Penick's Take
UFC 141 "LESNAR VS. OVEREEM" PREVIEW: Penick's breakdown and fight picks for final UFC event of 2011
Dec 30, 2011 - 12:30:07 PM UFC 141 "LESNAR VS. OVEREEM" PREVIEW: Penick's breakdown and fight picks for final UFC event of 2011

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

The UFC closes out 2011 with a bang on Friday night, bringing another massive heavyweight fight into the Octagon in Brock Lesnar vs. Alistair Overeem. The former Champions in the UFC and Strikeforce, respectively, are fighting for a shot at UFC Heavyweight Champ Junior dos Santos next year, and each enter the event with a lot to prove. Additionally, a fantastic co-main event matchup sees Donald Cerrone attempt to win five UFC fights in one calendar year as he takes on Nate Diaz, and the rest of the card is filled with a number of solid matchups. Here's what's on track for Friday night in Las Vegas:

Brock Lesnar vs. Alistair Overeem (Heavyweight)

This is such a great heavyweight fight. There's no question about what either fighter wants to do in this bout; Overeem, despite a history of submission wins, wants to knock Brock Lesnar out, and wants to test what is seen as Lesnar's biggest weakness.

Lesnar wants to show that he's the superior fighter with his grappling game, and will be out to take Overeem to the ground. While it may not be in his best interest to strike with Overeem, Lesnar's power shouldn't be overlooked, either. Though his striking game isn't anywhere near as crisp or polished as the K-1 Champ, he can do a lot of damage if he does land.

But that's not where Lesnar's major strengths lie. He'll be looking to score takedowns, control Overeem's hips and land strikes on the ground. Overeem believes he can stop those takedowns and force Lesnar to strike with him, which again would be to his advantage. However, Lesnar has taken down every fighter he's fought in the UFC, with three of them being former collegiate and high level wrestlers.

Lesnar ran into trouble in the striking game against both Shane Carwin and Cain Velasquez because of their wrestling. Their ability to hold off Lesnar's takedowns, and get up from them when they were taken down, allowed them to get off more strikes and frustrate Lesnar in the early going. In Velasquez's case that was all he needed.

In this fight, Overeem may think he's going to stop Lesnar from taking him down, but he has simply never faced a wrestler like Lesnar before. Lesnar needs to avoid getting clipped and getting ahead of himself in the early going, and if he can score the takedown he'll be able to keep Overeem on the ground.

If that happens, Lesnar's ability to wear Overeem out with top control and ground and pound will be the big key to the fight. Overeem's cardio is simply not going to be on Lesnar's level in this fight. He may not gas in the first round, but if Lesnar gets him down, you can be sure the energy will be sapped by the second. Overeem is absolutely capable of blitzing Lesnar early on, but with a lot of his most dangerous work coming in the clinch, that would open him up to takedowns as well. There are simply too many ways Lesnar can bring the fight to where he wants to compete, and if he can implement his game plan, this is his fight to lose.

PREDICTION: Lesnar by TKO in the third round

Donald Cerrone vs. Nate Diaz (Lightweight)

Donald Cerrone turned a corner in his MMA career last September in his rematch with Jamie Varner. He had always been talented with his submission game, and had begun showing signs of improvement in his striking game as well through his WEC run, but in a three round decimation of Varner he added some solid offensive wrestling as well. His ability to implement his gameplan in a fight carried over into his next five fights, and he's been increasingly impressive in each outing.

Diaz has hopped from lightweight up to welterweight, and back down again after some very inconsistent performances. Much like his brother, he's immensely tough, and has a good striking game and good submissions as well. However, while he looked great against Takanori Gomi in his return to the lightweight division in his last outing, he hasn't shown an ability to put together those types of performances each time out.

Cerrone can press the pace, work that offensive wrestling game against the cage, strike with Diaz standing, and really control where and how the fight unfolds. Diaz isn't a fighter that gets stopped, and I don't see that changing here, but Cerrone should be able to do more than enough to win two rounds and keep his momentum going.

