Penick's Take
UFC 190 PREVIEW: Penick's main card quick thoughts and fight picks for "Rousey vs. Correia" event
Jul 31, 2015 - 8:35:02 PM UFC 190 PREVIEW: Penick's main card quick thoughts and fight picks for "Rousey vs. Correia" event

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

Saturday's UFC 190 event features a mix of certainty, nostalgia, and complete anonymity, an odd seven-fight main card on pay-per-view that's as diverse as it is lacking.

Ronda Rousey is set to defend her title in a foreign country, though one which has seemingly already embraced her on a wide level and is ready to cheer her as the star over the home grown challenger Bethe Correia. Several fighters whose time has long since passed will try to keep their careers alive a fight longer, two other women will be trying to stake their claim as the top contender for the UFC's Strawweight Championship, and four more unknowns will try to capture a distinction that means less and less each year.

With that setup, here's what's coming on Saturday's main card:

Ronda Rousey vs. Bethe Correia (Women's Bantamweight Championship): There are just too many superlatives applicable to Rousey, and they've been used ad nauseam into this matchup. Rousey's a massive, massive betting favorite, and with good reason. She's finished her last two fights in a combined 30 seconds, only one fighter has ever made it out of the first round against her, and Correia's never faced anything close to the level of competition Rousey represents.

It's that last key that's especially damning for Correia, who takes such a massive leap up in competition from Shayna Baszler that it's impossible to take her seriously as a threat to Rousey. She's shown some solid striking skills, but nothing like one-punch knockout power. Though Correia's never lost, she hasn't been tearing up those she's faced to this point, and her overall game doesn't necessarily inspire great admiration and confidence into what she can do in this fight.

If Correia somehow found a way to win - and I'm in the camp who doesn't see any viable path to victory for her short of catching Rousey with the most perfect strike ever thrown - it would be perhaps the biggest upset in the history of the UFC.

Instead, despite Rousey claiming she's planning to take her time on this one, Correia's going to get put away like all the others. Rousey by submission in the first.


Mauricio "Shogun" Rua vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (Light Heavyweight): We're a long, long way away from these two putting on the best fight of 2005, and though there's some nostalgia at play with that first fight from Pride, both of these longtime veterans are a long way from their prime.

Shogun certainly still has his power, and nearly took out Dan Henderson two fights ago before things turned around on him. However, it's far too early to call Nogueira's chin shot because he got knocked out by Anthony Johnson. Nogueira's injury layoffs are a concern, obviously, but it's impossible to trust Shogun's chin and mental acumen with brutal losses in four of his last five fights.

If Rua can finish Nogueira early, he may prove to have a little more life left in his run. I just have a hard time seeing that happening. If he gets cracked against Nogueira like he did in his last two fights, he'll be as finished as he was in each of those fights. Nogueira by TKO in the second round.


Stefan Struve vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (Heavyweight): Nogueira's had a rough recent fight history, but seems determined to put together a resurgent run like some of his contemporaries. If it doesn't happen here, it's not happening at all.

Struve's not an easy out necessarily, but despite his young age he's put a ton of miles on his body in this sport, and has taken a ton of damage in stoppage losses over the years. That includes a KO loss to Alistair Overeem in his first fight back after his heart condition sidelined him a year and a half, and he's another fighter in which it's hard to place any confidence.

Of course, Nogueira himself has been out well over a year, and looked awful in a brutal loss to Roy Nelson last April. He may look better in front of a home country crowd, but he too has taken so much damage it becomes a bit uncomfortable to watch him fight. All things considered, Struve's been awful at utilizing his reach over the years, and given their respective chins, I'd trust Nogueira's more at this point. Nogueira by TKO in the first round.


Antonio "Bigfoot" Silva vs. Soa Palelei (Heavyweight): Bigfoot really seems shot as a fighter without being able to utilize TRT. He was, of all the cases in this sport, one who had the most legitimate case for using the therapy given his condition, and without it he's looked slow and lethargic while getting stopped twice in the first round.

Palelei is far from a star athlete, but he hits hard and has a solid submission game. Outside of getting ground out by Jared Rosholt to a decision loss, Palelei has stopped 12 of 13 opponents, and I see no reason to believe that stops here. Bigfoot's chin isn't there, his speed and gas tank are non-existent, and even a diminished Palelei should be able to prove that. Palelei via TKO in the first round.


Claudia Gadelha vs. Carla Esparza (Women's Strawweight): Now this is an excellent fight. Aguilar finally makes her UFC debut, and brings a majorly well rounded skill set into the Octagon with her. She's not particularly great at any one thing, but she's very good at dictating pace, utilizing her clinch, scoring on the feet, and gaining position on the ground. Again, none of it is dominant, but the combination makes her a nightmare stylistically for most.

That was a bit of a problem for Gadelha in her last fight, which saw her drop a split decision to current Champ Joanna Jedrzejczyk, as she failed to dictate the pace and just wasn't quite able to do enough anywhere to convincingly be given two rounds.

Of the two fighters, I think Gadelha's got a more adaptable and potentially dangerous game, and the bigger upside of the two. The question is whether she's in a spot to be better than Aguilar right now. That's a tough task, and winning this fight is going to be difficult. Still, with her own combination of striking and grappling, Gadelha's got enough in her to make this an extremely competitive fight, and I think she pulls it off. Gadelha by decision.


Glaico Franca vs. Fernando Bruno ("TUF: Brazil 4" Lightweight Final) and Reginaldo Vieira vs. Dileno Lopes ("TUF: Brazil 4" Bantamweight Finals): These two fights are on the main card most likely because it's airing on Globo in Brazil, and that's where this season of the show aired over the last few months. I'm not going to pretend to know much about any of these four fighters; they're nothing more than filler on this card, and it's hard to imagine either making a massive impact given the history of the show, especially as it continues to get into later seasons. We'll go Franca by TKO in the second round and Lopes by TKO in the first round.