davis (Light Heavyweight)

Davis, a former NCAA D-1 National Wrestling Champion from Penn State, rode three straight first round victories into his UFC debut in February at UFC 109. Against Brian Stann, he showed off a lot of what has made him a talked about prospect, dominating all three rounds against Stann en route to a one sided decision victory. The only complaint coming out of that fight was that he didn't finish Stann, but all Stann was able to do in the fight was survive.

Gustaffson made quite a splash himself in his UFC debut, smashing Jared Hamman in :41 seconds at UFC 105 last November. Undefeated at 9-0 in his career, all but one of his victories have come by way of TKO or submission.

Davis is more than just a "lay and pray" artist, and his wrestling background only serves as a means to put his offense into effect. Again, while unable to finish Stann, the Lloyd Irvin BJJ blue belt was still putting on the punishment and intelligently looking for openings for submissions. He fought a slightly cautious but smart fight to get his first UFC win, and with only five fights under his belt thus far he's got nowhere to go but up.

Gustaffson may find some success in the UFC, and will likely provide his own fair share of highlight reel finishes in the Octagon later on in his career, but Davis is a -675 favorite for a reason. Gustaffson's never faced the type of ground attack that Davis will be bringing to him, and there's not a chance he's able to stop Davis' takedowns in this fight. It could be a long night of punishment or Davis could end this one quickly, but either way Gustaffson's in for a rough night and Davis moves to 6-0.

PREDICTION: Davis via TKO in the first round

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