Penick's Take
UFC 139 PREVIEW: Penick's breakdown and fight predictions for "Shogun vs. Hendo" event in San Jose
Nov 19, 2011 - 11:30:38 AM UFC 139 PREVIEW: Penick's breakdown and fight predictions for "Shogun vs. Hendo" event in San Jose

DISCUSS ALL THIS IN OUR NEW MMATORCH FORUM

...OH, ONE MORE THING - PLEASE BOOKMARK US & VISIT DAILY!

By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

Though there hasn't been as much attention paid to it in the midst of a very busy UFC schedule over the last couple months of the year, Saturday's UFC 139 pay-per-view event is still a fantastic fight card on paper with some highly entertaining fights scheduled throughout the night's event. With Dan Henderson making his return to the UFC in the main event, a number one contender fight in the bantamweight division, and some more fights sure to entertain, there's something for everyone on this card. Here's what's on tap Saturday night:

Mauricio "Shogun" Rua vs. Dan Henderson (Light Heavyweight)

It's amazing to realize that these two have not crossed paths before now, considering they've competed in the same weight class (for the most part) at the same time in both Pride and the UFC. But it's only now, as they're each vying for a shot at the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship, that they'll finally meet.

Rua is just a fight removed from being the Champion himself, losing the belt to Jon Jones back in March. The always dangerous striker has had questions about his health lingering since undergoing yet another knee injury last year, and with a sluggish performance against Jones they've stayed prevalent all year.

His fight with Forrest Griffin saw him score another TKO win, but with Griffin appearing disinterested in being in the cage that night and the fight not lasting very long, the status of recovery on his knee is still a question mark coming in.

But while "Shogun's" injuries have led to inconsistent performances in the Octagon, Dan Henderson has remained steadily one of the more consistent performers in the sport, and at 41 he seems to be in the midst of one of his strongest career stretches.

Henderson left the UFC in 2008 when the two sides couldn't come to terms on a new contract, but his run in the organization was stamped with one of the all-time most memorable knockouts in the history of the sport against Michael Bisping.

Though he failed to finish Jake Shields in his Strikeforce debut, subsequently losing a decision to snap a three fight win streak, Henderson came back strong at 205 lbs., knocking out "Babalu" Sobral, "Feijao" Cavalcante, and Fedor Emelianenko in consecutive bouts.

This fight pits Henderson's brutal right hand and incredible durability against "Shogun's" vicious attack and questionable conditioning. They've got five rounds in which to play this fight out, and it's hard to run with Rua despite the rebound win over Griffin in August. Henderson's chin is simply too reliable, and he's fully capable of setting a grueling pace for Rua that can wear him down. We haven't seen Rua's cardio truly live past a couple of his bad performances, and Henderson's got the skills and style of fighting to make this a tough road to victory for Rua.

Ultimately, I think Henderson's got one last run at the title in him, and this is going to be his chance to showcase that.

PREDICTION: Henderson via TKO in the second round

Wanderlei Silva vs. Cung Le (Middleweight)

There aren't any questions about what type of fight we're going to see in this one. "The Axe Murderer", despite knockout losses in four of his last eight fights and only two wins in that stretch, will come after Le attempting to score a brawling and brutal knockout before Le has a chance to deliver one of his own.

That's the gameplan Silva had against Chris Leben, and though it didn't work out for him, that doesn't mean it will change into this fight.

Le makes his UFC debut after a 7-1 run in the sport, though his dual career as an actor has not allowed him to really ever reach his potential in MMA. His San Shou background makes him one of the more entertaining strikers to watch in the cage, and outside of getting caught against Scott Smith in their first bout, Le hasn't shown much in the way of weakness in his striking game.

Because Silva's not the type of fighter that will be looking to take Le down, and he's likely not going to do anything but go all out in the striking department, I like Le in a big way in this bout. He's got the power and ability to knock Silva out, and Silva's chin is going to be a concern in any fight he takes going forward.

PREDICTION: Le via KO in the first round

Urijah Faber vs. Brian Bowles (Bantamweight)

Two former WEC Champions square off to gain another fight with Dominick Cruz here, as Faber and Bowles will look to determine the number one contender in the bantamweight division in this bout.

Faber is coming off a loss to Cruz in their rematch this past July in a close five round title fight. Though Cruz ultimately was awarded the fight by the judges, Faber knocked him down several times in the fight and had an argument for several rounds as well.

Bowles was out of action for a year after losing to Cruz in the WEC, as he broke his hands in the bout and couldn't continue. He's bounced back with a submission of Damacio Page and a decision over Takeya Mizugaki.

Bowles possesses some very heavy hands for the bantamweight division, but it's been his submission game that has most been on display throughout his career, with six submission wins to his credit.

That skill set plays directly into what Faber is good at, however, as in similar fashion he's a striker with an underrated ground game. Coming down from the featherweight division, Faber is the stronger of the two, and he gets the wrestling edge as well. If Faber can avoid getting cracked by Bowles, as he did in the first fight with Mike Brown, this is a fight he should win to get one more fight with Dominick Cruz.

