Penick's Take
UFC 138 Preview: Penick's breakdown and fight predictions for "Leben vs. Munoz" event in England
Nov 5, 2011 - 9:30:50 AM UFC 138 Preview: Penick's breakdown and fight predictions for "Leben vs. Munoz" event in England

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

The UFC returns to England on Saturday for the first and only time of 2011, and it's a card that really hasn't gotten much attention with the UFC's Fox debut a week later and other major events surrounding it. Of course, that's also due in large part to the UFC not giving it much attention themselves.

Bringing Chris Leben into the main event just one fight removed from his knockout loss to Brian Stann doesn't give UK fans a "big fight" feel to the headliner. That's not even to mention that the last time Leben fought in the U.K., he lost to Michael Bisping in a headlining bout and then got popped for steroids.

This is one of the UFC's weakest lineups of the year, especially for a numbered card, made all the weaker by the loss of one of the better fights on the card in Paul Taylor vs. Anthony Njokuani. Then there's the fact that Spike TV is still not making these overseas events available live, and it makes for an event that is not going to be seen by all that many people on Saturday night. Still, there is some entertainment to be had, and at least a couple of good matchups on the card with relevance in their respective divisions. Here's what's on tap:

Chris Leben vs. Mark Munoz (Middleweight)

Mark Munoz's wrestling game gives him an edge in this fight, as he's got the grappling ability to take Leben down and control both the pace and location of the fight. Leben's got a ground game of his own, but he can be taken down, and if Munoz presses the pace in that manner he can score points and win rounds.

However, Munoz likes to utilize his striking game more often than not, and will absolutely get into a firefight with Leben - even if it's only for a brief time - during the fight. Considering they've got 25 minutes with which to hit one another repeatedly, that will give Leben a lot of time to crack Munoz, who has been at the very least hurt by strikes against a number of his opponents.

While Leben did suffer a TKO loss to Brian Stann just two fights ago, that was an extremely rare result for "The Crippler," whose only other TKO loss came against Anderson Silva. Munoz has power, but I don't know that we've seen that type of power from him. He's favored to win, but Leben's got a lot of time to find his range and land the knockout blow, and I think he just might do it.

PREDICTION: Leben via TKO in the third round

Brad Pickett vs. Renan Barao (Bantamweight)

The best fight on the card for me, England's own Brad "One Punch" Pickett makes his UFC debut after a 3-1 mark in the WEC, while Barao looks to continue his 27-fight unbeaten streak. Pickett's got some of the best wrestling for a fighter out of England, and has a very adept submission game as well.

However, he'll be matched in that department by Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt Barao, who holds 12 submission victories in his career. Combined, Pickett and Barao have stopped 34 fights inside the distance, and both bring a fast-paced style that should make for the most entertaining fight on this card.

The big question coming into the fight is how much Pickett suffers from cage rust, as he's been out for 11 months due to injury. Barao hasn't been beaten since his professional debut, but he's also fought almost his entire career in Brazil.

Pickett's performances against Demetrious Johnson and Scott Jorgensen show that he can hang with high level opponents, while he himself marks the highest level opponent that Barao has faced. It should be a highly competitive fight, but I think Pickett can do enough to hand Barao his first loss since 2005.

PREDICTION: Pickett via unanimous decision

Thiago Alves vs. Papy Abedi (Welterweight)

Abedi makes his UFC debut here after posting a perfect 8-0 record in Europe, but he hasn't fought in over a year coming into this matchup.

Alves has lost three of four fights coming into the bout, most recently giving up two rounds to Rick Story in May and losing a decision despite a stronger third round. Alves is a good striker, but he's struggled with wrestlers negating his stand up game and thus hasn't finished a fight in over three years.

That's likely to change in this fight, as Abedi will look to exchange with him on the feet. Abedi's got the power to make this a very risky fight for Alves, but Alves has a very good chin and has only ever been finished with strikes once, and that was through an accumulation of ground and pound from Jon Fitch in their first fight.

I like Alves' power in a straight striking matchup against most at welterweight, and he should be able to pick up a big win here.

PREDICTION: Alves via TKO in the second round

Terry Etim vs. Edward Faaloloto (Lightweight)

Etim had risen quickly up the lightweight ladder in 2008 and 2009, winning four straight fights after consecutive decision losses early the previous year, but after a loss to Rafael dos Anjos in April of 2010, he's been sidelined by numerous injuries.

Now finally making his return after an 18-month absence, Etim's hoping to regain some of the spark he showed just a couple of years ago.

Faaloloto has lost both of his fights under the Zuffa banner, including a first round TKO loss to TUF 12 runner-up Michael Johnson in his UFC debut back in June. The only advantage he truly has in the matchup is the fact that he's the fresher fighter. Other than that, Etim's got a significant height and reach advantage, has four times the fights under his belt, as well as a very good finishing acumen. Though he's got to battle cage rust, Etim should be able to thrill his home country crowd with a good return win.

PREDICTION: Etim via submission in the first round

Cyrille Diabate vs. Anthony Perosh (Light Heavyweight)

Diabate's got the clear advantage in the striking department, while Perosh has a clear advantage on the ground. However, getting the fight to the ground isn't an easy prospect for Perosh in this matchup, and thus he could easily be in for a brutal experience on the feet.

Diabate should be able to dictate the pace of striking exchanges in the fight, and if he can find his range, keep himself standing and work his strikes, he shouldn't have much of a problem in this fight.

PREDICTION: Diabate via TKO in the first round

======FACEBOOK PRELIMINARY CARD QUICK PICKS======

* Justin Edwards over John Maguire via decision
* Michihiro Omigawa over Jason Young via submission in the second round
* Philip De Fries over Rob Broughton via submission in the first round
* Che Mills over Chris Cope via decision
* Chris Cariaso over Vaughan Lee via TKO in the second round