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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief
Jon Jones vs. Quinton "Rampage" Jackson (UFC Light Heavyweight Championship
This is the biggest test in Jon Jones' career thus far. Jackson has taken this fight as seriously as any he's had in the UFC, and regardless of the immense amount of talent we've seen out of Jones thus far in his UFC career, he's never faced a fighter with the level of durability and experience as Rampage.
The win over Shogun in March was fantastic, and Jones established himself as an elite fighter, but despite the path of destruction he's left in his wake we all need to pause on the expectations of him at 24 years old. He has been incredible to watch, and he will continue to be, but no one is unbeatable, and we still haven't seen how he'll react to adversity in a fight, something he absolutely will face in this fight against Rampage.
Jackson hasn't been as aggressive or as opportunistic over his last several fights as we've seen from him in the past, but that's not to say it's something he's completely lost. He's got power in his hands that, if they land, will hurt Jones. Will it be enough? That's what we'll find out on Saturday.
With what he's shown in his short UFC career, Jon Jones should win this fight. He's younger, he's faster, he's got an unorthodox, creative and exciting striking game and his grappling and ground and pound are treats to watch. But Rampage can win this fight. He can hurt Jones with his strikes and is a very durable and difficult opponent to stop. Ultimately, I think Jones will pass this test, but it's going to be a huge hurdle. The statement would be if he made it look easy, but I don't see this being that type of fight, not with Rampage's striking and defensive wrestling to make things more difficult.
PREDICTION: Jones via unanimous decision
Matt Hughes vs. Josh Koscheck (Welterweight)
Josh Koscheck might be taking this fight on only 19 day's notice, but he's coming off of a title fight of his own and is simply a better fighter in 2011 than is Matt Hughes.
Hughes pulled off a few good wins in a row before getting demolished by B.J. Penn last year, but there's nothing in his game that can threaten Koscheck at this stage of his career. Koscheck is a more credentialed wrestler and is fairly capable of out-grappling Hughes if the fight gets into the clinch, but neither is going to keep this one on the ground on Saturday.
On the feet, Koscheck is simply a lot faster than Hughes, and is likely going to be able to engage and back out before Hughes is able to counter. For as great as Hughes has been in his career, he's nearing the end, and I just can't see this being a fight he'll win.
PREDICTION: Koscheck via TKO in the first round
Travis Browne vs. Rob Broughton (Heavyweight)
We get to the drop off for this card from the top two fights here, with two talented but mid level-at-best heavyweights helping to fill this card out.
Broughton returns after nearly a year out of action after his UFC debut last October. The Wolfslair product is multi-faceted grappler and striker, but while he's got a lot of wins by both knockout and submission, he's not necessarily an elite talent in any aspect of the game.
Browne is still undefeated in his career, with a 2-0-1 mark in the UFC. His superman punch against Stefan Struve in his last fight was excellent, but that fight was fairly evenly contested prior to the perfectly placed punch.
Browne is a good enough grappler to keep the fight standing if Broughton tries to take him down, and his striking and height/reach advantage should play to his favor.
PREDICTION: Browne via TKO in the first round
Nate Diaz vs. Takanori Gomi (Lightweight)
Diaz returns to the lightweight division after getting manhandled by Rory MacDonald in his last fight, while Gomi hopes to rebound from his submission loss to Clay Guida in January.
Gomi has had problems with his submission losses in the past, including two submission losses in his three UFC fights. However, while Diaz had a couple of good performances in his move back to welterweight, he remains a middle-tier guy that does not always react the best to adversity in his fights.
If Gomi can work his power striking game and avoid submissions in this fight, he's got a good chance at taking the decision. Diaz is comfortable on his back, but that gets him into trouble and could again be his downfall in this fight if he can't finish Gomi.
PREDICTION: Gomi via unanimous decision
Ben Rothwell vs. Mark Hunt (Heavyweight)
Mark Hunt gets a pay-per-view fight after knocking out Chris Tuchscherer, and that's all you need to know about the quality of this fight card. Hunt has always had power, and he's got some big wins in Pride under his belt, but he's only 6-7, and lost six straight prior to the win over Tuchscherer.
Rothwell hasn't fought in over a year due to injury, but he's still a much better fighter than Hunt in 2011. He's a better grappler by far, and with a seven inch height advantage (and the ability to use that height), he'll have the advantage striking as well.
Hunt got the win over Tuchscherer to snap his losing streak, but he's not going to take out a fighter like Rothwell, even with the layoff Rothwell has had.
PREDICTION: Rothwell via submission in the first round
======Spike TV Preliminary Card======
Aaron Riley vs. Tony Ferguson (Lightweight)
Riley's a tough veteran with a ton of experience, but he is making his return to action after 16 months away from the cage, against a talented and dangerous striker in Ferguson.
Ferguson drops to lightweight for his first fight in the UFC after winning the 13th season of The Ultimate Fighter in June, and if he doesn't have any adverse effects from the weight cut I think he should do well.
Doing well doesn't mean he'll be blasting through Riley, as Riley is simply not a fighter that gets taken out easily. I think this is a fight that Ferguson should win, but Riley's a tough test and will give him a good fight.
PREDICTION: Ferguson via unanimous decision
Nick Ring vs. Tim Boetsch (Middleweight)
Tim Boetsch has lost four times in his career, but all of those losses were at light heavyweight against very tough competition. Outside of those losses Boetsch has mauled a number of competitors, including a dominating decision over Kendall Grove in his middleweight debut in May.
Ring is undefeated and is a very capable middleweight, but he hasn't competed against anything near the level of competition Boetsch has been in the cage against. Ring's got a slight height advantage, but that will be negated by Boetsch's strength and superior ability to press the pace.
This is Boetsch's fight to lose. He's simply much stronger and more experienced, and looked fantastic in his middleweight debut. If he can continue off of that, he could make a good run at 185 lbs.
* Eddie Yagin over Junior Assuncao via unanimous decision
* Cole Escovedo over Takeya Mizugaki via unanimous decision
* Ricardo Romero over James Te Huna via submission in the second round
======Confidence and Betting Contest Picks======
10 - Koscheck - TKO RD 1
9 - Boetsch - TKO RD 2
8 - Rothwell - SUB RD 1
7 - Browne - TKO RD 1
6 - Gomi - DEC
5 - Jones - DEC
4 - Yagin - DEC
3 - Ferguson - DEC
2 - Romero - SUB RD 2
1 - Escovedo - DEC
$400 on Boetsch
$300 on Gomi
$100 on Rampage
$200 parlay on Boetsch, Gomi and Yagin
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Jamie Penick, editor-in-chief
(mmatorcheditor@gmail.com)
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