Penick's Take
UFC 178 PREVIEW: Penick's main card breakdown and fight picks for "Johnson vs. Cariaso" event
Sep 26, 2014 - 8:20:59 PM UFC 178 PREVIEW: Penick's main card breakdown and fight picks for "Johnson vs. Cariaso" event

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

UFC 178 lost its marquee main event, but it comes to pay-per-view tomorrow night with one of the strongest undercards the UFC has featured in quite some time. Indeed, the main event is essentially inconsequential tomorrow night, while the second and third fights from the top could be two of the hotter fights the rest of this year. Let's break this down.


Demetrious "Mighty Mouse" Johnson vs. Chris Cariaso (Flyweight Championship)

Cariaso has stopped one fight under the Zuffa banner, while he's been submitted on two separate occasions. He's not an easy out, and has been at least mostly competitive in both the bantamweight and flyweight divisions. However, even in his victories, he's been less than inspired.

Mighty Mouse, meanwhile, has improved greatly as Champion, becoming a fighter infinitely more dangerous than he was on his path to a title fight.

Through five wins in title fights, he's gone from edging past Joseph Benavidez to taking over against John Dodson after a rough start, to submitting the aforementioned Moraga, to knocking out Benavidez in a rematch, and then dominating Ali Bagautinov in a one-sided affair. He's as dangerous now on his feet as he is on the ground, and I'll be completely shocked if we get anything but a one-sided victory from the Champion.

PREDICTION: Johnson via submission in the third round


Donald Cerrone vs. Eddie Alvarez (Lightweight)

It's incredible that this fight is actually a reality for tomorrow night. Alvarez's last two fights were each "Fight of the Year" candidates, and though he's not getting five rounds with which to work here, this promises to be another thrilling fight.

Cerrone and Alvarez are kind of sneakily similar to one another, as far as their skills are concerned. Both have very good ground games, with a lot of submission ability, but also have developed their striking games to be extremely dangerous as well. Cerrone's got the better chin of the two, though he got destroyed by body shots against Champ Anthony Pettis. Alvarez has some chin issues, but he's got insane recovery ability.

Both are very slick in their transitions as well. Once they've got someone hurt, they have a killer instinct that just isn't there for everyone in this sport.

It's just a really good matchup on every level, because both fighters have so many different ways to win this fight. Ultimately, while I don't necessarily think a stoppage is coming, it's going to be fantastic to watch for as long as it lasts.

PREDICTION: Alvarez via decision


Conor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier (Featherweight)

There's so much heat on this fight right now, and the swell of fan reaction to McGregor continues to build. This is his opportunity to prove that the hype is there for a reason.

For Poirier, this fight is about proving that McGregor's not on that level, and to show that he is the one among the elite in the division.

Poirier's had a few cardio issues, and has been clipped a few times in his career, but he's been mostly excellent in his UFC run thus far. McGregor's shown nothing but potential, but hasn't faced the level of competition that Poirier has thus far in his career.

As we get into the weekend, this is becoming a bit of a coin-flip, "what are you feeling" pick, and given the way both have been approaching it, I can see Poirier getting himself into trouble. Will that happen? We'll find out, but let's see if this hype train continues.

PREDICTION: McGregor via TKO in the second


Tim Kennedy vs. Yoel Romero (Middleweight)

This is a real dangerous stylistic matchup for Kennedy, because it's an opponent he's absolutely not going to out-wrestle. Romero's credentials in that area are well documented, and he's bringing violence in his striking as well.

Kennedy's a very good grappler who is used to being able to control opponents, and he's got a solid striking game which is getting better.

Romero's issues are cardio-related, and if he fails to finish Kennedy earlier, he could find himself in trouble in the second and third rounds. That's what Kennedy needs to bank on, is being able to impose his will to wear Romero down. I absolutely think Romero can stop Kennedy, but if he fails to do so, it could get rougher for him down the stretch. If he fades as he has in some recent fights, this won't be his night. That said, he just completely controlled Brad Tavares for three rounds, and could do something similar here.

PREDICTION: Romero via decision


Cat Zingano vs. Amanda Nunes (Women's Bantamweight)

With the year and a half out of action, and the fact that she was getting beat for two rounds before her comeback over Miesha Tate, Zingano could get in trouble here. Nunes is very good with her ground and pound, and if she puts Zingano on her back, she absolutely can stop her there.

That said, Zingano's very good at stopping opponents, with eight finishes in nine career wins, and Nunes has been stopped before. Zingano has power on her feet and submissions on the ground, so if Nunes can't control her and deliver the punishment she's delivered to others, she'll wind up on the wrong end of things.

PREDICTION: Zingano via TKO in the second round