Penick's Take
UFC FIGHT NIGHT 61 PREVIEW: Penick's main card quick thoughts and fight picks for "Mir vs. Bigfoot" event
Feb 22, 2015 - 11:45:48 AM UFC FIGHT NIGHT 61 PREVIEW: Penick's main card quick thoughts and fight picks for "Mir vs. Bigfoot" event

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

The UFC comes to Fox Sports 1 tonight from Porto Alegre, Brazil, bringing a six fight main card to the network. There isn't much in the way of standout action, though the co-main event between Edson Barboza and Michael Johnson is a sneaky good fight for the lightweight division. Here's some quick thoughts and predictions for the main card fights:


Frank Mir vs. Bigfoot Silva (Heavyweight): Mir is coming into this fight as the underdog given he's lost four straight and hasn't fought in a year, but Silva looked terrible in his last fight himself, so this one's more of a toss-up for me. Both fighters have been talking about their ground games a bit into the matchup, but it'd be a bit surprising if either tried to make it a real submission battle here. Mir has enough power to hurt Silva if he can avoid return fire himself - because at this point his chin is not much of an asset - but I don't know how much speed he'll have since he's back up near the top end of the heavyweight limit. There is every possibility that this fight is an ugly one, either on the feet, in the clinch, or on the ground, and it's a fight both have the capability of winning. That said, Bigfoot off TRT looked awful against Andrei Arlovski last September, and if he isn't any better here, he'll let Mir get back in the win column. Mir by TKO in the second round.


Edson Barboza vs. Michael Johnson (Lightweight): This fight's gone under the radar with everything that's been going on in the last couple of months, but it's a really excellent lightweight fight between a couple of borderline top ten guys. Barboza has gotten some rightful criticism at times because of his cardio and a past inability to effectively deal with wrestlers, but he turned that idea on its head a bit against Bobby Green in a complete three round performance. Johnson looked solid throughout his current three fight winning streak from August of 2013 through March of last year, but his near year-long absence from the cage could be detrimental to him here. Barboza's kicks remain deadly for his opponents, and he'll try to impose his will in the striking game here. Johnson is going to test whether or not Barboza's marked improvement in takedown defense against Green was an aberration. It's an intriguing matchup that should propel the winner to a potential top five opponent, and I'm not entirely sure how this one plays out. If Johnson can utilize his wrestling edge to make this more of a grueling affair, he can find some advantages in top position. However, if he tries to play striker, or can't take Barboza down and is forced into that role, he's at a significant disadvantage against the Brazilian. I think it'll be a competitive fight, and I'm very interested to see just what each of them can manage against the other. Barboza via decision.


Cezar Ferreira vs. Sam Alvey (Middleweight): Sam Alvey's last win sits in his record book as a knockout victory, but the assist goes to his opponent Dylan Andrews for doing the work himself as he knocked himself out trying to throw Alvey to the ground. Still, a win's a win, and Alvey's going to try to build some momentum from there. Ferreira, the first winner of "The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil", has done fairly well in his UFC run so far, winning four of his five fights. However, he hasn't been overly impressive in those wins, while his loss was a knockout against C.B. Dollaway in just 39 seconds. Ferreira's got the grappling game to make this one a grinding affair, and if Alvey allows him to do that he's going to lose at least two rounds in a decision. However, Alvey does have power enough in his hands to finish this if he can catch Ferreira. That said, this seems like a fight Ferreira should control unless he too knocks himself out trying to bring Alvey to the ground. Ferreira by decision


Rustam Khabilov vs. Adriano Martins (Lightweight): This, along with Barboza-Johnson, is one of the two best fights on this card. Khabilov is getting back into the cage for the first time since his submission loss to Benson Henderson last June, a loss which snapped a six-fight winning streak. Martins, meanwhile, is coming off an exciting first round knockout over Juan Puig last July, which bounced him back from a head kick KO against Donald Cerrone. Martins has heavy hands and a solid submission game, and though he's been quite uneven throughout his career he's got the skill set to best Khabilov. That said, dealing with Khabilov's relentless takedown game is a difficult prospect, especially if you're not elite with your takedown defense, as was Henderson last year. Khabilov's going to try to wear Martins out in this one with his takedowns, and it very well could work. Martins won't make it easy, but that's why it should be fairly competitive. Khabilov by decision.


Iuri Alcantara vs. Frankie Saenz (Bantamweight): Alcantara's shown promise in the bantamweight division, but he's starting to get up there in age as an active competitor. This is one of those fights where he needs to make a statement to show he can move up and try to make a run at the title, because if it doesn't start now, it might never happen for him. Saenz is the same age here into this matchup, but he's got less miles on his body in MMA with significantly less fight experience. Saenz looked decent in his win over Nolan Ticman in a successful UFC debut, and he is riding a five-fight winning streak. Still, Alcantara is quite the step up in competition, and I think the Brazilian's got enough in the tank to make this fight his. Another likely competitive fight on this card, but I think it goes Alcantara's way. Alcantara by decision.


Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Sean Strickland (Welterweight): Strickland's making his welterweight debut after running up 15 wins in 15 career fights at middleweight. Ponzinibbio, meanwhile, picked up his first UFC win last September, bouncing back from a loss in his debut the previous November which snapped a seven-fight winning streak. Both are typical finishers, with 18 (T)KO and ten submission finishes between them, and this fight is likely to provide some excitement to kick the main card off. At this point, the 23-year-old Strickland hasn't yet been beaten in his career, and while Pozinibbio's got a pretty good game himself, I think the younger fighter may make the better impression here. Strickland via TKO in the second round.