Penick's Take
UFC ON FOX 12 PREVIEW: Penick's main card breakdown and fight picks for "Lawler vs. Brown" card
Jul 26, 2014 - 11:00:19 AM UFC ON FOX 12 PREVIEW: Penick's main card breakdown and fight picks for "Lawler vs. Brown" card

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

UFC on Fox 12 is upon us on Saturday night, with the next contender in the welterweight division set to be decided when Robbie Lawler and Matt Brown square off. Here's a quick look at the night's main card fights, with my picks for Saturday's event.

Robbie Lawler vs. Matt Brown (Welterweight): From the moment this fight was made, it seemed instantly clear what type of matchup to expect. Both fighters certainly have some ground skill, but they've been defined by their hard headed toughness and their respective ability to put a beating on their opponents. Because of that, this should be an absolute brawl for however long it lasts.

In that respect, Lawler comes in with more technical striking skill, and he's very good at mixing up his attacks both to find openings and to create them. In the current run he's been enjoying in the UFC, it's been that intelligent approach towards picking guys apart and accumulating damage that has been his greatest asset.

As for Brown, a resurgence has come with some improved takedown defense and his "I just don't give a f***" relentlessness. He will take whatever you want to throw at him just so he can land any strike he can think to throw at you, and he puts power behind it all.

That comes with an inherent recklessness, though, which is also something Lawler's been guilty of in the past. The difference in Lawler's career has been slowing things down, allowing his attacks to develop, and capitalizing on openings. Brown throws with wild abandon, and he's going to keep doing so until he's pulled off of someone.

With Brown now missing weight as well on Friday, it's not the greatest start to the weekend for him. And given the way Lawler's been fighting over the last year and a half, he's the favorite in this fight for a reason. In all likelihood, Lawler picks Brown apart, countering strikes when he can, opening Brown up for flurries, and eventually scoring the stoppage. Can Brown catch Lawler and stop him if he lands the right strikes? Absolutely, he's shown the power to do that. I just don't think it happens on Saturday. Lawler by TKO in the second round.


Anthony "Rumble" Johnson vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (Light Heavyweight): Nogueira hasn't fought in a year in a half, and is coming back off a series of injuries that have kept him out of the cage. Johnson, meanwhile, has been proving himself as a legitimate top competitor in the division with several highly impressive performances in a row.

While Nogueira's decision win over Rashad Evans last year kind of stands out as a high point, it's also somewhat of an anomaly. He's got the ability to slow fights down, make them a bit more methodical, and outwork guys in the grappling department, but as Johnson showed against Phil Davis, that's not something he's necessarily going to succumb to in 2014.

Johnson, in shape and not cutting the ridiculous amounts of weight he needed to in his previous UFC run, has the grappling game to keep this fight standing, and he's got the striking game to become the first fighter to finish Nogueira since 2007. Now, he may also just do enough on the feet to win two of the three rounds, but I think he's out to move into that title conversation, and a big win here will be important in that progression. Johnson by TKO in the second round.


Clay Guida vs. Dennis Bermudez (Featherweight): Over the past several years, Clay Guida's been in a number of bad fights, and the common factor in those bouts was, frankly, Guida. He picked up decisions over Anthony Pettis and Hatsu Hioki in that time that were less dominant and clear and more dull and questionable, while getting beaten handily by Benson Henderson and knocked out by Chad Mendes. The other fight in that stretch was a decision loss to Gray Maynard that came in what can barely be described as a fight.

Now, he had a very entertaining first round against Tatsuya Kawajiri in his last outing, but that showcased what might be an uncomfortable truth for those who have backed him: it takes someone pressuring Guida and doing damage for him to fight back in any entertaining fashion.

If Guida's able to control, he's more often than not content to be on top and do just that. He's not seeking out advancements in his position that often, he's not doing much damage, and he's relying on how his movement looks for the judges.

Bermudez is a fighter who will bring the fight to Guida. He's only got two stoppages in a six fight winning streak, but he's been mostly entertaining in the decisions as well. He's got the mix of striking and grappling that works well against a guy like Guida, and this should be another win on his way to the top end of the division. Bermudez by decision.


Josh Thomson vs. Bobby Green (Lightweight): This should actually be a competitive fight. Thomson has once again admitted he's taking another fight at less than 100%, rushing back from an injury to erase the sting of a bad decision that went against him in January. Green, as a late replacement, may not be getting enough respect as a capable wrestler and striker.

Green's grind-out performance against Pat Healy in December was impressive, and he's on a seven fight winning streak into this fight. That said, Thomson's the better fighter in every area Green excels, and while he may make for a tough task, Thomson's more than likely going to do enough to win two rounds at least in this fight. Thomson by decision.


=====Preliminary Card Quick Picks=====

-Daron Cruickshank over Jorge Masvidal by TKO RD 2
-Kyle Kingsbury over Patrick Cummins by DEC
-Hernani Perpetuo over Tim Means by DEC
-Brian Ortega over Mike De La Torre by SUB RD 2
-Tiago dos Santos over Akbarh Arreola by TKO RD 1
-Steven Siler over Noad Lahat by TKO RD 2
-Gilbert Burns over Andreas Stahl by SUB RD 2
-Joanna Jedrzejczyk over Juliana Lima by TKO RD 2