Penick's Take
UFC 169 PREVIEW: Penick's breakdown and fight picks for "Barao vs. Faber II" event
Jan 31, 2014 - 9:25:16 PM UFC 169 PREVIEW: Penick's breakdown and fight picks for "Barao vs. Faber II" event

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

The UFC's first pay-per-view of 2014 brings two title fights on Saturday night to Newark, New Jersey. For the second time, Renan Barao and Urijah Faber will meet for a UFC Bantamweight Championship, and this time the "Interim" label has been dropped. Meanwhile, Jose Aldo returns to action as Ricardo Lamas gets his long awaited shot at the UFC Featherweight Title. Here's what's coming up on pay-per-view.


Renan Barao vs. Urijah Faber (UFC Bantamweight Championship)

We know what happened the last time these two fought. Barao was the faster striker, and he stuffed every one of Faber's takedown attempts. Faber was flustered in that fight in a way that hadn't been seen prior or since.

Faber believes he wasn't mentally into that fight, and he rebounded with perhaps his best career run last year. But the question this time around will be whether or not that run has him in a position to perform differently this time around.

"The California Kid" has knock down power in his hands, but it's his instincts in transition that are key to him finishing fights. Looking at his most recent fight with Michael McDonald, he was faster in his strikes than he showed against Barao in 2012, and when he had McDonald hurt and sent him to the ground, he was able to find that choke quickly.

When he's at his best, he's capable of mixing up his attacks, beating fighters up on the feet and submitting them on the ground. His ability to get the finish on the ground is as good as anyone at 135 lbs., but when it comes to these title fights the last several years, he just hasn't fought with the same urgency or intensity that he has in non-title bouts.

As for Barao, he's a better striker than Faber overall, and for as good as he is on the feet, he's even better on the ground. He's got the ability to avoid the ground if he'd rather keep it standing, and he's dangerous no matter where the fight takes place. What happened in the first fight is he was able to neutralize Faber in the takedown game, and pick him apart on the feet. But he was aware enough of what Faber can do with even small openings that he never got ahead of himself.

In this rematch, I expect Faber to look better than he did the last time they fought, even on three weeks notice. He has more at stake this time, this opportunity is bigger than their last meeting felt, and he's got to leave everything in the cage to capture this title this time. I'm just not sure it can be done.

Barao is the best fighter in the 135 lb. division right now, and he has so many ways to beat fighters. And along with that, there's just no blueprint on how to actually beat him, and so until someone can pull it off, the presumption will rightfully be that he's not getting beat. I think it should be a tougher fight for Barao this time around, but he once again neutralizes some of the danger and picks up another win.

PREDICTION: Barao by decision


Jose Aldo vs. Ricardo Lamas (UFC Featherweight Champinoship)

Jose Aldo is a massively well-versed Champion, he's lost just one time in his entire MMA career, and it's been eight and a half years since that happened. His striking game is second to none at featherweight, and he's got a solid jiu jitsu game even if it hasn't been on display as much in his WEC and UFC career.

Ricardo Lamas is a very skilled wrestler with absolutely vicious ground and pound and a bit of a submission game to go with it. He's a grinder at times, but he's very good at putting pressure on his opponents and wearing them down to open up a finish. That was key in his wins over both Cub Swanson and Erik Koch to get this title fight.

Lamas needs to survive early in order to put his gameplan into play, because if there's ever been any weakness displayed in Aldo's game, it may be cardio. The only time anyone's had more than fleeting success against him was when Mark Hominick got him down in the fifth round of their title fight and scored a significant amount of offense.

For Lamas to win this fight, he's going to need to survive the early rounds and get Aldo worn down late, and he'd likely need a late stoppage as well. But surviving against Jose Aldo is a lot easier said than done, especially when he's got as big of a striking advantage as he'll have in this fight. I don't think it happens here, and Aldo clears out another contender.

PREDICTION: Aldo via TKO in the second round


Alistair Overeem vs. Frank Mir (Heavyweight)

Alistair Overeem has been knocked out in consecutive fights, while Mir has been stopped in two of his last three, getting simply beat up for three rounds in the lone decision.

We know what to expect from both guys here. Mir, while he's probably willing to try to take Overeem's head off, is one of the most dangerous submission fighters in the division. Overeem is a heavy handed striker whose cardio and hubris have been his downfall in the last two fights.

Mir is capable of knocking Overeem out. Overeem's chin isn't a great asset, and he's hittable, but before you get to that point you have to absorb what he's throwing out your way. I don't think Mir can do that at this stage, and he goes down in an early Overeem blitz.

PREDICTION: Overeem via TKO in the first round


John Lineker vs. Ali Bagautinov (Flyweight)

Lineker is such an enigma right now. He's got a ton of talent, he's a buzz-saw in the striking department who can demolish fighters with his striking exchanges, but his inability to make weight time and again continue to keep him out of the title picture.

Bagautinov is a dangerous Russian fighter with stopping power on the feet and on the ground, and he's also able to grind out fights if he needs to do so.

This fight honestly may not last long, which could potentially benefit Lineker, but for as much as he's able to score berserker like finishes, he can be hit as well, and he's susceptible to mistakes on the ground. Bagautinov may be able to stand and trade with him, but the better path is likely on the ground, where he can wear Lineker down to score a stoppage later in the fight.

PREDICTION: Bagautinov via submission in the second round


Jamie Varner vs. Abel Trujillo (Lightweight)

Abel Trujillo beat the crap out of Roger Bowling twice in a row in his last two fights, but for as violent as he can be, he can be taken down and grinded out.

Jamie Varner, the former WEC Champ, has some heavy hands on his feet, and is a very good wrestler in his own right as well. That said, he's also been his own worst enemy in a few fights and has been quite inconsistent as of late.

Varner's chin makes me believe he can withstand some early onslaughts from Trujillo, and Khabib Nurmagomedov showed a clear way to best Trujillo with a relentless grappling game. Varner's capable of doing that, and if he doesn't get hurt early, I think he can certainly win two rounds here.

PREDICTION: Varner via decision


=====Preliminary Card Quick Picks======

-John Makdessi over Alan Patrick by decision
-Chris Cariaso over Danny Martinez by decision
-Tom Watson over Nick Catone by TKO in the second round
-Kevin Lee over Al Iaquinta by submission in the second round
-Andy Enz over Clint Hester by submission in the first round
-Rashid Magomedov over Tony Martin by decision
-Gasan Umalatov over Neil Magny by submission in the second round