Penick's Take
UFC FIGHT NIGHT 21 PREVIEW: Penick's main card previews and predictions for Florian vs. Gomi event on Spike TV
Mar 30, 2010 - 11:16:02 PM UFC FIGHT NIGHT 21 PREVIEW: Penick's main card previews and predictions for Florian vs. Gomi event on Spike TV

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

The UFC returns to North Carolina tomorrow night for another Fight Night event on Spike TV. The first Spike event since January 10th, Fight Night 21 features a lightweight main event between two time Lightweight Title challenger Kenny Florian and longtime Shooto and Pride veteran Takanori Gomi in Gomi's UFC debut. With a highly intriguing heavyweight bout between Roy Nelson and Stefan Struve in the co-main event, the televised card is quite packed with action. Here's what's on tap tomorrow night on Spike from the Bojangles Coliseum in Charlotte, N.C.:

Nate Quarry vs. Jorge Rivera (Middleweight)

Quarry is a long standing member of the UFC's middleweight division, and in his UFC tenure he's compiled a stellar 7-2 record, with his two losses coming to Rich Franklin in a Middleweight Title bout and Demian Maia by submission. He's riding a two fight win streak with a TKO over Jason MacDonald and a brutal "Fight of the Night" affair with Tim Credeur that he took by decision.

Rivera is on a 4-2 ride in this most recent run in the organization, including two straight victories in 2009. He's fought in the organization off and on since a debut victory over David Loiseau at UFC 44 back in 2003, and last year signed a new contract extension.

Quarry has some very good power in his striking, with seven of his 12 victories coming by way of TKO or knockout. Rivera as well has 11 of his 17 wins by TKO or knockout, so this is a fight primed to be contested on the feet.

This should be an good fight that provides a ton of excitement to open the broadcast and get the North Carolina crowd really into the event. It's likely going to end with one fighter battered and bruised, and with the two fighters involved I'd have to lean toward Quarry having the striking advantage in this one.

PREDICTION: Quarry via TKO in the round two

Ross Pearson vs. Dennis Siver (Lightweight)

The season nine lightweight Ultimate Fighter winner Pearson comes into his second appearance in the Octagon outside of the TUF tournament off a highly impressive victory over longtime veteran Aaron Riley at UFC 105 last November. Riley didn't have much of an answer for the varied offensive attack from Pearson throughout the fight, and doctor's stopped the fight in the second due to an accumulation of cuts and damage to Riley's face that they deemed too much for him to continue with.

Dennis Siver is on a roll of his own. After a disappointing 1-3 run in his first stint in the UFC, Siver picked up a win outside of the organization before returning and winning three straight fights in the Octagon by stoppage in 2009. Two of those came to very similar end with spinning back kicks setting up a finishing flurry of punches to force the ref to stop the fight. Both of those victories earned him "Knockout of the Night" honors.

While Pearson is certainly capable of standing up with Siver and having a toe-to-toe slugfest in this fight, his most success may come by taking the fight to the ground. Siver is susceptible to submissions, and in fact of his six losses four of them have ended that way. Pearson is a considerable favorite in this fight, and for good reason, but Siver is an experienced fighter and more than a live underdog.

This is another fight that should be highly exciting, and is a great piece of matchmaking between two very solid European fighters. As with the Quarry-Rivera fight, however, I'd lean toward the favorite in this one.

PREDICTION: Pearson via submission in round two

Roy Nelson vs. Stefan Struve (Heavyweight)

One of the more ingenious bits of matchmaking in Joe Silva's history in the UFC, this heavyweight fight pits the tall and skinny 6'11" submission specialist in Struve against the barely 6'0" and much wider Nelson. Nelson is, of course, the season ten winner of The Ultimate Fighter, a tournament he rolled through with relative ease, coming in as the favorite before the season started.

Struve has put together a 3-1 run in the UFC, including three straight after losing his debut to Junior Dos Santos in June of last year. Despite Nelson being 11 years older than him, Struve actually has more fights under his belt, though he hasn't fought the same level of competition for as long as Nelson.

There are two previous fights on Struve's recent resume that have me wary of how he'll perform in this fight. In his debut against Dos Santos, the much shorter striker was able to pin him against the cage and unload brutalizing punches that eventually took him out of his element and forced the ref to stop the fight. Then, in his last outing against Paul Buentello, another much shorter striker, he picked up a decision in a sloppy fight where he did not look very impressive.

Nelson's Ultimate Fighter winning fight against Brendan Schaub showcases his key to success in this bout, as he was able to get within the reach of the taller Schaub to land his knockout blow. He's got decisively underrated power in his hands, and if he can work his way inside Struve's reach and employ a similar gameplan as what Dos Santos pulled off, he's more than capable of knocking out the 22 year old.

PREDICTION: Nelson via TKO in round one

Kenny Florian vs. Takanori Gomi (Lightweight)

Takanori Gomi was once one of the best lightweight fighters in the world, and is one of the most experienced and longest tenured lightweights in the world with a record of 31-5 with one no contest. He is making his UFC debut in this fight after spending his entire career in Japanese organizations including Shooto, Pride and World Victory Road.

Kenny Florian is perhaps the best lightweight fighter in the world not named B.J. Penn, and he's trying to get himself back to a third crack at a Lightweight Title fight. Since losing his first shot to Sean Sherk in 2006, Florian has amassed a 7-1 record, the lone loss to Penn last August, ending five of those seven by submission.

While on paper Gomi is still a highly talented competitor and is coming to make a serious run to a Title shot and rematch of a 2003 fight with Penn, he's running into a fighter who has simply faced better competition over the last four years with much more success. There is no doubt coming into this fight that Florian is the better fighter, and it's a chance once again for him to pick up yet another impressive victory over a name opponent. In North Carolina on Wednesday night, he'll do just that.

PREDICTION: Florian via submission in the second round.

If the fight's all end by stoppage on the main card tomorrow night, some of the night's undercard could make the broadcast. Some of the standout bouts not guaranteed to air are Caol Uno vs. Gleison Tibau, Andre Winner vs. Rafaello Oliveira and Yushin Okami vs. Lucio Linhares. If time allows we may see one or more of these fights as the UFC gears up for the eleventh season of The Ultimate Fighter. As always check back here tomorrow night as we bring our live round by round coverage of all the fights as they air on Spike TV.

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