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UFC 104 comes to us this Saturday night on Spike TV and pay-per-view, and with a Title defense on tap in the main event and a solid, if unspectacular, undercard to compliment it this show should provide fans with plenty of action. With eleven fights on tap, let's get right on to the predictions!
Preliminary Card
Kyle Kingsbury vs. Razak Al-Hassan: This is a tough bout to judge in terms of what might happen, as not much has been seen from either fighter as far as what they've got to bring to the table. Kingsbury was defeated twice during the eighth season of The Ultimate Fighter, to eventual show winner Ryan Bader as well as to Krzsysztof Soszynski, and in non-exhibition competition has dropped two straight as well. The last time we saw Al-Hassan his arm had been bent 90 degrees in the wrong direction by Steve Cantwell. Al-Hassan coming off of a long layoff after that injury along with a Kingsbury in desperate need of a victory make me lean toward the former TUF contestant in this one. I'm looking for him to pick up the TKO victory in the second round.
Stefan Struve vs. Chase Gormley: Gormley was going to face Ben Rothwell back in August at Affliction's failed third event, and then was set for that same fight here before Shane Carwin was yanked from the night's co-main event to face Brock Lesnar next month. Now he's got a considerably less talented overall fighter to face in Struve, but one who is extremely dangerous in one area. Unfortunately for Gormley, I think his relative inexperience and his strengths will play against him in this one and he'll wind up trying to fight this one on the ground, where the 6'11" Struve will be only more than happy to oblige en route to snatching a limb or cutting off some oxygen. The babyfaced Dutchman takes this one as Struve's long limbs find their mark and he picks up a first round submission.
Jorge Rivera vs. Rob Kimmons: We've got a bit of a classic striker vs. grappler match up in this one, as the 37 year old Rivera will look to prove he's worth the recent contract extension he signed. He's got a hell of a tough task against Kimmons, who is coming off of a "Submission of the Night" victory from this past April and is 2-1 in his UFC career. The one loss was to the very skilled Dan Miller, and Kimmons is going to give Rivera fits in this one. I think Rivera is still a solid fighter, but he's going to find himself caught in something in the first round as Kimmons gets the fight to the ground and submits him in round one.
Yushin Okami vs. Chael Sonnen: Sonnen is going to be one of the toughest wrestlers that Okami has faced in his career, but I don't see Sonnen being able to control Okami throughout three rounds the way he did to Dan Miller. Okami's too strong and he's too big for Sonnen to dominate like that, and this is going to be Okami showing yet again that just about all he does is win fights. I see him controlling most of the action in the fight yet again to pick up another unanimous decision victory.
Spike TV Televised Card
Antoni Hardonk vs. Pat Barry: This is going to be one of the best examples of kickboxing in an MMA cage that we've seen in a long time, as neither fighter has much of a ground game of which to speak. The major difference between the two fighters into this one will be the height and reach advantage afforded to Hardonk, and that will end up being the difference in the fight as well. Barry's going to get a taste of his own medicine as both fighters will likely eat a ton of leg kicks, and they'll be able to compare their swollen shins and thighs once the bout's completed as battle scars from what should be an exciting fight. In the end, the 5 inch height advantage will come into play and Barry won't be able to overcome that, with Hardonk finally putting him away in the second round.
Ryan Bader vs. Eric Schafer: This one comes down to whether Schafer can put Bader on his back and work his very good top control game to upset the season eight winner of The Ultimate Fighter. Bader will look to improve upon a less than impressive victory over Carmello Marreiro earlier this year, and he's also hinted at wanting to be more exciting because it's what the UFC higher ups want to see from their fighters. I think we're going to see a good wrestling performance combined with a return to using his devastating right hand to finish off Schafer in the third round after a good fight.
