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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief UFC 97 comes live to us on pay-per-view this Saturday night, and after what's felt like a really long time in between big UFC events it will be a welcomed escape. With Chuck Liddell and Anderson Silva returning to action for the first time since last fall, eyes will be squarely on them this weekend. Before we get to the breakdown of their respective fights, however, let's get some quick picks on the undercard.
Preliminary card quick picks
Eliot Marshall vs. Vinny Magalhaes: Vinny's got a great ground game, and Eliot doesn't have the wrestling ability or striking power that Ryan Bader used to get past him. Vinny takes this one by submission, round two.
Matt Wiman vs. Sam Stout: At 2-4 in the Octagon, Stout is in desperate need of a win. I'm not so sure if he's going to find it here against Wiman. Wiman needs to rebound from a surprise loss to Jim Miller in December. This fight may likely go the distance, but I like Wiman with a third round tko victory.
Mark Bocek vs. David Bielkheden: The betting lines are heavily favoring Bocek in this one, but I think it's less of a mismatch than the lines would suggest. Still, Bocek takes the decision here.
T.J. Grant vs. Ryo Chonan: Grant is riding a four fight win streak into his UFC debut, and in front of the home country fans I'm smelling the upset. Grant via second round submission.
David Loiseau vs. Ed Herman: Loiseau's making his return to the UFC for the first time since losing back to back fights in 2006 to Rich Franklin and Mike Swick. Meanwhile, Ed Herman has dropped two straight himself coming into this fight. Loiseau's poised to have a big fight in front of the Canadian Crowd, I give him the edge with the decision.
Denis Kang vs. Xavier Fouka-Pokam: Kang's a heavy, heavy favorite coming into this one, and rightfully so. Both are extremely experienced in the fight game, but Kang has fought much tougher competition in his career. Looking at two of their common opponents, Murilo "Ninja" Rua and Marvin Eastman, "Professor X" was defeated by both while Kang tko'd both men in a little over a minute combined. Kang via first round tko.
Nathan Quarry vs. Jason MacDonald: By far the best match up of the preliminary card. Quarry's coming off an early first round submission loss to Demian Maia, whereas MacDonald was last seen getting pummelled by Wilson Gouveia. MacDonald should definitely have the advantage on the ground in this one, but he's not going to be able to get it there as easily as Maia did against Quarry. Quarry needs to keep it standing, and he's going to have to do it for awhile, because MacDonald will keep pressing as the fight goes on. He's ready to get back into the win column here, and he should pick up the third round submission after a good fight.
Main card previews and predictions
Brian Stann vs. Krzysztof Soszynski: Brian Stann was a good fighter in the WEC. He's going to be a good fighter in the UFC. Unfortunately for him, it's going to take some growing pains to get to a higher level in the game. Krzysztof Soszynski will be the first of those growing pains. He's got a lot more experience and a much better ground game that will allow him to take this one. Stann's no easy victory, and he'll drag this one deeper into the fight, but I can't see him pulling this one out barring a shocking first round tko. The Ultimate Fighter season eight vet takes this with a second round submission to start the show.
Cheick Kongo vs. Antoni Hardonk: Cheick Kongo is getting into a groove. He's got two blemishes on his UFC record, both of which were split decision losses, and only four career losses as it is. After his last defeat to Heath Herring, Kongo's been out to make sure people fear him. He destroyed Dan Evensen and Mostapha Al-Turk in his last two bouts, and he's going to be looking to do the same to Antoni Hardonk on Saturday. Hardonk has had some success so far in the UFC, holding a 4-2 record in the Octagon, but this is going to be a big time step up in competition for him. The last time he faced a higher caliber heavyweight he was submitted by Frank Mir. This one could be over just as quickly, though from the knock out side of the coin. Kongo needs to dominate here to get his name on people's tongues as far as contenders are concerned in the UFC heavyweight division. A big time win here will make him one of, if not the, top contenders for whoever gets out of UFC 100 with the gold. Cheick Kongo blasts his way to Title contention with a first round tko.
