Penick's Take
UFC 137 PREVIEW: Penick's breakdown and fight predictions for "Penn vs. Diaz" event in Las Vegas
Oct 29, 2011 - 3:30:24 PM UFC 137 PREVIEW: Penick's breakdown and fight predictions for "Penn vs. Diaz" event in Las Vegas

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief



B.J. Penn vs. Nick Diaz (Welterweight)

Though the circumstances surrounding the booking of this fight certainly put a damper on the initial excitement for the fight, this bout between Penn and Diaz is one of most intriguing fights available in the welterweight division.

Diaz has had a lot of success outside of the UFC over the last several years, scoring highlight reel victories in entertaining fights from EliteXC to DREAM and Strikeforce. His 2011 wins over Evangelista "Cyborg" Santos and Paul Daley were thrilling displays, and he's had good performances against a number of other opponents, but this is the first time in a long time that he's gone up against a fighter considered to be "elite."

For Penn, after going to a draw with Jon Fitch in February and having an exciting matchup on paper with Carlos Condit ripped away from him, he now gets to go into the cage against a fighter that simply doesn't have boring fights.

Diaz is going to attempt to use his reach to damage Penn with his relentless striking attack, but should Penn bring the fight to the ground he's got a dangerous jiu jitsu game off his back as well and won't be afraid to fight there.

On Penn's end, putting Diaz on his back and utilizing his own top game may be a safer strategy than going toe to toe with Diaz on the feet, but his boxing game is very good in its own right and he doesn't fear the firefight.

Diaz has a lot of fans that believe he can beat anyone at anytime. The problem is, we haven't seen him against elite competition in quite some time, and even during his exciting Strikeforce run, he has had problems against fighters that will strike with him.

He was losing to Santos in January after getting brutalized in the first and second rounds by a series of leg kicks and good, hard hitting combinations, but managed to goad him to the ground and lock on a submission at the end of the second round. Against Daley, he got dropped a couple of times in the round, but was able to recover and send Daley to the canvas and get the stoppage in the first.

The point is, while Diaz has a high level of offensive output, he allows himself to get hit entirely too much to be really successful standing against a puncher like Penn. He hasn't been stopped by anything other than cuts in nine years, but he's come close to having the lights turned off.

If Penn can knock him loopy and drop him to the mat, he's got the ground game to keep him down and to attempt to work him from there. If the fight gets finished, I'd imagine it would be Penn dropping Diaz and then getting to a submission before Diaz knows where he is, but as it stands I think two rounds of Penn connecting will give him an edge, even if he fades down the stretch.

PREDICTION: Penn via unanimous decision

Matt Mitrione vs. Cheick Kongo (Heavyweight)

Mitrione, a former defensive player in the National Football League, has spent his entire MMA career within the UFC. He entered The Ultimate Fighter's 10th season with no professional experience, and has won five straight fights to begin his career in the UFC.

Kongo has almost five times as many fights as Mitrione, yet enters the event a somewhat surprising underdog. The 6'4" Frenchman has a good chin, though he can be cracked, and a very good striking game himself. His weakness has always been fighters that can put him on his back, though in a couple of his more recent fights he's found himself getting hit often on the feet.

He scored a huge come from behind knockout on an overzealous Pat Barry in June, who had knocked him down twice and was looking for the kill, so even if Mitrione gets him hurt in this fight he'll need to be cautious.

However, Mitrione's inexperience doesn't mean he doesn't deserve to be the favorite. With the way Barry dropped Kongo, not to mention memory of Frank Mir brutalizing him in the not-so-distant past, Mitrione's heavy hands and tough chin match up well against Kongo.

Both fighters are going to get hit in this fight. Both fighters are going to get hurt in this fight. The winner will have to go through whatever their opponent offers them and continue on, and at this stage, Mitrione's got what it takes to keep his run alive. It's not going to be easy, and he may have to survive some big shots, but I think Mitrione takes this one.

PREDICTION: Mitrione via TKO in the second round

Roy Nelson vs. Mirko Cro Cop (Heavyweight)

Both Nelson and Cro Cop are looking for redemption in this bout. Nelson for an embarrassing performance against Frank Mir, one caused in major part to a decision to fight while battling pneumonia, and Cro Cop for consecutive knockout losses to Mir and Brendan Schaub, both of which came in fairly ugly fights.

Cro Cop's UFC career has been a disappointment, there's just no other way to put it. He's had a few victories in the Octagon, but he's been nothing close to the fighter he was in his prime in Pride, and has just looked off in his most recent run, which was most apparent in fights against Junior dos Santos and Frank Mir.

He's also at the end of his career here into this fight. He's said multiple times that, win or lose, it's likely his last bout, and he's out to have an entertaining fight with Nelson. Because of how badly received the Mir fight was, it's likely that Cro Cop is going out on his shield in this fight, to give the best show he can even if it means going head first (literally) into danger.

The key factor to consider in this fight is that Nelson is nearly impossible to finish, and Cro Cop has been stopped in brutal fashion numerous times. Nelson hits very hard himself, but also has the chin to absorb a ridiculous amount of punishment, whereas that's likely not the case with Cro Cop. I think we'll get a fight out of the Croatian, but unfortunately he's past the point in his career where he's truly going to have much success in the cage. I hope he can prove everyone wrong, as it would be enjoyable for fans to see him regain some of the aura he's lost in the UFC, it's just not likely in the cards.

