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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief We are now less than a week away from UFC 100, and the build up for this historic card could not be better. With 99 numbered events now in the past, as well as a multitude of Fight Night cards and others staged by the UFC, this gigantic card has been absolutely loaded with big names and exciting fights. Capping off the night will be the rematch between Frank Mir and Brock Lesnar, though this time they will have Championship gold on the line. But before we can get to that fight we've got ten others coming to us live from the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, NV.
Let's get to the fights!
Preliminary Card
Matt Grice vs. Shannon Gugerty: The opening bout of the night is between two guys who will be pretty much fighting for a spot on the UFC roster, as both of them are coming off losses in the heavily packed lightweight division. Shannon Gugerty has been out of action since a triangle choke loss to Spencer Fisher last October. Grice most recently lost to Matt Veach in February. Both are very talented lightweight who have plenty of time left in their careers to improve and move up the ranks, but one of them may very well find themselves on the outs here. Grice was very close to finishing off Veach in their bout, and many thought the fight was stopped early when Veach knocked him down. Gugerty is most certainly going to want to get this fight to the ground, his problem is going to be in keeping it there against the talented wrestler in Grice. While Grice hasn't finished anyone in the Octagon, his one win in three tries was via split decision, he showed himself to be a capable striker against Veach and with the big spotlight on him and a chance to get visibility on the broadcast with a quick finish look for him to go all out against Gugerty. His striking will be the difference and Grice will take the TKO late in the first round.
C.B. Dollaway vs. Tom Lawlor: The next fight on the undercard pits two alumni of the Ultimate Fighter. With Dollaway, he's shown in his last two fights a good submission game as well as the ability to end fights with his hands. He lost twice to Amir Sadollah, in almost identical fashion both times, coming up short of an "Ultimate Fighter" contract. Tom Lawlor's claim to fame has nothing to do with what he's shown fighting, but instead what he did on his time in the Ultimate Fighter house. On top of the infamous "fruit platter" incident, Lawlor was also the one who knocked out a drunken Dave Kaplan, at Kaplan's request, during one of the episodes. He was successful against Kyle Kingsbury at the Ultimate Fighter 8 finale in December, but he's now dropping down to middleweight and will face a very talented fighter in Dollaway. Lawlor's certainly got KO power in his hands, but if the fight gets to the ground he's going to be outclassed against Dollaway. I'm taking Dollaway with a first round submission.
Dong Hyun Kim vs. T.J. Grant: Dong Hyun Kim and T.J. Grant is a fight with a very interesting mesh in styles. Grant comes in with a very good Muay Thai game and a fast paced style that will be in stark contrast to Kim's more calculating, not to mention slower paced, judo game. Kim technically lost his last bout to Karo Parisyan but a post fight drug test failure for undisclosed painkillers cost Parisyan the victory on the books as it was turned to a "no contest." Before that, he defeated Matt Brown in a fight many believed he had lost. Grant came in on short notice at UFC 97 to make his debut in his home country in Canada, and picked up very big split decision win against Ryo Chonan. This is a chance for the 25 year old submission specialist to really make a splash in the UFC and I'll take Grant with the second round submission.
Mac Danzig vs. Jim Miller: Mac Danzig needs to win this fight, that's just as simple as it gets. A disappointing 1-2 in the Octagon following his win on The Ultimate Fighter season six, Mac Danzig is in danger of being the first TUF winner to be on his way out of the UFC. Jim Miller presents a major obstacle for Danzig to accomplish what he needs to in this fight, as he is an extremely talented ground fighter that may be on the level or even perhaps slightly above that of Danzig. Danzig's going to need to work his striking and try to keep the fight standing by grinding out a stalemate on the ground. This is a fight Jim Miller can win, but Mac Danzig has more to lose and I think he'll come to fight with that mindset, picking up the unanimous decision.
