Penick's Take
UFC 181 PREVIEW: Penick's main card breakdown and fight picks for "Hendricks vs. Lawler II" event
Dec 5, 2014 - 5:45:36 PM UFC 181 PREVIEW: Penick's main card breakdown and fight picks for "Hendricks vs. Lawler II" event

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

UFC 181 is the final pay-per-view of a rough 2014 schedule on that end for the UFC, but with two fantastic title fights on top, it has a chance to be the best show of the year. Let's get to Saturday's main card, with some picks for the top fights of the night.

Johny Hendricks vs. Robbie Lawler (Welterweight Championship)

How much did the injury affect Hendricks in the first fight? Is Lawler able to capitalize where he let up the first time around? These are the two key questions into the rematch here on Saturday night.

Hendricks didn't utilize his wrestling all that much in the first matchup, deciding to strike with Lawler for the majority of the fight. It was a strategy that didn't work well in the middle frames of the fight, as Lawler began landing some major strikes that had Hendricks hurting more than he had in any previous fight. Of course, he also managed to fire back with strikes that hurt Lawler in turn.

By the fifth round, it was all even, but a lethargic Lawler allowed the already injured Hendricks to take control, and could only shake his head in frustration as he remained grounded for much of the frame.

That was as much a mental issue as it was a conditioning issue for Lawler, and he's looked much better in his last two fights on both of those fronts. He's done that while Hendricks has spent the rest of the year rehabbing, and both seem poised to enter at their best on Saturday night.

If Lawler is going to win, he has to hit Hendricks early and often, while simultaneously avoiding the increased frequency of takedown attempts to be expected. He also has to capitalize where he wasn't able to in the first fight, and continue landing strikes if he gets Hendricks hurt.

For Hendricks to win more convincingly this time around, those takedowns have to be more effective, he needs to avoid the big strikes from Lawler, and has to deliver punishment on the ground as well.

This is going to be another competitive fight between these two. Lawler is surely going to come out strong in the first couple of rounds, more than he did in the first fight, but I think Hendricks will start to wear him down before the midway point this time. If Hendricks is fully healthy and and can execute what would be a smarter game plan, Lawler will tire out, and Hendricks will get chances to finish the fight late. I think it's more likely he simply wins enough rounds, but a late stoppage wouldn't entirely surprise me. With that said, don't be entirely surprised if Lawler hurts Hendricks at some point in the first few rounds and finds a way to finish this time around.

PREDICTION: Hendricks via decision


Anthony Pettis vs. Gilbert Melendez (Lightweight Championship)

Gilbert Melendez is a very good fighter. Let's get that established at the outset. He's got fantastic ground and pound on guys he can keep there, and he's accurate in his striking with good head movement to avoid a ton of damage from his opponents.

However, his finishing ability hasn't really been there for a long time. He scores a lot of points, and he's quite active, but aggressive, fast strikers have been able to score on him and win some rounds without getting stopped.

Anthony Pettis, at his best - and it's entirely feasible we haven't seen that yet - is one of the most dynamic strikers in the history of this sport. He's got seriously creative instincts, and finds angles a lot of fighters don't even realize are available to them. He's also got massive power in his kicks, and he knows when and where to target spots with them to do maximum damage.

Add into that several years of working with Ben Askren at Roufusport, not to mention what we've already seen him pull off on the ground, and he's as dangerous grappling as he is on the feet.

This is the reality of any challenger trying to take the title from Pettis right now. If you think you can strike with him, you're going to have to be confident in your ability to absorb strikes, because you're getting hit. If you think taking him down is the key to victory, you better have great defense on top, or he's going to find something there.

This fight just brings tons of realistic options for the Champion to retain, and seemingly just one for the challenger. He has to edge out three rounds, while surviving 25 minutes against the always dangerous Champion.

While Melendez is likely to beat or be competitive with almost everyone in this division, when Pettis says he's the best at 155 lbs. right now, it's because that's the simply truth. I think he proves it again on Saturday.

PREDICTION: Pettis via TKO in the second round


Travis Browne vs. Brendan Schaub (Heavyweight)

Schaub got out-pointed barely in a terrible fight against Andrei Arlovski in his last fight. Questionable decision or not, he certainly didn't do anything to win that fight. Browne got beat by a better fighter in his last fight who now sits as the Interim Champ.

Browne's the harder hitting fighter, he's not all that vulnerable on the ground, and he's got finishing instincts when spots open to him. This is just not a good stylistic matchup for Schaub, and I don't see his path to victory.

PREDICTION: Browne via TKO in the first round


Todd Duffee vs. Anthony Hamilton (Heavyweight)

Hamilton picked up his first UFC win in his last outing, defeating Ruan Potts in a terrible fight when Potts ultimately stopped fighting back. That came after a terrible first round performance, and a loss to Oleksiy Oliynyk in his UFC debut.

Duffee's returning for the first time in almost two years, having been sidelined by a rare but painful nerve issue. He's recovered, and hopes to pick up where he left off in his return to the UFC at UFC 155. This is a softball matchup to him, and he should take care of this one.

PREDICTION: Duffee via TKO in the first round


Tony Ferguson vs. Abel Trujillo (Lightweight)

Trujillo is a violent man capable of stopping most he steps in the cage with. He's returning for the first time since February, where he knocked out Jamie Varner after nearly getting knocked out himself.

Ferguson, the winner of The Ultimate Fighter 13, has been very good in his last three fights since returning from a 17-month layoff last October. He's got a very good striking game, with slick submission skills to boot. While it's ill-advised to get into a firefight with Trujillo, Ferguson's got the ability to mix things up well.

I think Ferguson manages to avoid the blitzkrieg from Trujillo, and he snatches a submission after rocking him sometime in the first half of the fight.

PREDICTION: Ferguson via submission in the first round