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Penick's Take
PENICK: Previews and predictions for Strikeforce on Showtime: Lawler vs. Shields
Jun 4, 2009 - 4:55:09 PM
PENICK: Previews and predictions for Strikeforce on Showtime: Lawler vs. Shields
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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief
Strikeforce comes to us with their second major event on Showtime this Saturday as former EliteXC Champions square off in the main event. The catchweight bout between Robbie Lawler and Jake Shields is sure to provide plenty of fireworks and exciting action, and Strikeforce has also put together what should surely be an enjoyable televised card of fighting action. So with some catchweight action, a grudge match and an intriguing heavyweight bout there's plenty to look at.

Kevin Randleman vs. Mike Whitehead: Kevin Randleman is coming into this bout with Strikeforce on the tail end of a long and rocky career. This will only be his third fight since 2006, as health issues and other circumstances had taken a toll on the former UFC Heavyweight Champion. He was victorious in his last bout in May of 2008, but he hasn't had a significant victory since knocking out Mirko Cro Cop in 2004. Mike Whitehead, on the other hand, has done almost nothing except win fights since his stint on the second season of the Ultimate Fighter in 2005 and the loss to Keith Jardine that ended his Octagon tenure. Before losing to Renato "Babalu" Sobral on the inaurgural Affliction card, Whitehead had won twelve straight fights. He's a tough fighter with a good wrestling base, good sumbission skills and a good chin, and he should prove to be an extremely difficult test for Randleman. If this was Randleman four or five years ago he quite possibly would be a major favorite in this one, however, this is Kevin Randleman in 2009 who hasn't fought since May of 2008 and has only had two fights in the last two and a half years. Whitehead should be able to take advantage of a tired Randleman later in the fight en route to a submission victory. Second round submission for Whitehead.

Phil Baroni vs. Joe Riggs: This one's been heating up with both fighters hurling trash talk towards each other as the fight nears. Riggs is still upset he got passed over by Jake Shields in favor of Shields' bout with Lawler on this card and doesn't feel like Baroni's in his league. Well Baroni feels he's a different fighter at 170 lbs. and wants to beat that point into the face of Joe Riggs. This is going to be a fun brawl while it lasts and should provide a path to the next step for both fighters. Baroni's 13-10 record isn't anything special, but he's still got a lot of power in his punches and moreso now at welterweight. His strength and power are going to be what he needs to utilize to win a tough bout. Riggs is over forty fights into his professional career at the age of 26, and it has certainly taken a toll on him physically and mentally in that time. The last few years have been marred by a recurring back injury and a problem with painkillers that forced him to pull out of a bout. He's looking to get back on track and this one should be a back and forth fight on the feet. If Riggs is allowing himself to overlook Baroni because of his belief that Baroni's not on his level then he'll be brought back to Earth quickly. This is going to be a much more even fight than he's thinking it will be but if Riggs is in shape and ready for a fight he'll take a unanimous decision.

Andrei Arlovski vs. Brett Rogers: Brett Rogers has been made out to be a dominating striker as a heavyweight in his time with EliteXC and Strikeforce. He's a perfect 9-0 with all wins coming by way of his hands forcing a stoppage, including one submission from his strikes. He's a bright prospect as a heavyweight but he's getting thrown into the deep end like a 4 year old without floaties against Andrei Arlovski. The former UFC Heavyweight Champion gave the best heavyweight in the world all he could handle for three minutes in January before "The Last Emperor" unloaded a perfectly timed right hand as Arlovski went for an ill-advised flying knee. His boxing and stand up skills are going to be much more advanced than anything Rogers has faced to this point, and in all honesty it's a fight Arlovski has to win. I think he knows that coming into this one, and he should be looking to push Rogers to the limit early. Rogers is becoming a more and more refined striker with each fight, but he's not on Arlosvksi's level yet and it's going to show with a likely brutal beating at the hands of the Belarussian "Pitbull." First round tko by Arlovski.

Scott Smith vs. Nick Diaz: Talk about a crowd pleasing match up. Even if this fight doesn't mean anything really in the long run, it's one of those fights that is almost a guarantee to be exciting the moment the names are put to paper. Scott Smith came back from the brink of defeat yet again on the first Strikeforce on Showtime event to defeat Benji Radach, and has shown time and time again a propensity for putting in good to great performances win or lose. His two fights with Robbie Lawler in EliteXC almost were enough to give that company legs to stand on, but it wasn't to be. Now, he'll seemingly have a job with whatever fight company wants an exciting fighter. Nick Diaz picked apart Frank Shamrock in his last bout, and here's another fighter that has a crowd pleasing style. His striking skills are deceptively good and while he may have been shown up a bit by K.J. Noons in their bout he's still much better than he showed that night. Smith has one punch knockout power, and you can't count him out at any point of a fight because he can seemingly rise from the dead, but Diaz should be able to do what he needs to do in this one to pick up yet another win and raise his stock further. Look for another fast paced strikefest with Diaz on the giving end of a third round tko.

Robbie Lawler vs. Jake Shields: This is a fairly easy fight to break down. If it's contested on the feet Lawler's got the significant edge, if it's on the ground it's Shields by a mile. The deciding factor in this fight will be whether or not Jake Shields will be able to bring Lawler to the ground and then whether or not he'll be able to finish it there. Robbie Lawler very well may be the best middleweight not in the UFC. His striking is as good if not better than it ever was, and he's gotten much smarter since his time in the UFC came to an end in 2004. He's 8-1 with one no contest since that time, with seven of those wins coming by way of ko or tko. His one blemish was a late third round submission loss to Jason "Mayhem" Miller in September of 2006. He's unbeaten since then. Shields is phenomenal on the ground. He's won eleven straight fights dating back to 2004, and recently has seen much of his success come in the submission game. His striking is the weak area in his game, but it has not stopped him from finding ways to win thus far. The problem he has coming into this fight is the size disparity and the natural strength of Robbie Lawler that he'll need to deal with. If he can get this fight to the ground early, or if he can survive long enough to do so late, then he needs to find a way to finish it there. He needs to find a way to catch Lawler in a submission to pick up this victory. Unfortunately for him, Lawler should be too strong to be kept down in this fight. He should be able to neutralize that aspect with size and strength and keep it on the feet where he should be able to pick Shields apart with speed, precision and power. Lawler should take this one with a second round tko but Shields should be able to hold his head high even in defeat as he'll show a lot of heart and ability just by taking this fight against the larger and stronger Lawler.

So that's on tap Saturday night, ladies and gentlemen. Tune in on Showtime and on your computers right here at MMATorch.com for a live round by round breakdown of each of these televised fights. It's the start of an awesome June for MMA action, and the first in a two part live event weekend. Stay tuned for previews and predictions for Sunday's WEC: Faber vs. Brown II event coming your way here as well on MMATorch.com!


DON'T GO YET... WE SUGGEST THESE MMATORCH ARTICLES, TOO!
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Penick's 2015 MMA Awards: "KO of the Year" - Holly Holm's head kick over Ronda Rousey at UFC 193

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