Jon Jones vs. Jake O'Brien: Jon Jones is just the first in what will be an influx of next generation MMA stars to emerge in the UFC. At 21 years old he won his first eight fights in less than one year, with less than a year and a half of full MMA training. Winning both of his fights thus far in the UFC, he was most impressive against Stephan Bonnar in January, making use of his very prominent grappling skills in an unorthodox way. Jake O'Brien has been up and down in the UFC, most recently picking up a victory in his last bout, his first drop to light heavyweight, after two straight losses at heavyweight in 2008. This is a fight between two very talented wrestlers, and the key here will be whether or not Jones is a better wrestler than O'Brien or vice versa. If they negate each other, Jones is a highly unorthodox striker who will be able to score points with shots that O'Brien may not see coming, and Jones will simply be the better man in that spot. O'Brien's key to victory will be to score takedowns on Jones and work some ground and pound, I'm just not seeing him having success there. I think Jon Jones comes out with another unanimous decision victory in the Octagon in another great performance.
Stephan Bonnar vs. Mark Coleman: The Hall of Famer returns to action here against Stephan Bonnar, who finds himself in the position of needing a win, desperately. Mark Coleman gave a hell of an effort against Mauricio "Shogun" Rua in January despite being severely gassed, but ultimately he would succumb to Rua's punches at the end of the fight. Stephan Bonnar had no answer for Jon "Bones" Jones in their January bout either, and his year+ long layoff ended in defeat. This is a fight that Bonnar needs, and it's a fight that could send Coleman heading to retirement for good. Coleman's never had a good gas tank, and Bonnar will be ready to go toe to toe for all three rounds. If Bonnar can withstand some early takedowns, or at least those attempted, he'll be primed to finish a gassed Coleman late. He'll do just that with a third round TKO.
Main Pay-Per-View Card
Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Alan Belcher: "Sexyama" brings his star personality to Octagon for the first time on Saturday against the aptly named "Talent" Alan Belcher. This is a bout where Akiyama is the favorite, and very much for a reason, but there's enough question about whether he's the same fighter as in the past along with how Belcher looked against Denis Kang that it's not unfeasible for Belcher to pick up the upset. Akiyama's last two fights have seen him come out victorious, though not in his once more spectacular fashion. The seeming decline started with a kick to the face from Kazuo Misaki, but he comes into this bout at UFC 100 a rejuvenated man looking to show the fans in the U.S. and around the world why he was one of Japan's biggest drawing fighters. While Belcher has looked much better in recent bouts, especially against Kang, he's been up and down enough in his career that it's hard to peg where he'll be coming into this bout. In what should be an exciting opener, I'm taking Akiyama with a first round TKO to announce himself to the rest of world's MMA fans.
Jon Fitch vs. Paulo Thiago: Jon Fitch has more heart in his pinky finger than most have in their entire being. He proved that with one of the gutsiest "survival" performances against GSP at UFC 87. He was very close to losing that fight on numerous occasions, but he kept coming forward to the closing bell. Paulo Thiago is a mystery right now. A very talented ground fighter out of Brazil, he gave Josh Koscheck a flash KO from an uppercut in his UFC debut and will look to make an even bigger impression against Fitch. This is Jon Fitch's fight to lose. He's very much in the top three welterweights, with his one loss in ten UFC fights coming at the hands of GSP. He holds a victory over Thiago Alves as well. He should be a step above Thiago in every category, but it's hard to know just what this Brazilian can bring to the big stage. We simply haven't seen enough of him against really top flight competition, and he was getting beat by Koscheck before landing that uppercut. I don't see Fitch having too much trouble with him here, and he'll take home a second round TKO victory to elevate his profile on this big stage.
Michael Bisping vs. Dan Henderson: This bout was made infinitely more interesting due to this season of the Ultimate Fighter. By pegging Bisping in a certain light with the editing of the show, they set up two very distinct factions: those that already love Bisping supporting his comments and actions even further and liking him more because of it; and those that already didn't like him or were indifferent now wanting to see him get smashed by the cool, calm and collected Dan Henderson. Hendo's had a bit of a rough go since returning to the UFC after the collapsing of PRIDE, having two title fights against Quinton "Rampage" Jackson and Anderson Silva to start out, but he's now returning to his winning ways. Both guys have seen their fair share of close decisions going their way throughout their careers, and will both come in with a solid chance for taking this fight. It's been stated in the weeks leading up to this show that Bisping's camp believes he'll out-wrestle Henderson in this bout, which is up there for the "Preposterous Statement of the Year" award, but he's not going to be entirely outclassed in this fight either. At 39, Henderson's nearing the tail end of his career, and this may be his last shot at getting his name back into the title picture. For Bisping, a win brings with it a showdown with Anderson Silva, likely in the U.K., in what would be by far the biggest MMA bout in the history of the United Kingdom. For Bisping to win this fight, he'll need to out-point Henderson enough of the time to take a decision, because despite his assertions to the contrary, I can't see him knocking out Hendo. Henderson may be able to cut Bisping off and out-wrestle him to the decision himself, but Bisping will be as motivated as he's ever been, and at 18-1 is not getting enough respect for his abilities coming into this fight. This could be a very, very good back and forth bout, and it's one in which I see Bisping taking with a unanimous decision to give us another major event to look forward to in November.
