Penick's Take
PENICK: Previews and Predictions for UFC 102 - Couture vs. Nogueira
Aug 25, 2009 - 1:48:41 PM PENICK: Previews and Predictions for UFC 102 - Couture vs. Nogueira

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UFC 102 comes to us live on pay-per-view this Saturday night from Portland, OR; and while the only true "name" fighters on the card are in the main event, there's plenty of action to be had both on the main and preliminary card of this one. With Randy Couture and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira out to show that retirement talk for either is preposterous, a fight that may determine a near future challenger in the middleweight division highlights this one. Before we get to that, however, we've got ourselves a six fight undercard to look at.

Preliminary Card Bouts

Marcus Aurelio vs. Evan Dunham: Aurelio is returning to the UFC after two fights out of the organization and almost a year away. He's a tough fighter to predict, because when he's good he's spectacular, but when his game is off he loses decisions. He's never been stopped, and Dunham won't become the first to do so. While Dunham has been impressive in stopping seven of his eight career fights, and winning a decision in the other, the first notch in the 'L' column may be on the horizon as Aurelio should be able to take him down early and submit him late in the first round.

Nick Catone vs. Mark Munoz: Mark Munoz is making the drop to the middleweight division for the first time after suffering a devastating knockout loss via head kick to Matt Hamill at UFC 96. The two time All American D-1 wrestler from Oklahoma State University had amassed a 5-0 record up to that fight, and was brought in from the WEC when they folded their higher weight classes. Catone has an impressive D-1 wrestling pedigree himself, having amassed over 100 wins in college at Rider University. He is also coming off of the first loss of his career, a submission at the hands of Tim Credeur. If Munoz makes the cut without any issues and comes into this fight having shaken off the effects of the March knockout, he'll prove far too much for Catone. Catone will be able to stave off the assault for the first round, but come the second look for Munoz to put him on his back and pound him out for the TKO.

Tim Hague vs. Todd Duffee: Tim Hague, the Canadian former kindergarten teacher, takes on the debuting 23 year old American Top Team prospect Todd Duffee in a very intriguing undercard bout. Hague picked up a win over Pat Barry in his UFC debut earlier this year, but that wasn't before taking an absolute beating. Duffee has decimated the four opponents he's faced thus far in his career, and the UFC likely will have him in their future plans should he come out looking good in this fight. While Hague had a large size difference between himself and Barry in his first UFC fight, he won't have that luxury against the 6'3", 260 lb. Duffee. Look for this one to end violently, with Hague unable to recover from the punishment he receives this go around. Early second round TKO for the debuting Duffee.

Justin McCully vs. Mike Russow: We've got more heavyweight action on tap on this card, with Justin McCully taking on another debuting fighter in Mike Russow. Russow comes into his UFC debut on a seven fight win streak. He's 11-1 overall with one no contest, the one loss coming to Sergei Kharitonov in his one appearance in Pride. He's stopped all but one of his fights by submission or KO, and that spells bad news for McCully. McCully thus far in his career has gotten by on a good top game on the ground, but his four career losses have all come by way of submission. He won't be able to hold Russow down for long in this one, and even with the fight there he'll be hard pressed to avoid getting submitted. Look for just that to happen as Russow makes a splash with a first round submission.

Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Chris Tuchscherer: The third of our debuting heavyweight fighters on this preliminary card is Chris Tuchscherer. He's a 17-1 fighter whose sole loss came in the third of three fights in one night at the infamous Yamma event to Travis Wiuff. He gets a chance to make his mark against a tough fighter to debut against in Gabriel Gonzaga. After a 2007 that saw him KO Mirko Cro Cop and get a shot at the UFC Heavyweight Title, Gonzaga's been on the downward slope of his UFC career. He's going to be looking to bounce back from a knockout loss to Shane Carwin in March at UFC 96, but Tuchscherer's no pushover in this fight. Training with UFC Heavyweight Champion Brock Lesnar, Tuchscherer is a two time All American in Division II wrestling that will bring a heavy punch along with his wrestling. While Gonzaga will have the clear advantage on the ground with his superior jiu jitsu, this is my pick for the upset of the night, with Tuchscherer landing enough blows to rock Gonzaga midway through the fight en route to a TKO in the second.

Ed Herman vs. Aaron Simpson: Aaron Simpson comes into his second UFC bout with a 5-0 record, all by TKO or knockout. Ed Herman's never been knocked out in his career. The story of this fight will be whether or not Simpson can last for a three round battle with Herman, because it's an unlikely scenario that he finishes the iron-chinned fighter in this bout. If Herman can get this fight to the ground, he should be able to wear Simpson out with a solid ground and pound game. Simpson's a tough guy and will keep himself in this fight, but the scorecards will all be looking in favor of Herman at the end of this one, as he takes a unanimous decision.