PREDICTION: Nelson via TKO in the second round

Scott Jorgensen vs. Jeff Curran (Bantamweight)

Longtime veteran Curran makes just his second appearance ever in the UFC in this bout, and it comes nearly eight years after the first. The always competitive "Big Frog" had a rough run the last time he was under the Zuffa banner, dropping four straight fights in the WEC, and his road doesn't get any easier with this fight.

Jorgensen is one fight removed from challenging for the Bantamweight Championship, and that one fight was a vicious first round knockout in the guard of Ken Stone. Jorgensen's got the speed edge in the matchup, but Jorgensen's got a good well-rounded game and a lot of experience on his side as well.

Curran enters as a heavy underdog, and Jorgensen should be the favorite based on their respective results recently, but Curran can't be counted out. He's going to be a stiff test for Jorgensen and will push him throughout the entirety of the fight.

He may not take the edge in the bout, but he's going to make Jorgensen earn a victory over him.

PREDICTION: Jorgensen via unanimous decision

George Roop vs. Hatsu Hioki (Featherweight)

Hioki, considered widely to be one of the top featherweight fighters in the world, makes his UFC debut in this bout. However, because his record was built in Japan there is trepidation as to whether or not he can be successful in the U.S.

Roop marks a very good litmus test for that point. He's had some very solid wins over the last couple of years, including a nice head kick knockout of Chan Sung Jung and his three round decimation of Josh Grispi; but he's also been stopped by Mark Hominick in quick fashion and has seven career losses on his record.

Hioki has just four decision losses on his record, the most recent being a split to Michihiro Omigawa two years ago. He's won nine of his last 10 and is 12-1-1 dating back to 2007. If any fighter is poised to continue success begun in Japan, it's Hioki, and he also has a very good skill set that happens to have been Roop's downfall on numerous occasions.

12 of Hioki's career wins have come by submission, almost all of them being of the triangle choke/armbar variety. Armlocks haven't been kind to Roop in the past, and it's something he'll need to constantly be wary of.

Overall this should be a competitive and entertaining featherweight fight to kick off the pay-per-view broadcast, and I think Hioki can avoid the pitfalls that have hit a number of his colleagues from Japanese organizations.

PREDICTION: Hioki via submission in the third round

======SPIKE TV PRELIMINARY CARD======

Donald Cerrone vs. Dennis Siver (Lightweight)

Dennis Siver has been an interesting success story over the last couple of years. His first stint in the UFC had him out of the organization after four fights when he managed to win just one of those bouts. After a win outside the organization, he got a call back to return, and has won seven of his last eight in increasingly impressive fashion.

His sole loss in that run was a decision to Ross Pearson, but he's rattled off four consecutive wins since that bout, including two very impressive performances this year over George Sotiropoulos and Matt Wiman.

Cerrone enters this event as one of the hottest fighters in the division. After suffering a second loss to Ben Henderson last April, Cerrone has put together a highly impressive five fight winning streak, looking great against Jamie Varner, Paul Kelly, and most recently Charles Oliveira, with less inspiring wins over Chris Horodecki and Vagner Rocha sprinkled in.

Not only does Cerrone have the ground advantage over Siver in this fight, but he's got a five inch height advantage, bringing along a significant reach advantage as well. With his striking game continuing to improve and his ground game as dangerous as just about any, Cerrone can continue his rapid ascent up the lightweight ladder in this fight.

Siver's been very good as of late, and finds ways to take his opponents out of their games, but that's going to be a tough task against Cerrone. Cerrone's got a very good chin and has improved a lot of his weaknesses, making big strides specifically in the last year. This is Cerrone's fight to lose, and I don't think he will.

PREDICTION: Cerrone via submission in the second round

Tyson Griffin vs. Bart Palaszewski (Bantamweight)

Griffin halted a three fight losing streak when he dropped to the featherweight division this June, defeating Manny Gamburyan by decision. He was one of the more successful fighters in the lightweight division from his debut in 2006 until his slide that began in 2010, but while his fights were relatively exciting, his style didn't lead to many finishes and essentially you know what you're going to get from a Tyson Griffin fight.

Palaszewski had an up and down run in the WEC, and now finally gets to make his UFC debut as he drops to the featherweight division himself. He had won three straight WEC fights before a split decision loss to Kamal Shalorus, and he's likely a big underdog only because of his layoff at this point.

He's got a good striking game and will be a tough fight, and if Griffin gets too overconfident in his striking game he could run into a bad punch like he did against Takanori Gomi, and he needs to avoid that. He'll likely make the cut to 145 lbs. more easily the second time in a row, while Palaszewski may have some issues in that area. Ultimately, that could be the deciding factor in which fighter comes out on top here.

PREDICTION: Griffin via unanimous decision

======FACEBOOK PRELIMINARY CARD QUICK PICKS======

* Brandon Vera over Eliot Marshall via unanimous decision
* Danny Downes over Ramsey Nijem via TKO in the second round
* Francis Carmont via submission over Chris Camozzi in the second round
* Dustin Jacoby over Clifford Starks via TKO in the first round

======CONFIDENCE AND BETTING CONTEST PICKS (WITH ASKREN-HIERON)======

12 - Askren - UD
11 - Penn - UD
10 - Nelson - TKO RD 2
9 - Mitrione - TKO RD 2
8 - Cerrone - SUB RD 2
7 - Jorgensen - UD
6 - Downes - TKO RD 2
5 - Hioki - SUB RD 3
4 - Griffin - UD
3 - Vera - UD
2 - Carmont - SUB RD 2
1 - Jacoby - TKO RD 1

$500 on Penn
$200 on Downes
$100 on Mitrione
$200 parlay on Penn, Mitrione, Cerrone