Penick's Take
TUF 20 FINALE PREVIEW: Penick's main card quick thoughts and fight picks
Dec 12, 2014 - 3:00:56 PM TUF 20 FINALE PREVIEW: Penick's main card quick thoughts and fight picks

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

The first ever UFC Women's Strawweight Championship will be awarded tonight at The Ultimate Fighter 20 Finale, with five other fights supporting it on the main card. Here are some quick thoughts and predictions on what's coming tonight to Fox Sports 1.

Carla Esparza vs. Rose Namajunas (Women's Strawweight Championship): The fight everyone's been expecting over the past several weeks of TUF 20 is coming to fruition, and Carla Esparza gets the opportunity to keep the top spot she held coming into the TUF house. Namajunas has been incredible this season, with her submission win over the unbeaten Joanne Calderwood standing out as perhaps the single most impressive moment of a very good in-cage season of the show.

Into this title fight, there are some variables to take into consideration. Namajunas has only had three prior professional fights, and she's never been in a five round fight. Esparza has only been in one five round fight herself, but she defeated Bec Rawlings in that bout to capture the Invicta Title.

Esparza's wrestling game over a five round fight seems like quite the hurdle to Namajunas, despite the 22-year-old's clear submission skills. Namajunas could be able to catch Esparza in something, and given her win over Calderwood I absolutely believe it's something she's capable of doing. I just don't know if she'll pull it off in this one. Esparza's top game is very good, and she's the more polished striker as well. I think this one's going to be close, and both are going to have their moments, but I think Esparza wins a majority of the fight to keep herself on top. Esparza by decision.


Jeremy Stephens vs. Charles Oliveira (Featherweight): Oliveira's problems making weight in his last two fights (one of which was then canceled) are disconcerting. He's extremely talented, and his submission win over Hatsu Hioki in June was tremendous, but if he had a bad cut this week and isn't as effective as he's been in the past, Stephens is a good fighter who is hard to stop.

Oliveira's submission game is his best attribute, but Stephens really doesn't leave himself open to getting submitted. At least, he hasn't in the last five years. It's possible for Oliveira to simply be better on the ground here, but Stephens can keep himself standing more often than not. It would be a signature win for Oliveira if he can pull it off, but I think he could very well get out-worked in this fight. Stephens by decision.


K.J. Noons vs. Daron Cruickshank (Lightweight): In his last bout in April, Noons picked up his first stoppage win in nearly four years. Cruickshank has yet to be stopped by strikes. Though Noons has a very solid boxing game, Cruickshank is a more dynamic striker, with more violent tendencies with his kicking game as well. This is one that could go a little back and forth, but I think Cruickshank is the better fighter in 2014. Cruickshank by TKO in the second round.


Joe Proctor vs. Yancy Medeiros (Lightweight): Medeiros had a rough start to his UFC run, but he looked great bouncing back in his last outing when he submitted Damon Jackson with a crazy looking reverse bulldog choke. Proctor has won three of four fights in the UFC, stopping two opponents. The latest came in July, where he took out Justin Salas. These two got into a heated staredown at the weigh-ins, and this one's probably going to be a highly entertaining and violent affair while it lasts. Both are equally capable of stopping the other, and it's a bit of a tossup here. I think Medeiros may be the better fighter, just slightly, but I'll give him the edge here. Medeiros via KO in the second round.


Jessica Penne vs. Randa Markos (Women's Strawweight): Penne, the former Invicta Women's Atomweight Champ, got beat by Esparza in the semifinals in a hard fought matchup, while Markos' surprising run through the tournament came to an end against Namajunas. Penne's just the more well-rounded fighter, and Markos isn't nearly the striker/grappler combo that Esparza is, and while her upset over Tecia Torres was impressive, I'm just not seeing her winning this one. Penne by submission in the second round.