Georges St. Pierre vs. Thiago Alves (UFC Welterweight Championship: This is the toughest bout to call on this entire card, and perhaps one of the toughest on paper fights to call of the year. Georges St. Pierre is a new monster ever since that loss to Matt Serra in 2007. That loss was the learning experience that turned St. Pierre into a new fighter, becoming stronger, faster, smarter and just simply better than everyone else at 170 lbs. Thiago Alves is an absolute beast of a fighter who would be a great middleweight were he a bit taller. At 5'9", he's got one of the largest frames in the 170 lb. division, cutting upwards of 30 lbs. at times to make the weight limit. He's got the knockout power and the speed with which to give GSP trouble, but he's also going to be up against GSP. Georges St. Pierre is simply a different animal than any other fighter in the world. His combination of speed, kickboxing, takedown ability, wrestling ability, etc. has developed into the prototype for what the next generation of MMA fighter is going to look like. Added to that has been an amazing ability to strategize with his trainers for a specific opponent and breakdown exactly what needs to be done to pull out a win. Going against a guy who very well may be bigger than him come fight night, as well as a guy who may possess more power than him, will lead to GSP taking this fight to the ground early and often if need be. I'd expect this bout to look a lot like the B.J. Penn fight, without the total domination. GSP would be smart to not stand on a dime with Alves, as that's the only way he will lose this fight is by giving Alves the chance to hit him. If he comes in and takes that away from him in this fight he'll be able to dictate how the fight plays out and that will lead to a third straight successful title defense and his spot placed firmly near the top or at the top of many "Pound for Pound" fighters lists. This win won't come easy for GSP, but he's overall just too good and in the prime of his Championship career for even a fighter the caliber of Thiago Alves to stop him. GSP via 4th round TKO.
Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir (UFC Undisputed Heavyweight Championship): This main event rematch between Brock Lesnar and Frank MIr is such a different fight from just over a year ago when the two first met. Frank Mir has reinvented himself, looking as in shape as he had ever been against Antonio Nogueira in December and sounding more prepared for what Lesnar brings than in the first fight. Lesnar, on the other hand, looks to be a completely different kind of beast than in that first fight himself.
Mir's striking coach Ken Hahn made a comment last week in an interview to the effect of, "how much could Lesnar have actually improved in six months?" If that's honestly the way they're thinking about Lesnar and his overall game they're going to be in for a rude awakening on Saturday.
Lesnar has shown a remarkable aptitude toward picking up different aspects of the game to round out his skills and compliment his massive size and strength advantage. His bout with Heath Herring showed he could have the patience and the mind to be smart against another guy who could very well do some damage to him. While he didn't go for the kill in that bout, he did everything he needed to not lost and to get the much needed first win in the Octagon. Against Randy Couture, he again showed marked improvement from the Herring fight, standing and landing shots as well as recovering from those thrown by Randy. He's now reportedly been extensively training the submission defense game in preparation for this bout with Mir.
Expect this fight to look similar in ways to the first fight. What I mean by that is Mir is going to be hit, and hard, early and often. Lesnar doesn't need to get this fight to the ground and try to immediately finish like he did in the first bout. Mir may be bringing a more "technical" striking game against Lesnar, but Lesnar will be pressing the action in a way Nogueira didn't come close to doing. That aggressiveness, tempered by a newfound patiendce, coupled with the speed and power package that Lesnar already brings will be the difference and he'll succeed where he failed in their first bout, getting the TKO of Mir in the first round to cap off a great and historical night.
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Jamie Penick, editor-in-chief
(mmatorcheditor@gmail.com)
STAFF COLUMNISTS: Shawn Ennis - Jason Amadi
Frank Hyden - Rich Hansen
Chris Park - Matt Pelkey
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