Penick's Take
UFC 168 PREVIEW: Penick's breakdown and fight picks for "Weidman vs. Silva II" event in Las Vegas
Dec 27, 2013 - 11:20:26 PM UFC 168 PREVIEW: Penick's breakdown and fight picks for "Weidman vs. Silva II" event in Las Vegas

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

The UFC closes out their 2013 schedule in a massive way on Saturday night, bringing one of the most anticipated rematches ever to pay-per-view from Las Vegas. In addition to that Chris Weidman vs. Anderson Silva fight in the night's main event, Ronda Rousey's second UFC fight comes when she takes on the woman she defeated to capture her title, Miesha Tate. It's an action-packed night, here's how I see things into the event:


Chris Weidman vs. Anderson Silva (UFC Middleweight Championship)

There's no denying what we saw in July. Chris Weidman trudged forward as Silva attempted to do what he'd done to so many in the past, and landed a brutal left hook on the button. It was one of the most shocking finishes ever, and one of the most monumental shifts in a division in UFC history.

But throw that fight out the window. It tells us is that Weidman is capable of taking advantage of openings given to him, but that doesn't mean those openings will be available this time around.

Taking this matchup as the best version of Weidman against the best version of Silva, we've got a very good young fighter with heavy hands, good wrestling, and solid submission skills against one of the single greatest fighters the UFC's ever seen. Anderson Silva is as capable as ever of frustrating Weidman and throwing him off - he did just that for several minutes in the first fight - but the biggest question into this fight is whether or not he takes advantage of that offensively.

Of everything that's been said about that first fight, one of the clearest differences between that bout and much of Silva's tenure is general lack of offense. He had Weidman flustered with his hands at his side, but as Weidman would come in missing strikes, Silva wasn't making him pay as he's done to past opponents. He continued trying to egg him on without throwing the strikes needed to stop him, and Weidman, to his credit, kept walking forward until eventually he did land.

Now, that wasn't Weidman's game. Standing and striking with Silva for any given amount of time cannot be the first plan of attack for any opponent, and Weidman still has to believe he's got an edge with his top game. He got Silva down in that first fight, but didn't keep him there, and didn't work to his strengths.

Despite what happened in that first fight, the key for Weidman is to work this fight where he's strongest. We've seen Silva stuck on his back for several rounds, taking strikes, and if Weidman can plant him there and deliver his strikes, he's wholly capable of stopping things on the ground.

Silva's unlikely to be submitted, but he's had his lights turned off now, and if Weidman can find his chin there, he can put him out once again.

However, Silva's loss in July doesn't mean he's done. It doesn't even mean he's been figured out. He was effectively throwing Weidman off of what he wanted to do in that fight, and had he been a step further back may have missed that left hook and delivered a counter strike. His biggest issue was a lack of offense while he had Weidman flustered, and he was eventually made to pay for that.

This time around, he has to respect Weidman's power, has to respect his ground game, and quite simply has to respect Weidman himself. Weidman is the Champion for a reason, but he needs this win solidify himself as the new king in the middleweight division. However, this is a fight Silva wants back, it's a loss he's capable of avenging, and this time around I don't think he'll be as passive as he was in July.

PREDICTION: Silva via TKO in the second round


Ronda Rousey vs. Miesha Tate (UFC Women's Bantamweight Championship)

The biggest thing accomplished by The Ultimate 18 was getting almost everyone to forget about Miesha Tate's April loss to Cat Zingano. The rivalry has taken center stage, and she gained new fan appreciation in contrast to Rousey because of their actions on the show, and it's all led to a more palpable energy into this rematch.

Of course, we've seen this fight once before, and it wasn't that long ago. Less than two years removed from when Rousey captured the title, she's coming in with more time in the cage under her belt, having easily dispatched Sarah Kaufman and fought through some adversity against Liz Carmouche. She's also adding more to her striking arsenal, and is going to be a more dangerous version of Ronda Rousey than we've yet seen.

Tate, in that time, has picked up a submission win over Julie Kedzie in a fight where she didn't look particularly good until the third round, then lost to Zingano after winning the first two rounds.

The issue here is there's just not anything she does that suggests she can impose her game on Rousey. She's a good wrestler, sure, but she's not going to keep Rousey on her back. She's certainly not going to pick up a submission win over Rousey, and the more time spent on the ground the more opportunities Rousey has to scramble. On the feet, she's hit Rousey with some very hard strikes, only to have it not be very effective.

Tate simply doesn't have the kryptonite to Rousey's game. She's not the stylistic nightmare that someone will need to be in order to drag Rousey into deep waters and find a way to end her run. That person may yet come, but it's not Tate, not at this point of their careers.

PREDICTION: Rousey via submission in the first round


Josh Barnett vs. Travis Browne (Heavyweight)

Travis Browne's got a major height and reach advantage here, but Josh Barnett isn't the type of fighter who will be sitting on the outside trying to deal with that. Barnett's going to be in Browne's face, pressing him in the clinch, trying to put him on his back, and attempting to submit him or take him out with dirty boxing.

Browne's got to find a way to avoid that. He's got good takedown defense, he has power in close in the clinch himself, and his ground game isn't bad either. He can win this fight if he can keep distance and out-strike Barnett, but Barnett's certainly not a guy who will give him many openings for a finish.

This comes down to which of them can get the advantage more often than the other, and at this stage you have to give that edge to Barnett. Browne can absolutely break through in this fight, but it's going to be a massively difficult task. This should be a good one in the heavyweight division, but I have to give Barnett the slight nod here.

PREDICTION: Barnett via decision


Jim Miller vs. Fabricio Camoes (Lightweight)

There's no reason for this fight to be on the pay-per-view card other than to give fans a slight break from everything else that's on the main card. Camoes hasn't fought since a dull decision loss to Melvin Guillard last year, while Jim Miller returns for the first time since a loss-turned-no-contest against Pat Healy in April.

Miller's fought a much higher level of competition throughout his career, and though Camoes has been in the sport for a long time, he's just not on Miller's level in this division. That's even if Miller is a lesser version of himself in 2013.

PREDICTION: Miller via submission in the second round


Dustin Poirier vs. Diego Brandao (Featherweight)

Any analysis for this one kind of goes out of the window after the weigh-ins, as Brandao came in at an absurd 153 lbs. Missing weight by that much drastically affects how this fight could play out, as it's essentially a fight between opponents in two different weight classes.

Now, Poirier's anger at Brandao missing weight could provide the spark to have him take Brandao out easily. Further, missing weight that badly could point to something bad hurting Brandao in camp or a bad weight cut hurting his body to the point he had to quit. If that's the case, Poirier could have a major edge.

On the other side of that, the fact that Brandao is a very good grappler and now has a major weight edge over Poirier could spell trouble for Poirier. If Brandao has more weight on him, that means more for Poirier to deal with on the ground, which could give Brandao an edge.

It's impossible to say what that added seven pounds means for this fight, but it's an awful display from Brandao and completely unprofessional. Poirier will be out to make him pay for that.

PREDICTION: Poirier via TKO in the second round


=====Preliminary Card Quick Picks=====

-Uriah Hall over Chris Leben via KO in the first round
-Michael Johnson over Gleison Tibau via decision
-Dennis Siver over Manny Gamburyan via TKO in the second round
-Siyar Bahadurzada over John Howard via TKO in the second round
-William Macario over Bobby Voelker via TKO in the first round
-Robbie Peralta over Estevan Payan via TKO in the second round