Penick's Take
PENICK: Previews and Predictions for UFC 101: Declaration
Aug 4, 2009 - 7:15:51 PM PENICK: Previews and Predictions for UFC 101: Declaration

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UFC 101 is just days away and the crowd in Philadelphia is in for a treat. The UFC Lightweight Title is on the line in the main event and UFC Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva faces off against original Ultimate Fighter and former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Forrest Griffin as the night's co-main event. With plenty of fights primed for a finish on this card it's sure to make up for what could be a perceived lack of star power outside of the top two fights. So with that in mind, let's take a look at what's on tap!

Preliminary Card Bouts

Jesse Lennox vs. Danillo Villefort: With a combined record of 19-3, these two WEC imports make their UFC debut at the Wachovia Center on Saturday night. The key thing to look at here is the fact that in 22 fights between the two of them, only one has gone to a decision. Both fighters are coming off of victories in January at WEC 38, and in what should be a wild start to the evening I'll take Lennox with a late first round TKO to splash onto the scene. (For the record, I wouldn't be surprised if it's the same finish with the opposite victor.)

George Sotiropolous vs. George Roop: Sotiropolous makes his return after a long layoff, and in fact he is dropping down to 155 after fighting thus far in the Octagon as a welterweight. He has won both of his fights in the UFC since his time on the Ultimate Fighter. Roop has split decisions in two fights thus far in the UFC since his stint on the reality show's eighth season, both of which themselves were split decisions. Roop has the height advantage by a few inches in this one, but he's taking this fight on short notice and Sotiropolous is poised for a successful return to action. Sotiropolous with a submission in the first round.

Matt Riddle vs. Dan Cramer: In a bout between two young guns with a grand total of three fights between them it's hard to judge just what we're going to see. Both have shown some skills in their limited professional careers thus far, but right now the edge has to go to Riddle. Look for him to take a hard fought decision.

Shane Nelson vs. Aaron Riley: Their first bout ended with a premature stoppage, and had everyone but Shane Nelson incensed. He'll want to finish this like he though he did in March but Riley will be out to prove that the first bout was a fluke. Riley takes this one with some extra aggression and a second round TKO.

Thales Leites vs. Alessio Sakara: Sakara's a sacrificial lamb in this bout. After Leites was embarrassed by Anderson Silva in April he's been punished by getting tossed to the under card of this event, but it's a fight he has no business losing. Unlike the Silva fight, he'll be able to take Sakara to the ground and keep him there to finish this one with a quick submission. First round.

Tamdan McCrory vs. John Howard: McCrory recently discussed how he was now beginning to grow into his 6'4" frame and may be looking at a move to middleweight in the future. Howard made a successful debut against Chris Wilson in January at UFC 94 but will come into this fight seven inches shorter than his foe. McCrory has only lost twice in his career, both to submissions impressive enough to garner "Submission of the Night" honors for their respective events. He's been in the cage with some very good competition and will look to continue his climb up the ladder. His size and ability on the ground should allow him to fluster Howard en route to a second round submission.

Main Pay-Per-View Card Bouts

Josh Neer vs. Kurt Pellegrino: This is just an excellent fight to start off the pay-per-view portion of the card. Neer has found a resurgence in his third stint with the company, and while he's sitting at 2-1 in his latest tour, that sole loss was a split decision against Nate Diaz in the "Fight of the Night" at Fight Night 15 last September. Pellegrino has likewise found success in the Octagon, with only two losses as a lightweight, to Joe Stevenson and Nate Diaz. Both fighters come into this one fully capable of submitting or knocking out the other, and it makes for what should be one hell of a back and forth affair. I think we could see Neer winning this one, using his larger frame and size to dominate for some time in the ground game, before Pellegrino makes a comeback and slaps on a third round submission from the bottom.

Kendall Grove vs. Ricardo Almeida: This fight's going to come down to how well Grove can defend on the ground. Despite his much taller frame and much longer reach, he's likely going to find himself on the ground in this fight against simply a superior Brazilian Jiu Jitsu fighter. While he's no slouch on the ground himself, Almeida is on another level. Almeida's not yet had a breakout performance since returning from a four year retirement in February of 2008, and here's where he needs to turn it on. Grove will be game in this fight, as he'll need to be to keep himself on the upswing after nearly being on the chopping block last year, but I don't think he'll have enough for Almeida in this one. Second round submission for Ricardo.

Amir Sadollah vs. Johny Hendricks: This fight is clearly only on the main card because it's Amir Sadollah's first fight since winning the Ultimate Fighter's seventh season last summer. Unfortunately for him, I think it simply means a much larger audience is going to see him on the wrong end of another fighter's breakout. Johny Hendricks has turned his exceptional collegiate wrestling pedigree into success in MMA, which is not always a guarantee in this day and age of the game. He comes into this UFC debut with a 5-0 record and will look to completely frustrate Sadollah and finish him off with a second round TKO.

Forrest Griffin vs. Anderson Silva: Forrest Griffin can win this fight. It's not impossible, he's shown time and time again he's capable of pulling incredible performances out when he's the underdog in a fight. That's most certainly the situation he finds himself in here, as it would have to be believed that nine times out of ten Silva wins this match up. There is still that 1/10 performance that could come out on Saturday night, but I can't see it happening. He'll make this a fight though. He'll be smart in the first round and get some shots in on Silva, something that most mortal men can only hope to do. What this will do, however, is wake up the beast in Silva much like Forrest needs a few shots to smack himself into fight mode. Silva will be too much for Forrest once he connects on a couple of punches, and he'll go for the kill on a dazed and confused Griffin late in the second round. TKO for the Middleweight Champ before he moves down to face Dan Henderson for a second time.

B.J. Penn vs. Kenny Florian (UFC Lightweight Championship): The long wait for Kenny Florian for his second shot at the Lightweight Championship comes to an end on Saturday, and B.J. Penn returns to the division where many believe him to be the absolute best. Both men look to be coming into this fight in peak condition and at the top of their games, and the result is likely to be one of the best lightweight fights we've seen inside the Octagon. While B.J. Penn is the Champion and has impeccable skill, a lot of people overlook what Kenny Florian brings to this dance. A BJJ black belt himself since 2003, Florian has also brought a stellar Muay Thai game to his MMA mix. What we've got here now is two of the most skilled 155 lb. fighters squaring off on the UFC's big stage for five rounds, and this fight will may bring us to "classic" territory. Penn is out to rebound from his loss to GSP in January, and he's looking to shut up those that continually question his gas tank should the fight go to the Championship rounds as well as where he is mentally coming into the fight. Florian is out to show that he's on the same level as B.J., and he's looking to claim the Title he was unable to attain the first time around in the fight that was the catalyst to his current six fight win streak. In a fight I see going into the fifth round, I'm going to steal Matt Pelkey's take that Florian will shock the world with a late submission to become the new UFC Lightweight Champion. Yes you read that right. This will be a clash of epic proportions, and it will hopefully lead to more fights between these two, who should be considered the best lightweights fighting right now.

The fights come down on Saturday, and as always we'll have live round by round coverage of the event as it airs on pay-per-view. Then check back here and on the VIP site for more fallout coverage from the event including text roundtables and daily audio updates!