Main Pay-Per-View Card Bouts

Brandon Vera vs. Krzysztof Soszynski: Brandon Vera is fighting in the Octagon for the tenth time on Saturday night when he takes on Krzysztof Soszynski. He was originally set to face Matt Hamill before the popular Ultimate Fighter 3 vet pulled out with an injury. As he's only 2-3 in his last five fights, with a few highly sub-par fights in that stretch, he's in need of a good showing against Soszynski on Saturday. There's reason to believe he'll have just that, however, after returning to form against Mike Patt in March in his third fight at light heavyweight. He's a level above Soszynski in his all around game, but Soszynski's been on a very good run since his time on the Ultimate Fighter. After an inconsistent career before going on the show he's now amassed three straight wins inside the Octagon. He's becoming increasingly more impressive each time out, and will be looking to make a bigger statement against Vera. This should be a close fight, and a good test for both, but it should be Vera coming out on top with a decision victory.

Chris Leben vs. Jake Rosholt: Jake Rosholt comes into his second fight in the UFC against a Chris Leben looking to redeem himself in the eyes of many after serving a suspension from a positive steroid test. This fight boils down to whether Rosholt will be able to get Leben to the ground and keep him there for three rounds, as that may be the only way he wins this one. The problem for him will be getting past the bombs thrown by Leben to get in for a takedown. Leben's been around the block enough times to find his spot at some point in this fight and Rosholt won't be able to withstand the power in this one. Leben takes a second round TKO victory.

Demian Maia vs. Nate Marquardt: This is such a fantastic clash of styles, with Demian Maia's ground wizardry being pitted against the stand up excellence and creativity that Marquardt has shown recently to compliment his very good overall game. It's essentially an elimination bout in the middleweight division right now as far as Title contention goes, as the winner either gets to square off against Dan Henderson or await the winner of a Hendo-Anderson Silva rematch. Maia has awed UFC fans everywhere through his first five fights in the Octagon, winning all of them by submission with four "Submission of the Night" awards to boot. Eight of his ten career wins have come by way of submission, and it's no wonder why. Not only are his submission skills second to none, he finds ways to get people to the ground no matter what they try to do. He's never faced someone as dangerous standing up as Nate Marquardt, however. The former multi-time King of Pancrase Champion has become an even better fighter over the last two years since losing his first UFC Title shot against Silva. Throwing out a loss to Thales Leites do to deducted points, Marquardt has been vicious, choking out Jeremy Horn before destroying Martin Kampmann and taking out Wilson Gouveia. His dangerous hands and top game if the fight goes to the ground may be just the thing to neutralize Maia in this fight. We've seen Maia in a back and forth bout with Jason MacDonald, and Marquardt's going to be a much tougher and well rounded foe. Look for Marquardt to take one more step towards a possible rematch with Anderson Silva when he hands Demian Maia a TKO loss in the third round.

Keith Jardine vs. Thiago Silva: Both Jardine and Silva are coming off of losses, though Silva's was of the devastating fashion with a last second knockout to Lyoto Machida in January. Jardine held his own for three rounds in March with Quinton "Rampage" Jackson but ultimately lost a decision due to a final flurry from the former Light Heavyweight Champion. Jardine's an inconsistent fighter who can hang with the best, and on occasion beat them, but then turn around and get knocked out by Houston Alexander and destroyed by Wanderlei Silva. Thiago is either going to show himself capable of that level of devastation, or he's going to be outpointed on the way to a losing decision. This one is extremely tough to call, but for the safe bet look for Jardine to employ a smart gameplan to gain the decision victory.

Randy Couture [artist Cory Gould (c) MMATorch]

Main Event - Randy Couture vs. Antonio Rodrigo "Minotauro" Nogueira: The main event is a fight that could give answers to a lot of questions lingering around these two iconic competitors. Does Couture still have it in him at 46? Has Nogueira suffered too much damage over his career to continue competing at the highest level? Was the Mir fight a fluke? We'll find out Saturday night. Couture has taken time off to film a movie this year and returns to the Octagon for the fourth time after coming back from retirement two and a half years ago. Coming off the loss to Brock Lesnar last November, this will remarkably mark only the third fight in the UFC for Couture that is not a Title fight. For Nogueira, coming off the first stoppage loss of his career to Frank Mir in December, he's out to show why he was the favorite in that fight. This is a bout many expected to see to unify the UFC Heavyweight and Interim Heavyweight Championship belts, but fate put them together in defeat. Couture's got the wrestling and the stand up game to get the job done in this fight. Nogueira can never be counted out and could find a way to slap on a submission at some point in this fight, but I see Couture as the favorite for a reason here. His striking is deceptively good, and his clinch game is his bread and butter. If it goes to the ground he can find ways to avoid the submission attempts from Nogueira. All in all, this is Couture's fight to lose. If he employs a smart strategy and can keep the fight on the feet for most of it, he'll take this one home. Couture takes the decision in the main event to look toward either one more fight with Lesnar or a drop down for some other fights at 205.

So that's what we've got coming on Saturday from Portland. As always be sure to check in here for our live round-by-round coverage of the event as it airs on pay-per-view, and get your picks into our Predictions and Betting contests as soon as that launches this week!