Penick's Take
PENICK: UFC 143's Nick Diaz vs. Carlos Condit - A Round by Round Breakdown of What Actually Happened
Feb 6, 2012 - 9:45:15 AM PENICK: UFC 143's Nick Diaz vs. Carlos Condit - A Round by Round Breakdown of What Actually Happened

DISCUSS ALL THIS IN OUR NEW MMATORCH FORUM

...OH, ONE MORE THING - PLEASE BOOKMARK US & VISIT DAILY!

By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

This article was originally published on Sunday, February 5.

Saturday night's UFC 143 main event between Carlos Condit and Nick Diaz was a very close five-round fight that warranted at least a second look. Condit won a unanimous decision with scores of 48-47, 49-46, and 49-46, but for many Diaz supporters it was an unthinkable result.

Surely the fact that Diaz was walking forward and Condit was running away should have given Diaz the decision, right? Except that's not what happened in the fight. Those equating Condit's performance to Kalib Starnes' infamous bout against Nate Quarry are simply spouting sour grapes and ignoring the reality of what happened in the fight.

I've re-watched the fight twice since last night, and while my live score of 48-47 Condit hasn't changed, a 49-46 result for him is not out of the realm of possibility. That doesn't mean the two judges that scored the fight 49-46 for Condit got it all right, because they didn't. Two judges gave Condit rounds 1, 2, 4, and 5, while giving Diaz round 3. One judge scored exactly as I did live, with Condit taking rounds 1, 3, and 4. But let's take a look at each round and what we actually saw in the fight.

ROUND ONE

Diaz's strategy was the same as it always is: pressure his opponent, corner him, and unleash strikes. However, while he was walking forward, he wasn't cutting off Condit's angles, and Condit effectively landed several hard leg kicks while circling away from the pressure and re-setting. According to the official FightMetric report for the fight, Condit out-struck Diaz 29-23 in the first round in significant strikes. While Diaz did land more to the body and head, Condit's effective leg kicks and short combinations while avoiding damage before engaging himself gave him the round. Simply moving forward and trying to taunt your opponent does not win you a round, and Diaz failed to do a whole lot offensively in the first round.

RD 1 TO CONDIT: 10-9 CONDIT

ROUND TWO

The round looked very similar to the first, but the difference in this frame is Diaz's output. Condit delivered the same amount of strikes as the first round, but landed more to the head and body while still circling and resetting. This round, though, Diaz was able to find his range a bit more, and landed 32 significant strikes - including 19 shots to Condit's head and 15 to the body (most of which came in a really nice flurry on the cage). He was able to cut Condit off here more than in the first round, and it allowed him to get off a few more strikes than in the first to take the round. It wasn't a blowout round, but I don't have an argument for Condit taking the second upon the second and third viewings as I thought he might have live.

RD 2 TO DIAZ: 19-19

ROUND THREE

This was another really close round, with Diaz scoring on a few combinations that definitely did damage, but for the last several minutes of the round it was Condit turning his attack up. He would circle away, then engage with a a few kicks and punches in succession. Not only that, but he was successful in connecting on those attacks, and out-struck Diaz in the round 33-24 overall. Much like the first round as well, almost all of Condit's strikes were deemed "significant strikes" by FightMetric. Once again it was a case of Diaz moving forward, but not having much output and not being very successful offensively. Here's a really telling stat about the fight. By the end of the third round of Diaz's fight with B.J. Penn in October, Diaz had landed 257 total strikes, 178 of which were "significant strikes." Through three rounds with Carlos Condit, he had landed a total of 87 strikes, with only 77 "significant strikes." Condit's defensive gameplan worked here, and again it goes back to effectiveness while moving forward. Moving forward alone does not mean you're winning the fight, and a fighter who is winning the striking exchanges and out-landing his opponent is not running. Another round for Condit.

RD 3 TO CONDIT: 29-28 CONDIT

ROUND FOUR

The second round was clearly Diaz's, despite two judges giving it to Condit, but the fourth round was by far the clearest for either fighter, and it was in Condit's favor. He got in a rhythm, connecting on quick combinations, and circling out to reset before engaging with more strikes. He outlanded Diaz 37 to 11 in this frame, with 36 of his strikes being deemed "significant." He landed 13 strikes to the head while Diaz landed all of two, and though Diaz had an edge in body shots, it was slight. Eight body shots to seven from Condit. For FightMetric's effectiveness score, Condit took the round 73-9 over Diaz, and on my card he entered the fifth frame ahead 3-1.

RD 4 TO CONDIT: 39-37 CONDIT

ROUND FIVE

The fifth and final round appeared to be Diaz's clearly while watching live, but upon the second and third viewings it was much, much closer, and the only round I considered switching from my original score. Condit was having much of the same success he had in the fourth for the first three and a half minutes of the fight, again avoiding much of Diaz's offense and landing strikes when he reengaged. Diaz was so frustrated in his own striking game that he resorted to the final minute pull-down, taking Condit's back and attempting to attack for a submission. However, he wasn't ever close to locking anything on, and while he had a minute of back control, it doesn't necessarily make up for being out-struck 30-19 overall, and 25-17 in significant strikes. In the effectiveness score on FightMetric, the closeness of the round was evident, as they gave the edge to Diaz by the thin margin of 68-64. It was a close frame that could have been 10-10 or 10-9 in Condit's favor. Still, Diaz was a little more effective with his strikes, Condit didn't do as much damage as in the fourth, and the minute of back control was significant. So the final frame went to Diaz for me.

RD 5 TO DIAZ: 48-47 CONDIT

My final score after the second and third viewing is the same as watching it live, but it was a closely contested bout in which the smarter, more prepared fighter won. Diaz never adjusted to Condit's game; he failed to cut off the angles and allowed Condit to slip out once it got to the cage, and because of that he wasn't allowed to fight his fight. To deride Condit and say he was "running away" all fight is a completely false and ridiculous statement.

Condit out-struck Diaz in four of the five rounds, yet he ran away? No, Condit had a brilliant game plan, and he followed it to the letter against a fighter who is nearly impossible to stop. By avoiding Diaz's traps, Condit was able to reset himself in order to effectively employ his offense for much of the fight, and he adjusted midway through the third round to be even more effective in how he delivered his offense. It was an excellent and intelligent performance from Condit to capture the Interim Welterweight Championship, and to dump on his performance the way many have is to completely ignore the facts of the fight.