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By: Wesley Walker, MMATorch Specialist
Main Event: Takanori Gomi +250 VS Kenny Florian -350
Prediction: Kenny Florian by decision
Betting Advice: Don’t bet on Kenny Florian because he is such a heavy favorite. I would place a small wager on Tanakori Gomi who had been 1st or 2nd in the world lightweight rankings ahead or behind B.J. Penn for a long time. He has fallen in the rankings due to losing some close bouts in Japan, but I believe he lost those fight due to underestimating his opponents and wanting to fight in Strikeforce or UFC.
Tanakori Gomi is in his first fight in the UFC, but has fought all over the world. This makes me believe that he will not be rattled at all by the big stage. Gomi has a great opportunity and a great chance to beat Kenny Florian being that Gomi really wants a rematch with B.J. Penn. I would bet the over on the rounds line because both of these guys can get out of anything that the other throws at them.
Co-Main Event: Stefan Struve +250 VS Roy Nelson -350
Prediction: Roy Nelson by unanimous decision
Betting Advice: Bet on Roy Nelson to win this fight because of his body. Roy Nelson’s belly is going to be a key in this fight because of Stefan Struve’s lanky stature. Roy Nelson can keep the fight standing long enough to work the fight to the ground and lay his huge frame and wear out Stefan Struve. Struve has great Jiu-Jitsu off his back, but Nelson is black belt and can get out of anything Struve puts him in bet on Nelson.
Undercard Fight: Ross Pearson -230 VS Dennis Siver +180
Prediction: Ross Pearson by unanimous decision
Betting Advice: Ross Pearson has impressed since the Ultimate Fighter show where he was clearly the best fighter on the show in the lightweight division. Dennis Siver is looking to upset two British fighters in a row after a TKO victory over Paul Kelly. That being said I would place my bet on Ross Pearson the odds are pretty low. I believe Ross Pearson is much stronger than Paul Kelly and a better wrestler which will allow him to keep the fight standing and work his superior striking game. Bet on Ross Pearson to continue his rise up the lightweight ladder.
Undercard Fight: Nate Quarry -300 VS Jorge Rivera +220
Prediction: Slug Fest where Nate Quarry barely wins a decision
Betting Advice: I would avoid betting on this fight because it can go either way. I can make a case for Nate Quarry or Jorge Rivera. I believe the X-factor in this fight is Nate Quarry’s ability to take tremendous amounts of punishment and keep going. I believe Quarry is going to be able take Jorge Rivera’s punches and be able to win a striking match. Jorge Rivera is a veteran and could be able to get a takedown and punish Quarry on the ground where Nate does not like to fight. My gut feeling is to bet on Quarry, but I would avoid this fight because of the high odds for Quarry when I believe the fight could go either way.
Undercard Fight: Andre Winner -210 VS Rafaello Oliveria +165
Prediction: Rafaello Oliveria by upset decision victory
Betting Advice: There are contrasting styles in this fight between Andre Winner and Rafaello Oliveria. Andre Winner will want the fight to remain standing and look to take advantage of his striking. Oliveria will look to get this fight to the ground and use his superior ground game to finish the fight by submission. I believe Andre Winner is too small and won’t be able to stuff Oliveria’s takedowns and he should be able to ground and pound Winner to a unanimous decision victory. Place a small bet on Oliveria I emphasize small bet because if the fight remains standing Winner could destroy Oliveria on the feet if Rafaello can not get the fight to the ground.
Undercard Fight: Jacob Volkmann +200 VS Ronnys Torres -260
Prediction: Ronnys Torres by unanimous decision
Betting Advice: Jacob Volkmann comes from the Minnesota Martial Arts Academy and the UFC believe that he would be a Sean Sherk type from the same camp. That has not happened and Volkmann has struggled with the step up in competition. Ronnys Torres got robbed in his fight with Melvin Guillard, as I believe he won that fight. Torres is so explosive and powerful I believe he takes Volkmann down or he can even punish him on his feet. Bet on Ronny Torres he is so quick and I really like this kid to have tremendous success down the line.
Undercard Fight: Rob Emerson +120 VS Nik Lentz -150
Prediction: Nik Lentz by unanimous decision
Betting Advice: Minnesota Martial Arts Academy fighter Nik Lentz should be able to take down Rob Emerson over and over. Rob Emerson is one of Dana White’s favorite fighters because of his explosive striking, but I believe that Emerson is a very overrated fighter and was coming off two losses in a row before he beat Philippe Nover. I believe Nik Lentz wins by decision with repeated takedowns. Bet on Lentz as he is a low favorite to win, but I believe he is a higher favorite than the lines indicate.
Undercard Fight: Caol Uno +220 VS Gleison Tibau -300
Prediction: Gleison Tibau by TKO
Betting Advice: I would bet strong on this fight because I believe that Gleison Tibau is way too big for Caol Uno. I can not believe they put these two together in a fight. Caol Uno was one of the early stars of the UFC and to have him comeback and go 0-3 now that’s pretty harsh in my mind. Tibau is going to slam Uno over and over again until his eventually finishes the fight. Tibau cuts weight to get to make 155 and Caol Uno just steps on the scale he is going to take tremendous punishment in this fight.
Undercard Fight: Yushin Okami -600 VS Lucio Linhares +400
Prediction: Yushin Okami by unanimous decision
Betting Advice: Yushin Okami can lose this fight, and I am surprised by this line being so high. I know Okami is an underrated fighter, but he struggles with fighters who take him down and work their top games. At a + 400 place a small bet on Lucio Linhares because he could win this fight and there is no money to bet on Okami
My Parlay
Nelson
Pearson
Tibau
Torres
Lentz
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Jamie Penick, editor-in-chief
(mmatorcheditor@gmail.com)
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