Penick's Take
UFC FIGHT NIGHT 37 PREVIEW: Penick's main card thoughts and predictions for "Gustafsson vs. Manuwa" event
Mar 8, 2014 - 12:55:31 AM UFC FIGHT NIGHT 37 PREVIEW: Penick's main card thoughts and predictions for "Gustafsson vs. Manuwa" event

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

In a matter of hours, the UFC will be back with a live event on UFC Fight Pass, the second Saturday in a row they've brought a card to the digital network. This week they're bringing Alexander Gustafsson in his first fight since his epic five-round bout with Jon Jones last year from London. As I type this I'm back in the ER for the second time this week, sitting beside my wife who has been ill since Monday morning in no relation to giving birth to our second child last week! As it's been a bit of a hectic and distracted week, I'll take a truncated look at the card here quickly with some thoughts on the main card before we get to the event tomorrow afternoon.


Alexander Gustafsson vs. Jimi Manuwa (Light Heavyweight): This seems like a fairly clear fight to break down. Manuwa is undefeated, sure, and hits like a truck, but in his last three UFC wins he's benefited from doctors stopping a fight or injuries to his opponents, rather than finishing those fighters within the rounds of the fight.

Alexander Gustafsson, meanwhile, has hung in there with the best of the best and nearly captured the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship last September.

Gustafsson's a much more well rounded fighter, with the ability to stop this fight both on the feet and on the ground. He's got a significant height advantage, he's got a slight reach advantage, he's a better grappler, etc. There's not a thing that Manuwa does, save his power striking, that Gustafsson doesn't do better or more efficiently. I just don't see the upset happening here.

Gustafsson can hang with Manuwa on the feet, but the smarter path might be targeting a ground battle. If he engages in a firefight, he risks taking that one shot that changes things entirely. On the other hand, he took Jon Jones down. Manuwa isn't Jon Jones, and though we haven't seen him at risk on the ground, Gustafsson's better there. Gustafsson by submission in the second round


Michael Johnson vs. Melvin Guillard (Lightweight): Melvin Guillard is among the more inconsistent fighters in UFC history, and though his last two fights have seen him in blitzkrieg mode, he's not far removed from a 1-4 stretch. Johnson's had some inconsistency himself in the UFC, but while he suffered a couple of losses in 2013, he's come back with strong performances in a wins over Joe Lauzon and a highly impressive KO over Gleison Tibau. Can Guillard knock Johnson out? Absolutely. But he's far too wild and leaves himself open for counters. Given what Johnson's been doing lately, that's deadly. Johnson by KO in the first round.


Brad Pickett vs. Neil Seery (Flyweight): Pickett's making a desperate move to get one more title run here with this move down to flyweight, and it's no easy task to make that weight cut. That said, Pickett's been in the cage with some damned good fighters, and at the very least he's been competitive through most of them. He's had some excellent wins in the UFC, he's had some devastating losses, but those defeats have all come to high end opponents. Seery enters this card on short notice due to the injury suffered by Ian McCall. He's won six of his last seven, but while he's got several wins by submission, he's also lost five fights by submission as well. That plays real well into Pickett's game, and if this becomes a grappling battle, it's certainly Pickett's fight to lose. Pickett by submission in the second round.


Gunnar Nelson vs. Omari Akhmedov (Welterweight): Nelson's been out of the cage for a year, having suffered a few injuries and even having survived a near life-threatening car accident. That said, he's a highly talented grappler and if healthy a very highly touted prospect. Akhmedov made a successful UFC debut in knocking out Thiago Perpetuo, coming back from nearly getting knocked out himself in a wild and crazy one round fight. He's got some submission skills of his own, with power in his strikes to boot, and that makes for a competitive fight here. I think Nelson's going to prove to be the better of the two on the ground, though, and he'll score one of a number of much-needed submissions on this card. Nelson by submission in the second round.