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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief We are just two days away from UFC 98 in Las Vegas, NV, with the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship on the line in the night's main event. After a string of injuries have ravaged the card and last minute replacements have been secured over the last week, here's hoping the following predictions aren't obsolete by tomorrow! With a very solid main card and some good match-ups on the undercard, the UFC is hoping for a better event than last month's UFC 97. They're likely to get it here, as all of the fights scheduled have the potential, albeit in different amounts, to be exciting fights. We start with the undercard:
Under Card Thoughts and Predictions
-George Roop vs. Dave Kaplan: We've got multiple members of season eight of the Ultimate Fighter on Saturday's card, and we start with a battle between two of them. "Diamond" Dave Kaplan has been submitted in his last two bouts, most recently by Junie Browning last December at the Ultimate Finale for TUF 8. George Roop battled through a hand injury while on the show before being dispatched by show favorite Phillipe Nover, and then lost a split decision to Shane Nelson at the finale in December himself. In a bout with jobs on the line for both fighters, expect Roop's experience and submission ability to come out in this one. Roop via submission in round two.
-Andre Gusmao vs. Krzysztof Soszynski: Gusmao hasn't fought since UFC 87 last August where he dropped a unanimous decision to the debuting Jon Jones. Jones frustrated Gusmao with his unorthodox style throughout the fight en route to the win, and Gusmao's perfect record left Minneapolis with a blemish. A former IFL standout, Gusmao faces a tough test in Soszynski. Krzysztof himslef is an IFL veteran, as well another cast member from TUF 8, is in quick turnaround mode after submitting Brian Stann by kimura at last month's UFC 97 event. He's replacing Houston Alexander in this fight. His run of three straight victories by kimura is on the line on Saturday night, and this should be a solid fight. We haven't seen enough of what Gusmao can do yet in the UFC, so it's tough to judge how he'll do in this fight, but he hits hard and he'll need to avoid the ground to win this fight. I don't think that'll happen, however, and Soszynski will notch another submission victory. Second round kimura, Krzysztof Soszynski.
-Phillipe Nover vs. Kyle Bradley: Phillipe Nover was compared favorably to both GSP and Anderson Silva during his stint on the Ultimate Fighter. The hype and praise didn't translate into a victory, however, as he was outwrestled by Efrain Escudero in the finale and lost a unanimous decision. Bradley has fought twice in the UFC, both times getting stopped by tko. He hasn't exactly faced easy competition, though, as those two losses came at the hands of Chris Lytle and Joe Lauzon. Only one of his fights have gone to a decision, and before getting to the UFC, Bradley had been on a seven fight win streak. Now, Nover doesn't have the power of the aforementioned Lytle or Lauzon, but he should be able to utilize his jiu jitsu more than he was against the much better wrestler in Escudero. Expect fireworks out of this one, and while I'm not confident calling it for either man at this point, both have something to prove and I think we see more of what Nover showed while on the Ultimate Fighter and not what he brought at the finale. Nover via second round submission.
-Tim Hague vs. Patrick Barry: Pat Barry introduced himself to the UFC in spectacular fashion, nearly crippling Dan Evensen with a vicious series of leg kicks that forced Evensen to bow out half way through the first round. A former kick boxer, Barry is a perfect 4-0 since transitioning to MMA last year. Tim Hague is making his UFC debut in this fight. A Canadian veteran of King of the Cage, Hague sports an impressive 9-1 record coming into his debut. His one loss was a split decision and he's stopped seven of his fights by tko or submission. Barry will be at a significant size disadvantage, as the diminutive heavyweight will be giving up 5 inches in height and about 35-40 lbs come fight time. That said, he's got the vicious leg kicks and a lot of power for his size and this should be a slugfest. However, I think this fight may be Hague's to take in the upset. Hague via tko in the second round.
-Yoshiyuki Yoshida vs. Brandon Wolff: Both Yoshida and Wolff are coming off of the wrong end of a vicious beating on December's "Fight for the Troops" event, and both will be looking to get on the right side of that line here. Before getting knocked out by Josh Koscheck, Yoshida had rattled off 9 straight wins (although one was a dq victory against Dan Hardy due to a low blow). Wolff was brutalized by the knees of Ben Saunders last December in his UFC debut, and he'll need an impressive performance against Yoshida to stick around with the organization. I don't see him having that success in this fight, however, and Yoshida will get back on track with a tko in the second round.
-Brock Larson vs. Chris Wilson: Brock Larson is a product of the Minnesota Martial Arts Academy and sports a 25-2 record coming into this fight. Those two losses were to two highly ranked welterweights, Jon Fitch and the last WEC Welterweight Champion Carlos Condit. He was set to get a rematch for Condit's belt before the WEC folded that division and the two made their next appearances inside the Octagon in April. Chris Wilson has a 1-2 record in the UFC with all three fights going to the judges scorecards. He's also coming into this fight after being the victim of a home invasion just last week at his home in Brazil. Larson is an extremely accomplished submission specialist, with 17 of his 25 wins being submissions, and unfortunately for Wilson in this fight he's going to be too much. Larson takes this with first round submission to be the first to stop Wilson in the Octagon.