Main Pay-Per-View Card
Anthony Johnson vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida: Anthony Johnson and Yoshiyuki Yoshida are both younger fighters looking to prove themselves in the UFC's stacked welterweight division. Johnson is a massive welterweight, who will reportedly be cutting up to 50 lbs. to get down to 170 in this fight. He's also a very hard hitting and exciting welterweight who will look to do to Yoshida what Josh Koscheck did last December. For Yoshida, I think he's simply going to be overmatched in this one, and Johnson will succeed in his efforts. Look for Johnson to add another highlight to his ever-growing reel with a first round TKO.
Joe Stevenson vs. Spencer Fisher: This should be an absolutely excellent lightweight bout. Stevenson got back to the win column against Nate Diaz in June after dropping consecutive bouts for the first time in a long time, and the former Lightweight Title challenger and season two winner of The Ultimate Fighter is now looking to continue on the winning path. Fisher edged out Caol Uno in a fight that a lot of people felt Uno won, but it was a very close affair that both had a right to claim as theirs. With that win he moved his winning streak to three and will look to pass one of the gatekeepers to the elite in Stevenson. With Stevenson's recent move to train with Greg Jackson's camp and a back to basics approach that he employed in his last outing this one's probably going the distance, but it should be an absolute blast to watch it get there. Stevenson picks up a unanimous decision here to stay in the win column.
Gleison Tibau vs. Josh Neer: Another lightweight contest here pits two fighters coming off of tough, but not dominating losses. Neer was outwrestled by a very game Kurt Pellegrino in August and Tibau dropped a split decision to Melvin Guillard. This is a very even fight, as each fighter has the tools to submit, knock out or decision the other, but I think the desperation of Josh Neer will give him the advantage by the end of the fight and I think Neer will manage a late third round submission to get back on track.
Cain Velasquez vs. Ben Rothwell: My pick for upset of the night is really not much of an upset at all. Ben Rothwell has been a bit overlooked coming into this bout, but the truth of the matter is he is a tough s.o.b. who can take punishment, dish it out and keep on coming. His loss to Andrei Arlovski aside, he's one of the most successful heavyweight fighters of the last half decade, and went undefeated in his time in the IFL. Cain Velasquez has the tools to someday be a Champion fighter, but he's still got weak points that need to be addressed. He's not going to be able to dominate Rothwell like he has some of his previous six opponents, and while Rothwell doesn't have the striking ability of Cheick Kongo it will still be better than any of the other fighters Velasquez has seen. That, combined with a much better takedown defense and ground game from Rothwell than Kongo's, and I see this fight as being Rothwell's to lose. A win by Velasquez sets him up beautifully in the heavyweight division, and it will put to rest many of the questions that still linger about the undefeated fighter, but I don't think that's going to happen on Saturday. I'm looking for the slight upset to come as Rothwell finds a way to put Velasquez out with a TKO in the second round.
Lyoto Machida vs. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua (UFC Light Heavyweight Championship bout): This main event contest for me comes down to two questions about the challenger: 1) Has his gas tank been built up to go late into the fight? and 2) will he be the one to figure out and overcome the timing of Lyoto Machida? For me, I believe the answer to both of those questions will be "no" come Saturday. After the fight with Mark Coleman in January and a short one with Chuck Liddell in April I don't fully believe that Shogun's gas tank will be where it needs to be to go late into the fight successfully. Furthermore, while I think Shogun will fare better than many of Machida's other opponents to date, and may even do what no other has done and win a round, maybe even two, in the early going of the fight. But he's not going to be able to sustain constant pressure or continued success striking with Machida or getting and keeping him to the ground. The Machida era will not end on Saturday night and the Champ will pick up a 4th round TKO to remain undefeated.
Now as always, these are simply my thoughts on the event and I've (clearly) been wrong in the past on many a fight. That's why they are predictions, but no matter what goes down I think we're in for another good event from the UFC to kickstart a great "end of fall, beginning of winter" series of MMA action. Make sure to join us here on Saturday for our live round-by-round updates on all of the action on Spike TV and pay-per-view for UFC 104, live from the Staples Center in Los Angeles, California!
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