PREDICTION: Cerrone via unanimous decision

Jon Fitch vs. Johny Hendricks (Welterweight)

Fitch is returning from shoulder surgery, and this will be his first fight since a draw with B.J. Penn in February. Hendricks is the most decorated wrestler that Fitch has fought in the UFC, and he's probably the best in that front Fitch has faced since his loss to GSP in 2008.

Hendricks takes another step up in competition after scoring consecutive wins over T.J. Waldburger and Mike Pierce, but his loss to Rick Story last December stands out coming into this fight.

Hendricks is the better striker coming in, but Fitch has a very well rounded game that has kept him successful in the UFC and has held him atop the rest of the welterweight division not named GSP for some time.

Fitch is likely in for one of his toughest fights in the UFC here, as Hendricks hits hard and will be able to challenge anything he does on the ground. However, Fitch has not yet lost to anyone other than St-Pierre in the UFC, and he should be able to score points with his grappling and control to take two rounds from Hendricks.

PREDICTION: Fitch via unanimous decision

Vladimir Matyushenko vs. Alexander Gustafsson (Light Heavyweight)

This is the fight I'm most looking forward to outside of the top two fights on this card. It was originally scheduled for UFC 133 in August before Matyushenko came up injured, but it's still a fantastic matchup that serves as a huge test for the rising Gustafsson.

Matyushenko has gone 4-1 since returning to the UFC in September of 2009, and his sole loss in that stretch came against now-UFC Champ Jon Jones. He won two decisions prior to that, but has since knocked out two straight opponents in a combined two minutes and 40 seconds. His most recent performance saw him knock out Jason Brilz in just 20 seconds at UFC 129 in April.

Gustafsson has had a similar UFC run, but as a 24-year-old rising star, he's got a high ceiling in his career still. His sole UFC loss came by submission against undefeated Phil Davis, and his four UFC wins have all come by stoppage. On top of that, he's never left the second round in his career.

Matyushenko has the experience, skills, and power to stop Gustafsson in this fight. It's a very real possibility. But Gustafsson has shown an immensely exciting and fairly well-rounded game overall over his five UFC fights, and off a dominant win over Matt Hamill in August, Gustafsson is rightfully favored in this one.

PREDICTION: Gustafsson via TKO in the second round

Nam Phan vs. Jim Hettes (Featherweight)

Phan should be 2-1 in his UFC career, as he was robbed in his first fight against Leonard Garcia, but as it stands he's just 1-2. He avenged that "loss" to Garcia in his last fight, though he almost gave that fight away in the third round when he decided to trade punches with the wildly swinging Garcia.

Hettes moved his career record to a perfect 9-0 in his UFC debut in August, submitting Phan's fellow-TUF 12 competitor Alex "Bruce Leroy" Caceres in the second round. Hettes will try to bring this fight to the ground, as submissions are where his game is at.

However, Phan is a black belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu, and is a much better striker than Hettes into this fight. Unless he finds a way to catch Phan, who by the way has never once been submitted in 26 fights, then Hettes is going to have a rough night.

PREDICTION: Phan via TKO in the second round

=====Preliminary Card Quick Picks=====

* Ross Pearson over Junior Assuncao via unanimous decision
* Anthony Njokuani over Danny Castillo via TKO in the second round
* Dong Hyun Kim over Sean Pierson via TKO in the second round
* Jacob Volkmann over Efrain Escudero via submission in the second round
* Matt Riddle over Luis Ramos via TKO in the third round
* Diego Nunes over Manny Gamburyan via unanimous decision


=====Confidence and Betting Contest Picks=====

11 - Cerrone - UD
10 - Lesnar - TKO RD 3
9 - Phan - TKO RD 2
8 - Fitch - UD
7 - Gustafsson - TKO RD 2
6- Volkmann - SUB RD 2
5 - Pearson - UD
4 - Njokuani - TKO RD 2
3 - Kim - TKO RD 2
2 - Nunes - UD
1 - Riddle - TKO RD 3

$400 on Lesnar
$250 on Volkmann
$150 on Njokuani
$200 parlay on Lesnar, Volkmann, Njokuani