PREDICTION: Faber via unanimous decision

Martin Kampmann vs. Rick Story (Welterweight)

Rick Story's loss to Charlie Brenneman in June was due in large part to being unprepared for the matchup on a day's notice. He entered the weekend expecting to take on Nate Marquardt, and he prepared for that fight on short notice as it was.

It was simply a bad idea to accept a fight like that in that situation. He went from having nothing to lose against Marquardt on short notice to nothing to gain against Brenneman, and he wasn't prepared for the wrestling game Brenneman brought to the cage, leading to him losing two rounds and a decision.

Kampmann's last two losses have come by close decisions in fights he's felt should have gone his way, and while he definitely had a right to be upset by the decision against Diego Sanchez, the loss to Jake Shields was all because he managed to do even less than Shields in the bout.

Kampmann has gotten away from the dangerous submission game that for a time was his forte, and his striking game hasn't led to any finishes since UFC 93 in 2009.

Story isn't a fighter that's going to be finished easily, and he knows how to control the pace and location of his fights with a very solid clinch and wrestling game. He's got some good ground and pound when he gets the fight to the ground as well. Overall, his game should be enough to overwhelm Kampmann and keep him on his back or against the cage defending, and that in turn would edge the fight in Story's favor.

PREDICTION: Story via unanimous decision

Stephan Bonnar vs. Kyle Kingsbury (Light Heavyweight)

Stephan Bonnar returns to action for the first time in 2011, while Kyle Kingsbury looks to keep his winning streak alive in the UFC.

Bonnar, despite a very adept ground game, is often more than willing to engage in striking battles with his opponents, and that's likely what we're going to see here against Kingsbury.

The Ultimate Fighter season eight vet Kingsbury has won four straight in the UFC, and is coming off a brutal, but close, back and forth brawl with Fabio Maldonado.

This is a fight where both fighters are going to leave everything in the cage, and they'll battle to the last second. It might end up sloppy and exhausting for both, but it's likely to be violent fun as well, and I'll give the edge to the younger fighter in this one.

PREDICTION: Kingsbury via unanimous decision

======Spike TV Preliminary Card======

Ryan Bader vs. Jason Brilz (Light Heavyweight)

Ryan Bader was in a great spot entering 2011. The Ultimate Fighter season eight winner was undefeated, and had just beaten Antonio Rogerio Nogueira in September of 2010. A fight with Jon Jones in February at UFC 126 was an opportunity to prove himself to be the top young prospect in the light heavyweight division, but instead it was the start of a very bad year for him.

Bader was beaten handily by Jones, and then in a shocking fight in July, he was submitted by Tito Ortiz in the first round - Ortiz's first win in almost five years.

Brilz is coming off a bit of a shocking result of his own, as his return from injury didn't go very well for him this April. He had impressed in a loss to Nogueira in May of 2010, going to a split decision and having many believe he won the bout; but in his return fight, he was knocked out by Vladimir Matyushenko in just 20 seconds at UFC 129.

This is a fight that is made for Bader to get back on track. Brilz is a very solid fighter, but the things he does well inside of the cage are also things that Bader as well, and in some ways does better. If Bader loses his third straight fight here, it will make for a bad end to an already awful year for him.

PREDICTION: Bader via TKO in the second round

Michael McDonald vs. Alex Soto (Bantamweight)

20-year-old Michael McDonald has already made an impression on UFC brass, and the bantamweight is winning over fans as well with his fun fights with Edwin Figueroa and Chris Cariaso in the UFC.

Soto is making his UFC debut on short notice as an injury replacement, and he'll hope to keep his record with a "0" in the loss column in this one.

It's hard to give a debuting fighter much credit in a bout like this, as he's not only under the UFC's bright lights for the first time, but it's also his television debut with the UFC and it's on short notice against a legitimate prospect. Though he could shock everyone with a big performance as a huge underdog, it's hard to see that happening.

PREDICTION: McDonald via TKO in the second round

======Facebook Prelims Quick Picks======

* Chris Weidman over Tom Lawlor via unanimous decision
* Rafael dos Anjos over Gleison Tibau via unanimous decision
* Miguel Torres over Nick Pace via TKO in the second round
* Matt Brown over Seth Baczysnki via TKO in the third round
* Danny Castillo over Shamar Bailey via unanimous decision

======Confidence and Betting Contest Picks======

Note: Contests this week also include Bellator's Lightweight Title fight on Saturday between Eddie Alvarez and Michael Chandler

13 - Le - KO RD 1
12 - Faber - UD
11 - Torres - TKO RD 2
10 - Story - UD
9 - Hendo - TKO RD 2
8 - Kingsbury - UD
7 - McDonald - TKO RD 2
6 - Alvarez - SUB RD 3
5 - Bader - TKO RD 2
4 - Dos Anjos - UD
3 - Castillo - UD
2 - Weidman - UD
1 - Brown - TKO RD 2

$500 on Hendo
$200 on dos Anjos
$100 on Le
$200 parlay on Hendo, dos Anjos, Le