Luiz Cane vs. Steve Cantwell: I am extremely intrigued by this bout, as Cantwell is really getting thrown into the deep end early in his UFC career. After pulling off one of the most gruesome submissions in the sports history in his debut with the UFC last December, the final WEC Light Heavyweight Champion is going to be in there with a legitimate top or near top 10 fighter in Luiz Cane. Cane should a penchant for absorbing punishment as he withstood a first round beating at the hands of Sokoudjou to come back and destroy his gassed out opponent in the second. He's got heavy hands, a lot of power and the desire to continue his climb up the ladder. That all makes for a bad combination for Cantwell. At the same time, you can't count the young former Champ out entirely. He's sure to give Cane all he's got early in this fight, but I don't see him getting or keeping Cane in any situations that will be to his benefit for any length of time. Cane will be too much for him as the fight rolls on and it will be Luiz Cane picking up the win with a second round tko.
Mauricio Rua vs. Chuck Liddell: In what is an absolute "must win" fight for both men, the co-main event of the evening should provide a lot of interesting questions and answers once it is finished. Should Chuck lose, does that spell the end of the line for one of the sport's most popular figures? Should "Shogun" lose will the former Pride superstar find himself out of the UFC, his mythic aura destroyed after only three fights in the Octagon? For me, it's likely going to be closer to the latter scenario that plays out. Rua is not as strong nor is he as fast as Rashad Evans, and he's also not as unorthodox as Keith Jardine or as powerful as Quinton Jackson. Those last three fighters to defeat Liddell possessed certain qualities in those fights that "Shogun" hasn't shown in his two fights in the cage. The Pride curse in the UFC continues on Saturday night, because I think Liddell's still got a few fights left in him, and he knows he needs this one more than anything. Do I think Liddell's got a chance to get back to the top of the light heavyweight division? At this point, not a chance. But that doesn't mean he's done. He's got to be coming into this fight with a 100% kill or be killed mindset, as a loss truly may mean the death of his career as a fighter. If Rua's in better shape than he was in January when he faced Mark Coleman he could make this interesting and drag the fight on a bit, but he's not going to win this fight. Chuck needs a spectacular win, he needs it now and I think he gets it on Saturday night. Liddell redeems himself with a second round tko.
Anderson Silva vs. Thales Leites: Say anything you want about Leites' ground game and how that may allow him to cause Silva some fits, but until someone beats "The Spider" in the Octagon no one can lay claim to truly stand a chance against him in that cage. When you really look at this match up, you have to realize that were it not for a couple of questionable calls against Nate Marquardt last summer this is a fight Leites would not be getting. He's a good fighter, but he can't be seen as a true challenger to that belt around Silva's waist. Silva's got more punching power than Nate Marquardt, he's got scary ability in the clinch and he can take whatever you dish out to him. Leites was overpowered by Marquardt for much of their fight and I expect this one to be similar, but much shorter. Silva's going to be out to give the crowd what they want on Saturday night, and that's him kicking someone's ass once again and moving on to the next challenge. Patrick Cote made it to the third round in October after some very tentative action on Silva's part. Leites won't have that benefit. He'll be pressured early, often and he'll succumb to that pressure. Early second round tko for the Champion to retain his belt.
So that's what we've got in store this Saturday night, and while nothing stands out as spectacular fight-wise, there is a lot of solid action to be had here. I'm looking for Liddell and Silva to please their fans around the world with a couple of great, dominating performances, and also for a lot of the under card guys to step it up, especially the Canadians.A rabid Montreal crowd should hopefully elevate the boradcast and make the card seem a bit more special than perhaps it is, and either way it should be an entertaining and enjoyable night of fights. A post script to the predictions: I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if I am way off base on a couple of these takes, as that's why we have the fights. That's the great thing about the sport and the reason why we tune in, anything can happen. So make sure to stick with us for live, round by round coverage of the event on Saturday night as this one's sure to be enjoyable.
(For the betting contest, here are my picks: $400 on Grant, $300 on MacDonald, $200 on Wiman.)
[Silva Art Credit - Corey Gould (c) MMATorch.com]
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Jamie Penick, editor-in-chief
(mmatorcheditor@gmail.com)
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