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Matt Hughes vs. Renzo Gracie: I know Matt Hughes isn't who he used to be, and he's seemingly in the twilight of his career, but what the hell is he doing in there with Renzo Gracie? What are the UFC matchmakers thinking? Renzo Gracie hasn't fought in 3 years, and the guy's 43 years old.
Not everyone is Randy Couture, and able to fight into their 40's. Neither guy is really tearing it up lately, but this is a serious mismatch. Maybe someone will try to tell me that Renzo's a Gracie, and I need to give him more respect, but I'm not trying to disrespect him.
I am, however, a realist. I call a spade a spade. 4 years ago, when Hughes whipped Royce Gracie's ass all over the Octagon, I wasn't surprised one bit. So now, when Matt Hughes throws Renzo Gracie all over the Octagon and beats his ass, I won't be surprised either. Unless Matt Hughes trips on his way to the cage and breaks his arm, or has really gone downhill fast, he's going to crush Renzo.
Prediction: Hughes by Submission in the 2nd round
B.J. Penn vs. Frankie Edgar: I'll be rooting for Edgar in this one; I'm a fan of his blue-collar, bootstraps mentality, but I don't think he has much of a chance. B.J. is unquestionably one of the top 5 fighters in the world, and he's been a dominant Lightweight Champion.
Anything can happen in a fight, but this one doesn't look good for Edgar. In the past five years, B.J. has only lost three times, twice to Georges St. Pierre and once to Matt Hughes. There's no shame to losing to either of those guys, especially since the Hughes loss was over 3.5 years ago. Those losses were also at Welterweight.
B.J. has proven to be nearly unbeatable at Lightweight, easily dispatching guys like Diego Sanchez, Kenny Florian, Sean Sherk, and Joe Stevenson. B.J. has beaten all comers, and he's essentially cleared out the division. This fight is going to take place wherever B.J. wants it to be. If he wants it standing, it'll be a boxing match. If B.J. wants a ground war, it'll be a mat struggle.
B.J. is going to determine where the fight stays, then he's going to impose his will on Edgar. I want this fight to be close, but I don't think it will be. I think B.J. pummels Edgar and just chips away at him until there's nothing left. I hate to say that, because I really like Edgar, but this one's not close.
Prediction: Penn by TKO in the 3rd round
Anderson Silva vs. Demian Maia: One of these days, someone's going to come along and beat Anderson Silva's ass. This is not that day. Demian Maia is going to be destroyed. The only hope Maia has is to take the fight to the ground, and hope he gets into a favorable position.
That's not going to be easy, Silva's a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, training under Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. If the fight remains standing, Silva tears Maia apart. If the fight goes to the ground, Maia might be able to pull off the monumental upset. I can't see that happening, though, and I think Silva continues his path of destruction.
Maia might make it out of the first round, if he lays back and tries to bore Silva to death. That's the way to get Silva into the later rounds, we call it "pulling a Leites" after Thales Leites' pathetic mockery of fighting in his bout with Anderson Silva at UFC 97. However, if Maia engages Silva, the fight will be over very fast. I know Maia says he's been working on his wrestling, but I don't think that's enough to beat Silva, the best fighter in the world. Period.
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