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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief After a weekend off from having a major live event on TV or pay-per-view it's time to get right back into the thick of things with tomorrow night's UFC 95: Sanchez vs. Stevenson card. Airing via tape delay from London on Spike TV tomorrow night the main televised card features the first time we'll see Diego Sanchez in the lightweight division along with two great bouts in the middleweight ranks that will more than likely determine the next challenger for the Middleweight Championship. Before we get to the main card, however, some thoughts on the undercard match-ups (with predictions):
-Paul Kelly vs. Troy Mandaloniz: Kelly suffered defeat for the first time in his last bout and Mandaloniz hasn't fought since December of 07. I don't see Kelly losing two in a row, but this should for sure be an exciting fight, although I can see this one going the distance so it more than likely won't make the broadcast. Kelly via unanimous decision.
-Neil Grove vs. Mike Ciesnolevicz: Ciesnolevicz took this fight on short notice, and on top of that he moved up in weight class as he typically fights at light heavyweight. And while Grove will have a significant size and strength advantage in this fight, Ciesnolevicz cannot be overlooked. His overall game is stronger and I'm not sold on Grove if the fight goes deep, but that said it could end early as well. If that happens, it's likely it's Grove dropping the newcomer, but if it goes late it'll be the 16-3 Ciesnolevicz's fight to win. Ciesnolevicz via third round submission.
-Brian Cobb vs. Terry Etim: Cobb is another fighter on this card taking a fight on short notice, but lucky for him he was already training to fight on Saturday at a different show, so the time shouldn't be a factor. This one will be a battle of location. If Etim can somehow keep this one standing he'll have the striking advantage and may be able to catch Cobb with a shot, but that more than likely won't happen in this fight. Cobb's too good of a wrestler for Etim and will be able to take him down and keep him there in this fight. He'll either ground and pound him out, or just pull the Clay Guida and control Etim en route to a win. Cobb via unanimous decision.
-Evan Dunham vs. Per Eklund: Eklund's got the experience, Dunham's got the undefeated record and the air of the unknown about him. Tough one to call as the undefeated prospect is another taking the fight on short notice with the string of injuries that has come on lately, but I really can't give Dunham the edge simply because I haven't seen enough of him. Eklund via third round tko.
-Junior dos Santos vs. Stefan Struve: Struve is a heavyweight submission specialist, with 12 of his 16 victories coming by way of submission, and this will be a very good match up against the man who shocked the MMA world by knocking out Fabricio Werdum in the first round. Junior Dos Santos made a statement with his power in that fight, and if he keeps it on the feet he'll be able to make another one tomorrow night. Struve may be skilled at submissions, but Dos Santos will be able to avoid that. It may not hit the ground at all, in fact. Dos Santos via first round tko.
Main Televised Card Previews and Predictions
Dan Hardy vs. Rory Markham:
This fight should be a blast to start off the main card, and I expect this one will more than likely take place on the feet. Overall Hardy's the better fighter, but it's not by much, and Markham's been calling Hardy's striking power into question recently, so this one could be a bit of a war. It's a tough one to call, because I think either could end up clipping the other to take control of the fight. I think this one ends early either way, but I'll give it to Hardy with a second round tko.
Chael Sonnen vs. Demian Maia:
This is a great match up, and it will be another in a series of tough challenges for the ever impressive Maia. Sonnen's been very vocal about the fact that he believes the winner of this fight is the best middleweight in the UFC. Yes, better than the current Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva. That's nowhere near the case, however Maia will be capable of testing that theory sooner rather than later with yet another win in the Octagon. His four appearances have brought him four submission victories, three of which made him some extra money by gaining submission of the night honors.
Sonnen comes into this fight after one of the strangest and worst fights in recent memory against Paulo Filho in November at WEC 36, and while he's amassed an impressive number of wins on his way to this fight he's had difficulty against the very thing that is Maia's bread and butter, the jiu jitsu game. Maia has already shown a knack for making the fight take place wherever he wants it to take place. He showed that in his amazing fight against Jason MacDonald and then again against Nate Quarry where he was able to get him down early and slowly work his way into the submission. This fight will be Maia's for the taking if he can work that control again, and he'll continue on his path towards an inevitable Middleweight Championship fight. Maia via submission round three.