Pay-Per-View Main Card Thoughts and Predictions
-Drew McFedries vs. Xavier Foupa-Pokam: McFedries comes into this fight with two consecutive losses and three losses in his last four fights. He's in must win mode against Foupa-Pokam, who made his Octagon debut losing a unanimous decision to Denis Kang at UFC 97 last month. This is bound to be exciting, as McFedries has only gone to the judges once in his career, and in fact his last eight fights have all ended in the first round. The negative of that is he's only gone 4-4 in that span. But to his credit he's faced nothing but tough competition in his UFC career. He should be an extremely tough fight for Pokam, and despite the betting lines I'm going to take McFedries with the first round tko to get back on the winning track.
-Sean Sherk vs. Frankie Edgar: Sean Sherk is the former UFC Lightweight Champion looking to get one more go at the top of the division while Frankie Edgar is the up and coming fighter looking to prove himself further with each fight. This is a fight that could very well be dominated by Sherk on the ground, much like what Gray Maynard did to Edgar in Edgar's lone loss, but don't expect that to happen. Sherk has no problem standing and trading with guys when he could use his size and strength in other areas as well, but still it hasn't cost him many times at all. His only career losses were at the hands of Matt Hughes and Georges St. Pierre as a welterweight, and to B.J. Penn last year in his attempt to regain his Lightweight Title. He's coming off a "Fight of the Night" victory over Tyson Griffin from last October's UFC 90 event. Edgar has also won a "Fight of the Night" against Griffin, and hasn't fought since winning the "Fight of the Night" of last July's Fight Night 14 event against Hermes Franca. Edgar has an uphill battle in this fight, as in both the standing and ground games the edge has to go to Sherk. The "Muscle Shark" takes another step toward another Lightweight Title shot with a unanimous decision victory.
-Dan Miller vs. Chael Sonnen: Dan Miller lost his third professional fight in 2006 and has not lost since then, with nine victories and one no contest coming in that stretch. He most recently submitted two time NCAA wrestling Champion Jake Rosholt in Rosholt's UFC debut in February at Fight Night 17. Sonnen's coming off of a loss to Demian Maia in his return to the UFC at UFC 94, and before that he won the now infamous WEC non-title bout against Paulo Filho in November. Almost all of his ten losses have come by way of submission, and Miller's shown himself to be very adept to pull off submissions. Put two and two together and what do you get? Dan Miller with a submission victory in first round.
-Matt Hughes vs. Matt Serra: The grudge match is finally here. After two years of bad blood and injuries and other fights getting in the way, Hughes and Serra will finally settle this in the Octagon on Saturday night. Granted, this fight is nowhere near as big as it could have been two years ago, but with a question surrounding Hughes' status after this fight and the amount of heat that there is between the two this is still a big fight. Matt Serra's going to bring more fight to Matt Hughes than Hughes is going to give him credit for, and early on that's going to have an effect on the fight. Serra will be in this in the beginning, and very well could pull of a win if he surprises Hughes with a shot like the one that downed GSP, but I don't know that he'll be able to pull that shot off. Hughes is bigger and stronger than Matt Serra, and if he does what he needs to do in this fight, and that is get Serra to the ground and utilize that size and strength in the ground and pound, then we could see some flashes of the Matt Hughes glory years. Both fighters are coming to battle, both fighters won't want to quit, and I see this one going to the judges, with Hughes using his size and strength advantage to out-point Serra in an exciting fight. Hughes by decision.
-Rashad Evans vs. Lyoto Machida (Light Heavyweight Championship: What else is there to say about these two undefeated fighters that hasn't already been said? Rashad shocked the world twice last year by knocking out Chuck Liddell and then pounding out Forrest Griffin to win the belt he now holds. Lyoto Machida showed at UFC 94 that he can do more than just be the elusive cerebral fighter who is able to win every round he competes in. The more I think about this fight, the better I think it will be. Many may be expecting the two of them to put on more of a snoozefest as they both look to counter and force the other to engage, but this is going to be tactical MMA at it's best. Machida doesn't lose rounds in the Octagon. He just doesn't. If Rashad is unable to win one of the first three rounds, or if he's not able to finish Machida in that time, the dynamic will change in the Championship rounds. While right now Rashad and his camp are talking of making Machida bring the fight, if he's down on the scorecards he's going to need to do something drastic. If the fight plays out the way it has been in my head for the last week, Rashad will need to press more because he'll need to make something happen, and that's where he's going to get caught. He's got a great chin, and Machida's not going to be the one to knock him out, but I think Machida will be able to pull of a late submission in this fight to become the new Light Heavyweight Champion. As always, I could be (and likely am!) way off on some of these predictions, but that's why the fights happen. No one can know how it's going to go down until it does, but two days out, I'm calling Machida, fifth round submission. This should be a great fight and hopefully a very good event.
So that's what's on tap this weekend, everyone. Be sure to catch our audio roundtable podcast preview of this event before the show Saturday night, and stay tuned for our live round by round coverage of the pay-per-view event as it airs on Saturday night. Stick with us here on MMATorch.com!
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Jamie Penick, editor-in-chief
(mmatorcheditor@gmail.com)
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