Penick's Take
UFC 140 PREVIEW: Penick's breakdown and fight picks for "Jones vs. Machida" event in Toronto
Dec 10, 2011 - 3:00:50 PM UFC 140 PREVIEW: Penick's breakdown and fight picks for "Jones vs. Machida" event in Toronto

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

The UFC returns to Toronto for the second time in 2011 this Saturday night, bringing UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Jon Jones to town for his fourth fight of the year. The 12-fight card features a lot of very interesting matchups, with a number of veterans and newcomers filling out the field. Here's what's on tap for the main card, as well as some predictions for the undercard as well:

Jon Jones vs. Lyoto Machida (Light Heavyweight Championship)

Jon Jones has been on an absolute tear since debuting in the UFC in 2008, and he's already racked up an 8-1 mark inside the Octagon. That sole loss was his disqualification against Matt Hamill, and even as he's faced tougher and tougher competition - capturing the UFC Light Heavyweight Title along the way - we still have not seen him remotely in danger in a fight.

Machida had similarly gone through his competition without suffering much damage, but that went out the window in his two fights with Mauricio "Shogun" Rua.

Jones' combination of speed, size, wrestling, improved striking, and vicious ground attack makes him a nightmare stylistically for anyone at 205 lbs. He's capable of negating Machida's counter-attacks with his reach and clinch game, and while Machida's no slouch on the ground and is adept in taking opponents down himself, there's no reason to believe that's what he'll be able to do to the Champion.

Machida's striking game is very good, and he's unorthodox in his game enough that there are potential intangibles that give him some type of edge in the fight. However, Jones doesn't appear to be slowing down in the least, and this should be another signature win for him in 2011.

PREDICTION: Jones via TKO in the third round

Frank Mir vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (Heavyweight)

The first fight between Mir and Nogueira was shocking in that Nogueira had survived similar beatings in his career, and Mir wasn't expected to roll over him as easily as he did. Three years later, Nogueira hopes to show that the first fight wasn't him at his best, and after a a big knockout win over Brendan Schaub he'd like to keep his momentum going.

Unfortunately, the only thing that's really changed in the time since their last bout is that Mir has improved his striking game even further. Nogueira takes a ton of punishment in almost every fight he's ever been in, and his ability to absorb that punishment has waned over the past several years.

Even if Nogueira is a little faster and a little healthier than he's been in recent years, Mir is the better fighter in 2011, and we're bound to see a similar outcome to their first matchup.

PREDICTION: Mir via TKO in the second round

Tito Ortiz vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (Light Heavyweight)

After fighting just twice in a three year span due to a multitude of injuries, Tito Ortiz fights for the third time this year when he takes on "Lil Nog." He's split his two appearances in the Octagon this year, scoring his first win in over four years over Ryan Bader and losing in a rematch to Rashad Evans on short notice.

Nogueira has lost two straight fights by getting out-wrestled by Ryan Bader and Phil Davis, which hasn't allowed him to utilize his striking game. Ortiz is a historically good wrestler, but the big question into this fight is whether or not he can do to Nogueira what Bader and Davis did.

I don't see that being the case, and I think this is a chance for Nogueira to bounce back with a big performance. Ortiz is mentally close to checking out of the sport, publicly discussing his plans to leave the sport after one more fight, and I don't think this one's going to be a win for him.

PREDICTION: Nogueira via unanimous decision

Claude Patrick vs. Brian Ebersole (Welterweight)

This fight was originally supposed to be between Ebersole and Rory MacDonald, a much more intriguing fight than what we've got here, but this is still a very solid welterweight fight between two very solid veteran fighters.

Ebersole's been impressive in his two fights in the UFC, handing Chris Lytle a decision loss in February and then stopping Dennis Hallman at UFC 103 this summer. For the 31-year-old, it's been a year of big payoffs for a long career on the outskirts of the leading MMA organization. The two wins have him at 13-1 over his last 14 fights, a run that has come in just over three years.

That run is especially impressive when you take a look at Patrick's 14-1 mark, a record he's reached over a near decade-long career. Patrick has won 13 straight fights, including three in the Octagon.

Both are talented grapplers, but the edge I think goes to Ebersole. The experience factor will definitely play into this matchup, and Ebersole's sole loss in the last four years was against Hector Lombard. Patrick's a good fighter, but I don't think he'll take out Ebersole as a replacement.

PREDICTION: Ebersole via unanimous decision

Mark Hominick vs. Chan Sung Jung (Featherweight)

Two of Jung's three fights in the U.S. have come against Leonard Garcia, and the other is a knockout loss to George Roop, so it's hard to really determine just what level he's really at right now. One thing is for certain, though, he's one of the more exciting fighters in the UFC.

Hominick fights for the first time since a five round loss to Jose Aldo for the title in April, but it's also his first fight since losing his longtime trainer and friend Shawn Tompkins.

The obvious edge in this fight goes to Hominick and his striking game. He's a very accurate puncher, and he is good at mixing up his attack and constantly keeping himself moving. He's also no slouch on the ground, and will be a huge test for "The Korean Zombie."

Jung's got an underutilized ground game that may surprise some, and he's fearless in his striking game as well, but I've got to give the nod to Hominick in this matchup. His striking game is really good, and if Jung stands and trades with him like he did with Garcia and Roop it's going to be a rough night.

PREDICTION: Hominick via TKO in the third round

======Preliminary Card Quick Picks======

* Krzysztof Soszysnki over Igor Pokrajac via unanimous decision
* Jared Hamman over Constantinos Philippou via TKO in the second round
* John Makdessi over Dennis Hallman via TKO in the third round
* Walel Watson over Yves Jabouin via submission in the first round
* Nik Lentz over Mark Bocek via unanimous decision
* Jake Hecht over Rich Attonito via submission in the third round
* John Cholish over Mitch Clarke via submission in the second round

======Confidence and Betting Contest Picks======

12 - Jones - TKO RD 3
11 - Mir - TKO RD 2
10 - Lil Nog - UD
9 - Hominick - TKO RD 3
8 - Makdessi - TKO RD 3
7 - Lentz - UD
6 - Watson - SUB RD 1
5 - Hamman - TKO RD 2
4 - Soszynski - UD
3 - Ebersole - UD
2 - Cholish - SUB RD 2
1 - Hecht - SUB RD 3

$400 on Watson
$300 on Lentz
$100 on Hecht
$200 parlay on Watson, Lentz, and Makdessi