Nathan Marquardt vs. Wilson Gouveia:
This one has the makings for a great mixed martial arts fight. Both fighters are very strong in the striking game, and they definitely hold their own in the ground game as well. This should be an action packed fight, and one that will more than likely determine the next man to face Anderson Silva (should he get past Thales Leites, of course). Both Nate Marquardt and Wilson Gouveia are large, strong middleweights. In fact, Gouveia was unable to actually make the 185 lb. limit for his last fight with Jason MacDonald, something he's sworn he would not allow again. Gouveia's got great heavy hands and and some very good speed, although questions about his stamina will be more prevalent by the end of this one.
Nate Marquardt is hungry. He's determined to get another crack at Anderson Silva after having been bested by the Champ in their first meeting, and this fight with Gouveia may get him that second chance. Marquardt is a smart, strong and highly skilled fighter, and his cardio should be his main advantage in this fight. I don't expect either fighter to be finished early in this fight, as they're both able to absorb punishment and keep moving, but as the fight drags on Marquardt's more than likely going to be moving at a higher pace than Gouveia. That will allow him to get the advantage. Marquardt via third round tko.
Josh Koscheck vs. Paulo Thiago:
With a perfect record coming into the UFC, Paulo Thiago is certainly not getting an easy welcome. Josh Koscheck wants to fight a ton in 2009, and was more than happy to take this fight to welcome a newcomer. Thiago's specialty is the submission game, which is to be expected considering his career has been largely based in Brazil. He won't get a chance to utilize that in this fight, however, as Koscheck's world class wrestling will allow him to keep this one standing.
That's where Koscheck will continue to develop what has become an increasingly effective part of his game: striking. I'll fully admit to having not been a Josh Koscheck fan for the longest time due to his actions on the Ultimate Fighter and his tendency early in his career to grind out decisions with his wrestling, but I've completely come around. His fight with Thiago Alves, while a loss, still endeared him to many with the heart and determination he showed to stay in that fight until the final buzzer. While he was never close to winning that fight, it was a great effort on short notice and led to an even better performance less than two months later when he delivered one of the most vicious knockouts of all year against Yoshiyuki Yoshida. That part of his game has improved so exponentially that he no longer needs to rely on his wrestling. That will be what keeps this fight standing and he'll pick up another tko victory. Koscheck via third round tko.
Diego Sanchez vs. Joe Stevenson:
The big question coming into Sanchez's lightweight debut is how his cardio will hold up. He's stated he was up to as much as 190 lbs. as close as December so the weight loss needed is quite dramatic. Whether or not he's able to make the cut completely and still be the cardio machine he's been at 170 will be the deciding factor in this fight. All other things aside he'll be bigger, stronger, and perhaps faster than Stevenson in this fight. It's an interesting spot for Stevenson to be in, to say the least.
After losses to B.J. Penn and Kenny Florian in 2008, the new year isn't being any kinder to the season two winner of the Ultimate Fighter. If Sanchez comes into this fight with no ill effects from the weight cut it's going to be another long night for Stevenson, as Sanchez will be able to outstrike, outmaneuver and outmuscle him throughout the fight. If Sanchez's cardio has been drained due to the weight cut, however, Stevenson will be at a decide advantage in the second and third round and will be able to pick up a decision victory, if not outright wear Sanchez out enough to slap on a submission.
I don't think that'll happen, however. I think Sanchez will handle the remainder of the weight cut fine and he'll come into tomorrow night's main event ready to make a statement to the rest of the lightweight division. He's said himself he's only got a limited window in which to compete in this division and he'll be trying to make the most of that opportunity. Unfortunately for Stevenson, I think Sanchez is just going to be too big and too strong for him tomorrow night and it'll result in his third loss in four fights. Sanchez via second round tko.
So that's what's on tap tomorrow night. Be sure to check in throughout the weekend with any last minute updates on the card as well as our coverage of the tape-delayed broadcast tomorrow night. Also on tap this weekend, our own Jason Bent will be in attendance at the Ultimate Warrior Challenge "Man O' War" event tomorrow night in our Washington D.C., and he'll have coverage of that event including fighter interviews and more. We've got it all here on MMATorch.com, so stick around!
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Jamie Penick, editor-in-chief
(mmatorcheditor@gmail.com)
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