Penick's Take
UFC 177 PREVIEW: Penick's main card thoughts and fight picks for "Dillashaw vs. Soto" event
Aug 30, 2014 - 8:45:26 AM UFC 177 PREVIEW: Penick's main card thoughts and fight picks for "Dillashaw vs. Soto" event

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

Renan Barao's disastrous weight cut has turned UFC 177 from the worst UFC pay-per-view of 2014 into perhaps the worst UFC pay-per-view offering from the organization in the post-TUF era.

The UFC Bantamweight Championship is on the line with an unranked fighter in his UFC debut challenging the defending Champion, and the co-main event comes between two fighters who may be in the top half of the UFC's massive lightweight field, but who aren't all that close to the top 15.

Given what the UFC is putting on Fox Sports 1 just next Friday night, this card is far below a pay-per-view quality card, and it should be expected that fans will treat it as such. Still, the card's happening on Saturday night, so here's how I see things playing out.


T.J. Dillashaw vs. Joe Soto (Bantamweight Championship): As we were coming closer to this weekend, there seemed to be a shift in thought on the Dillashaw-Barao rematch, with creeping doubt that Dillashaw would necessarily duplicate what he did in May. However, that's not the fight we're going to see.

Soto comes into the UFC on a six-fight winning streak, and he's got a very good submission game, with some striking skills to boot. However, he's not been fighting anywhere close to the level of competition Dillashaw has.

Dillashaw's performance against Barao in May was masterful. He mixed up his striking attacks, his speed and movement were fantastic, and he showed off unexpected power in those combinations as well. Soto's not going to be faster than him, the submission game isn't going to be an edge against Dillashaw, and I don't think he'll have much for him on the feet. There's always a possibility that on 24 hours notice Soto could catch Dillashaw off guard, but I just don't think that happens. Dillashaw by TKO in the second round.


Danny Castillo vs. Tony Ferguson (Lightweight): Ferguson returned to action last fall after a year and a half out of the cage, and has looked fantastic in two straight stoppage wins. Castillo's been inconsistent since his time in the WEC, putting together a run of good performances only to slip up when he's had chances to move up. Castillo hits hard and has a good wrestling game, but his cardio's been suspect, and he can be stopped. Ferguson, meanwhile, is a very good striker at 155 lbs., and he's shown off a very good submission game at times as well. He's lost just once, and it came against a similar style fighter in Michael Johnson, but I think Ferguson could spoil Castillo's homecoming here. Ferguson by TKO in the second round.


Bethe Correia vs. Shayna Baszler (Women's Bantamweight): Correia controlled Baszler's teammate Jessamyn Duke on the feet for three rounds in her last outing, and with Baszler having been out for 19 months already due to TUF 18 and injuries, I don't see her faring much better. Correia's not much of a finisher, so it's unlikely she stops this one, but it would take an effort out of Baszler we just haven't seen from her in a while to pick up the win here. Correia by decision.


Ramsey Nijem vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira (Lightweight): Nijem's another one of those wildly inconsistent fighters. He's gone from a run of dominant wins to back to back stoppage losses, back to a dominant KO in his most recent fight. He's got some skills that translate to being competitive with most, and better than some, but he's got a ceiling. Ferreira made a successful UFC debut in dominant fashion by schooling TUF winner Colton Smith, and while Nijem's better than Smith, I think Ferreira's better than both. Ferreira by submission in the first round.


Yancy Medeiros vs. Damon Jackson (Lightweight): Jackson, the Legacy FC Featherweight Champ, is coming up in weight on short notice to make his UFC debut. Medeiros missed weight in his first fight after a submission loss to Jim Miller. He's also officially got no UFC wins because of a failed drug test. Medeiros, as the bigger guy, would be assumed the favorite, but it's not by all that much. Jackson's never hit the third round in his career, and he's stopped all nine of his opponents, seven by submission. I'm taking a flyer here on him pulling off the upset. Jackson by submission in the second round.