Penick's Take
UFC 153 PREVIEW: Penick's breakdown and predictions for "Silva vs. Bonnar" event in Brazil
Oct 13, 2012 - 2:20:15 PM UFC 153 PREVIEW: Penick's breakdown and predictions for "Silva vs. Bonnar" event in Brazil

DISCUSS ALL THIS IN OUR NEW MMATORCH FORUM

...OH, ONE MORE THING - PLEASE BOOKMARK US & VISIT DAILY!

By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

UFC 153 will take place tomorrow from the HSBC Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The card has a very different make up than it did just a month ago, and the top three fights on the card were all slapped together on short notice 24 hours after losing the main and co-main events. But there's still plenty to like about the event, with a lot of highly entertaining fights on the docket. Here's what's coming to Brazil tomorrow:

Anderson Silva vs. Stephan Bonnar (Light Heavyweight)

Anderson Silva jumps up to the light heavyweight division for the third time in his UFC career, and the second time on short notice as a favor to the UFC. This is an interesting fight for a few reasons. 1) Bonnar is a very hard fighter to finish, and outside of a headbutt that opened a cut on his forehead, it hasn't happened in the UFC. 2) He's got a size edge on Silva and could potentially give him some trouble in the grappling department. 3) It's Anderson Silva.

Bonnar's certainly a tough fighter and has some skills to hang in the cage with Silva for a time. However, the UFC Middleweight Champion is in the spot he's in for a reason. He's got a massive speed advantage, a power advantage, and a skill advantage in every aspect of the game. Bonnar's also not the type of wrestler that is going to be able to repeat what Chael Sonnen did in the first fight against Silva. Neither fighter is going to be in their best fighting shape, but I'd hazard a guess that Silva will be more prepared considering Bonnar hasn't fought in 11 months.

Though Bonnar's got nothing to lose, and will do anything he can to make this a fight, this is still another chance for Silva to simply showcase how much better he is than the rest of the field. Bonnar may hang for awhile, but he's ultimately far too out-matched against the best fighter in UFC history.

PREDICTION: Silva via TKO in the second round

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Dave Herman (Heavyweight)

Nogueira is the better fighter than the inconsistent Herman, but he's also returning for the first time since his arm was shattered against Frank Mir, and he's doing so on short notice. He looked bad at the weigh-ins on Friday, and there's no telling what type of shape he'll be in come fight time.

Still, despite Herman's striking game, he's at a disadvantage in most aspects of the fight against the longtime veteran. Had Nogueira been in better shape into the event, I think I'd favor his striking game as well, considering the power he showed against Brendan Schaub and Mir before getting caught.

The way things are, though, I think he'll be looking to bring the fight to the ground in order to utilize his submission game. Based on what we've seen of him thus far, I don't think we can put much stock into Herman despite an out of shape Nogueira, and I'd be surprised if he pulled off the upset in Brazil.

PREDICTION: Nogueira via submission in the second round

Glover Teixeira vs. Fabio Maldonado (Light Heavyweight)

Maldonado has been on the wrong end of a couple of poor decisions in the UFC, and now he's in a fight he asked for against the very dangerous Glover Teixeira.

This matchup pits a heavy-handed, fast, and dangerous striker against a tough, durable opponent, but one who doesn't get off to fast starts in his fights. Maldonado believes he's got the skills to defeat Teixeira, but he doesn't have the power to hurt him in the same vein as he'll be getting hurt in the fight.

Teixeira needs another big performance in order to keep himself on the same trajectory to get a step up in competition, and I expect that's what we'll see on Saturday.

PREDICTION: Teixeira via TKO in the first round

Jon Fitch vs. Erick Silva (Welterweight)

This fight is going to be a gigantic test for Erick Silva, and it's a chance for him to showcase just how legit he is as a contender in the welterweight division. He's looked excellent through three fights, breezing past Luis Ramos and Carlo Prater (though he lost the latter bout by DQ due to shots to the back of the head), and submitting Charlie Brenneman.

Fitch marks a major step in competition, though. His wrestling and top control game is elite at welterweight, and outside of getting clipped by Johny Hendricks last December, he's only lost to Georges St-Pierre in the UFC. Fitch can get hit, he's shown that in several fights, but he's had time to heal up, and comes into Saturday's event in desperate need of a win.

Fitch's wrestling game is the dominant skill set in this fight. He's going to look to put Silva on his back and keep him there, and Silva's ability - or lack thereof - to get up and work his striking game will be the story of this fight. Silva's got a future in the welterweight division, but this is a major step up in competition for him, and I'm not sure it's a test he can pass just yet.

PREDICTION: Fitch via decision

Phil Davis vs. Wagner Prado (Light Heavyweight)

What little action we saw from these two in August before the unfortunate eye poke didn't really give us much of an idea of what we'll get from the fight on Saturday. Davis has a great wrestling and submission game, but his striking is still way behind that aspect of his game. Prado's got a history of striking stoppages, but he's not faced anyone with Davis' ground game yet.

Prado might be able to hurt Davis on the feet, but we haven't seen Davis in trouble like that yet in the UFC. His only issues came against a fellow wrestler in Rashad Evans, who was also the better striker in that fight in January. Coming into Saturday, this is a fight in which Davis should be able to dictate the pace, and I'd expect him to be able to work well on the ground.

PREDICTION: Davis via submission in the first round

Demian Maia vs. Rick Story (Welterweight)

Maia's bout with Dong Hyun Kim unfortunately ended due to injury, so we didn't get a full feel for how he was going to look in that welterweight debut, but he went back to his grappling game in a positive sign for things to come. He's faced fighters in the middleweight division over several fights who were able to stifle his grappling, and his striking game, while improved, wasn't up to par.

Story's got some speed with his striking game, and can give Maia some trouble there, and he's also a bully with his grappling, and will look to dictate the pace. However, I think this is the perfect fight for Maia to reestablish just what made him such a dominating fighter on his rise up the middleweight ranks, and Story pressing the pace could leave him open to being on the wrong end of grappling exchanges. I like Maia to earn his first submission win in almost four years.

PREDICTION: Maia via submission in the second round

=====Preliminary Card Quick Picks=====

--Rony Jason over Sam Sicilia via submission in the first round
--Gleison Tibau over Francisco Trinaldo via decision
--Diego Brandao over Joey Gambino via submission in the second round
--Sergio Moraes over Renee Forte via decision
--Chris Camozzi over Luis Cane via decision
--Reza Madadi over Cristiano Marcello via TKO in the second round