Amadi's Take
AMADI: Who Cost You Money at UFC 140? A Betting Breakdown of "Jones vs. Machida" event
Dec 11, 2011 - 3:45:16 PM AMADI: Who Cost You Money at UFC 140? A Betting Breakdown of "Jones vs. Machida" event

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By: Jason Amadi, MMATorch Columnist

UFC 140 was an excellent event that saw all the main card favorites dominate with only one exception. It was a good night of betting and there was a lot of money to be made with parlays last night.

Jon "Bones" Jones (-500) vs. Lyoto Machida (+350)

Gamblers should probably get used to these kinds of lines in Light Heavyweight Title fights, because Jon Jones looks like he's here to stay. The key to this fight going in was Lyoto Machida's ability to deal with the reach of Jones and leap in and out. Machida was successful in the first round of getting to Jones and wobbling him, but the second round really showcased what separates Jon Jones from the rest of the light heavyweight division: the ability to do serious, fight ending damage in a flash.

One takedown and an elbow was all it took for Jones to take control of the fight. The ability to change the game with that type of offense is what should make Jones the favorite against any fighter at 205 lbs. and below.

Despite Machida's stellar first round, there is no getting around the fact that his elusive style has been figured out. Mauricio Rua proved that twice, Quinton Jackson was able to get two rounds off of him and Jon Jones, after some adjustment, was able to put Machida to sleep inside two rounds.

Considering that Jones will either face Dan Henderson (a part-time middleweight) or Rashad Evans (a fighter that could easily fight at middleweight), there is no way these lines are going to change any time soon. However, this fight did show a weakness in Jon Jones' game: he doesn't react well to getting hit. That being said, looking at the light heavyweight field, there aren't too many strikers the caliber of Lyoto Machida who can also stay off of their back long enough to exploit Jones' questionable striking defense.

Frank Mir (-225) vs. Antonio Rodrigo "Minotauro" Nogueira (+175)

Heading into UFC 140, I was surprised to find that Frank Mir wasn't the biggest favorite on the card. While it's true Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira suffered from knee problems, hip problems and a staph infection leading up to their 2008 tilt, the general lack of head movement that did Nogueira in against Mir was present in later fights against Randy Couture, Cain Velasquez and Brendan Schaub.

However, that didn't even factor in to the fight. In fact, it was "Minotauro" that was getting the better of the boxing exchanges. Nogueira tagged Mir with big shots and almost returned the favor for his 2008 knockout loss, but it was Mir that shocked the world and outdid the vaunted Brazilian on the mat.

Frank Mir became the first man to ever knock out Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira in December 2008, and three years later he became the first man to ever submit Nogueira as well. Mir broke a bone as usual and left Nogueira with his arm dangling on the canvas beside him.

In terms of betting, Mir likely earned himself a date with Cain Velasquez with this performance, and a play on Mir at this point is looking pretty attractive. The skills that Mir showed in besting Nogueira on the floor really draw into question whether or not Velasquez would even feel comfortable shooting in on him. On the feet, they both have a history of eating shots and going down, but Mir probably packs a bit more power.

As for Nogueira, this loss wasn't the worst thing in the world. He, Mir, and Fabricio Werdum are the three best submission grapplers in the heavyweight division, so there's no shame in this submission loss. This performance actually proved that "Big Nog" is still a relevant fighter and dangerous for anyone in the division. He'd definitely beat most heavyweights in the world at this point, but Frank Mir just has his number memorized. 

Antonio Rogerio "Minotoro" Nogueira (-260) vs. Tito Ortiz (+200)

At this point, there is no way to justify betting on Tito Ortiz against a top level fighter. Ortiz, like most fighters of his generation, was really good at doing one thing and was merely decent at everything else. The sad thing about that generation of fighters is that they actually got better with age. In terms of technique, fighters like Matt Hughes, Frank Shamrock and Tito Ortiz have probably never been better. But age and over a decade in the fight game will catch up to anyone, and that's what has happened to Tito Ortiz.

A big part of the reason Ortiz has been able to avoid being knocked unconscious in MMA for all these years is that he is regularly able to shield his brain from trauma with his massive forearms. Recently, Lyoto Machida, Rashad Evans, and now Antonio Rogerio Nogueira have picked up on this and made him pay with knees to the body.

This was the expected outcome and Nogueira delivered. "Minotoro" is a fairly safe bet against most fighters in the light heavyweight field. Of course, by "most in the light heavyweight field," I mean guys who aren't explosive wrestlers and relentless in their pursuit of takedowns.

Claude "The Prince" Patrick (-115) vs. Brian "Bad Boy" Ebersole (-115)

This fight was every bit as close as the betting line indicated. The fight went down to the wire and the judges' decision was debatable. There isn't all that much to unpack from a betting perspective here, but this fight does tell us a lot about how the judges feel about fighters diving on guillotines.

In this fight, much like the Mark Bocek-Nik Lentz fight before it, one fighter was consistently on top but his opponent dove on a few chokes that didn't really go anywhere. In many situations diving on a guillotine is an act of desperation and it should be taken into consideration that even a fully locked in guillotine may not elicit a tap. Brian Ebersole saying that he's found the guillotine choke to be a "myth" in his martial arts experience might have rubbed some people the wrong way, but that's true for some people.

How many locked in chokes has Benson Henderson found himself in recently? How many times have we seen Jon Fitch in locked in chokes? Some people's arteries are deeper in their necks and some people are able to defend in a way where they're never in danger. I personally feel like crediting every guillotine attempt as a "near finish" is misinformed and patently absurd.

Mark "The Machine" Hominick (-500) vs. Chan Sung "The Korean Zombie" Jung (+350)

Mark Hominick was the big favorite heading in to the fight and that was completely justified. Perhaps -500 was a bit much, but Hominick is one of the cleanest strikers in MMA, he's good off of his back and has decent wrestling. Unfortunately for "The Machine," he overcommitted to a punch and got clipped by Chan Sung Jung.

There aren't a ton of big names in the featherweight division at the moment, but with this victory "The Korean Zombie" is now one of them. That likely means that his next fight is going to against someone above the level of Mark Hominick and I'm not sure this type of victory can be replicated.

Not only did Jung knock out one of the best strikers in MMA, but he tied the official UFC record for fastest knockout in the process. Jung is a big puncher and this fight really ups his status in the division, but from a betting perspective, I'm not sure what changes. I'm not sure we can say that we learned anything new about Jung here, as he was just able to capitalize on an uncharacteristic mistake by Mark Hominick and wasted him.
 
If they were to fight again, I feel like I would still be inclined to pick Mark Hominick because of his usual technical superiority. I don't believe in "getting lucky" in professional sports, but I do believe in flukes. I feel as though this outcome was as close to a fluke as you can get in MMA, but it's entirely possible that it wasn't and that Jung will continue to succeed in the division. I just don't feel like that's the most likely scenario.
 
You can follow me on Twitter @JasonAmadi and direct your "Ask the Torch" questions to mmatorch@gmail.com