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By: Griffin Marsh, MMATorch Contributor
During the week leading up to UFC 116, I used my column to predict a 1st round KO for Shane Carwin over UFC Heavyweight Champion Brock Lesnar. I was sure Lesnar would not be able to handle Carwin's boxing and felt Carwin would more than hold his own in the wrestling department, which I inferred would be enough to dethrone the champion. WRONG!!! Brock Lesnar took everything Carwin could muster and not only controlled him with his wrestling but managed to pull off a slick arm triangle choke to finish Carwin in the second round to remain the Undisputed UFC Heavyweight Champion.
This Saturday Night Cain Velasquez will try to do what Carwin was unable to, beat Brock Lesnar. While Lesnar does possess more raw power and definitely has the size advantage, I feel Cain is strong enough and more than capable of holding his own with Lesnar while grappling. This fight I feel will not come down to who has the best wrestling, nor who is bigger. Toughness will be the single most important skill during this fight.
Each man is more than capable of finishing the other. While I questioned the toughness of Lesnar prior to his bout with Carwin I cannot be foolish to feel the same way about him going into this fight. The most powerful (punching) heavyweight in the world hit Lesnar with everything he had for a solid round and Brock did exactly what a great champion should, he took it and still finished the fight. I personally was pulling for an immediate rematch, especially after Juice Sonnen was granted one immediately based on his "dominating" performance. In my mind, Carwin dominated Lesnar during the opening part of that fight more than Sonnen did Anderson Silva, but the dollars didn't make sense and no re-match was granted to Carwin.
I feel Cain has to come into the Octagon and right away use his speed, elusiveness and boxing to drag Lesnar into the latter rounds, where Lesnar has never been. Will Cain be tough enough to withstand Lesnar's ground and pound? Will Cain be tough enough to take punishment from his back and still gain dominant position? Unlike Brock Lesnar, Cain's toughness just hasn't been tested. Chiek Kongo did a nice job using powerful, accurate punches to buckle Velasquez, but in my mind that is hardly comparable to Shane Carwin punching you repeatedly for three solid minutes.
Brock Lesnar has done everything he should to be a great champion. He has taken plenty of criticisim from people like me and has proven us wrong. His striking lacks, his clinch work lacks but all he does is win. Brock is a huge, athletic, powerful heavyweight unlike any we’ve seen in MMA history. But more importantly, he’s one of the toughest heavyweights in MMA history.
Marsh's Pick: I see Brock coming out and trying to establish his will and dominance immediately. I feel Cain will be able to hold his own with Brock on the ground, and will actually fair much better during their clinch work. In my mind, it just comes down to whether Cain Velasquez is tough enough to take Brock Lesnar into the championship rounds. I feel he is, and that he will use his boxing and cardio to drag the champion into the latter rounds. I see this fight ending by TKO in the 4th with Cain Velasquez crowned the new UFC Heavyweight Champion. (If Brock proves me wrong yet again, I will not pick against him again!)
Jamie Penick, editor-in-chief
(mmatorcheditor@gmail.com)
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