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Amadi's Take
AMADI: Who Cost You Money at UFC 139? A Betting Breakdown of Henderson vs. Rua Event
Nov 20, 2011 - 9:00:21 PM
AMADI: Who Cost You Money at UFC 139? A Betting Breakdown of Henderson vs. Rua Event
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By: Jason Amadi, MMATorch Columnist

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Betting on mixed martial arts can be difficult. MMA is a sport where hyperbole and platitudes are often passed off as quality fight analysis. As a result, fans are often confused when it comes to predicting outcomes and making coin off your favorite fighters. Well fret no longer, this is the debut of a new column dedicated to maximizing your ability to predict future fights and aiding your filthy gambling habit.

UFC 139 was a great card if you love underdogs. According to the lines on Bodog.com, the underdogs came through on every main card fight with the exception of Brian Bowles.

Dan Henderson (+125) vs. Mauricio Rua (-155)

The most interesting thing about this fight from a betting perspective is that it was a five round fight. Neither of these fighters have ever had great cardio. Forget the "Dan Henderson has cardio for days at 205" nonsense. That isn't true. Forget the "Shogun only gasses after a long layoff" foolishness. That's never been true either.

These are two incredibly dangerous fighters with cardio issues and that made for a supremely exciting fight. There are two big takeaways here if you're concerned with who to bet on in the future: Henderson's cardio is just as big a liability at 205 as it 185, and Shogun's knees prevent him from moving the way he needs to. Shogun was right in front of Henderson for the majority of the first three rounds and was unable to dart in and out or use much lateral movement. Against fighters who pack the kind of punch that Dan Henderson does, Shogun's lack of movement will cost him rounds, if not get him knocked out.

A bet on Dan Henderson is a bet on that big right hand to land early. He's probably going to get that done against most fighters he faces against 205 or 185, but it just so happens Mauricio Rua has one of the best chins in the sport.

Against elite competition, you might want to be careful laying cake on Shogun. His cardio has never been great, his knees are always going to be an issue, but he's a supremely talented fighter. It's a tricky situation for sure, but against guys with big power or great wrestling, remember to avoid Shogun at all costs.


Urijah Faber (-210) vs. Brian Bowles (+170)

Like Miguel Torres, Urijah Faber was a dominant champion at a point where the lower weight classes weren't nearly as established as they are now. Unlike Torres, Faber has been consistent enough to earn title opportunities before falling short against the elite of the featherweight and bantamweight divisions.

On Saturday night, Faber was able to secure himself his fourth title shot in about three years. That may seem excessive, but it's because he is so much better than most of the bantamweight and featherweight divisions, and it showed against Brian Bowles.

Faber has the kind of speed and explosion that you imagine a lighter weight athlete should have. He was on a totally different level when it came to speed, technique, and strength and showed why he was the only favorite on the card to pull off the win.

Considering Faber's next fight is against a fighter that may be faster, stronger, and more explosive than him, he's probably going to have a rough time. Dominick Cruz was able to dance circles around and get takedowns against Faber in the past. A third meeting between Cruz and Faber favors the champion, but Faber has the power and speed to catch him, and could be worth a play.

Cung Le (-225) vs. Wanderlei Silva (+175)

You probably won't find many people willing to argue that the Wanderlei Silva of today is as good as the Wanderlei Silva that spent five years as Pride Middleweight Champion. However, that's not what this fight was about. This fight was about whether or not Cung Le had the skills to find Silva's chin and whether or not Le had the firepower to fell "The Axe Murderer" in the fashion in which Dan Henderson, Mirko Cro Cop, Quinton Jackson, and Chris Leben were able.

Ultimately, what we found out is what many have suspected for a long time; Cung Le isn't enough of a high level mixed martial arts fighter to survive Wanderlei Silva. Le was able to find Silva's chin, but just didn't have the skills to do so with regularity or close the show when he did. "The Axe Murderer" was a huge step up in competition for Le and knew enough about distance to effectively shut down his kicking game. Without the ability to do damage with his kicks, Le tired out and wasn't competent enough with his hands to exchange with Silva.

Wanderlei Silva isn't “back.” He proved against Keith Jardine, Michael Bisping and now Cung Le that he's still capable of beating good fighters. Silva's problem is facing off against heavy hitters and remaining conscious.

There's a good chance you won't have to worry about putting money on Cung Le in the future unless it's to see him in theaters, but with a win, Wanderlei Silva lives to fight on. Against measured strikers without the punching power of a Chris Leben or Dan Henderson, "The Axe Murderer" still has a chance to stick around at 185.

With the right matchup, Wanderlei can still bring the violence pretty strong. As cold as it may sound, Wanderlei Silva has been concussed so many times that he's going to be the underdog for most of his fights. If the UFC puts him up against the right style matchup, Silva can still make you money.

Martin Kampmann (+115) vs. Rick Story (-145)

There are plenty of fighters whose styles appeal to the judges. Unfortunately, Martin Kampmann is not one of those fighters. Kampmann entering this fight as a slight underdog was completely appropriate.

While the Dane is a kickboxer by trade, he's more of a sharpshooter than he is a power puncher. If you bet on Story here, it was likely because of you were expecting the Rick Story that fought Thiago Alves earlier this year to meet the Martin Kampmann that couldn't stay off the fence against Diego Sanchez and Paul Daley.

Instead, Martin Kampmann turned to his grappling, which usually gets him more victories than his striking. It turned out to be Story who spent much of the fight with his back against the fence, defending the takedowns of Martin Kampmann.

Though Story is a good wrestler and was able to get past quality grapplers like Johny Hendricks in the past, lately he's been unable to deal with guys like Charlie Brenneman and Martin Kampmann who pressure him with takedowns the way he's used to doing to his opponents.

In the future, be careful about laying money on Story against fighters capable of dictating the pace. "The Horror" seems to love being the hammer, but can't quite come back from being the nail.

Stephan Bonnar (+120) vs. Kyle Kingsbury (-150)

Kyle Kingsbury looks like an Adonis, fights out of one of the best camps in the sport, and Stephan Bonnar lost to Mark Coleman. Bonnar heading into this fight as the underdog made all the sense in the world in that regard. But betting on Kingsbury to win against a fighter who's never been finished, means that you're betting on the conditioning of a big, rocked up light heavyweight who's known to fade late.

The key to this fight was whether or not Kingsbury could out-wrestle Bonnar early, establish a lead and ride out the clock to get a decision victory. Kingsbury's wrestling failed him here, as it was Bonnar who controlled the wrestling throughout and secured himself a unanimous decision victory in one of his best performances to date.

Moving forward, be careful about picking Kingsbury to win against durable fighters. At 205, Kingsbury's cardio is a real liability and unless he can fell a guy early, he's likely to give up rounds late.


Feel free to follow me on Twitter @JasonAmadi. There, I'll ridicule you for your fight picks in 140 characters or less.


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